Mortgage News Daily 的首席运营官 Matthew Graham 在一份客户报告中表示： "市场此前对2025年再有三次降息的预期过于乐观，而这并不符合美联储的意愿。市场几乎 百分之百确信12月会再降息一次。但美联储并没有这么确定，鲍威尔昨天也特意强调了这一 点。其结果就是，收益率出现了小幅回调，回到一个更合理的水平：即市场认为12月降息仍 有相当可能，但并非板上钉钉。" 最近利率下跌引发了再融资申请激增，根据抵押贷款银行家协会的数据，上周再融资申请同比增长了 111%。但较低的利率对潜在购房者的刺激作用却不明显。 周二，美国30年期固定利率的平均房贷利率曾下降至6.13%，与9月16日的近期低点持平，也就是美联 储公布上一次降息的前一天，同时也是过去一年来的最低水平。 但本周，在美联储宣布降息并且鲍威尔在记者会上回答提问后，30年期房贷利率在周三跳升了14个基 点，并在周四再涨6个基点，达到6.33%，比周二高出整整20个基点。在上一次9月降息时，30年期房贷 利率甚至更高，达到6.37%。 尽管美联储周三如期降息，并宣布12月1日起停止量化紧缩，但美国房贷利率的走势却给出了鹰派回 应。 ...

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]