2025.11. 19 本文字数：4045，阅读时长大约7分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 "之前做代理，每天都需要释放些好消息来刺激客户，但是现在不用了，客户变多，反而盘源比较紧 张。"李巍现任香港中原地产首席营业董事，在香港从事房地产工作已有近30年时间。 在历经了过去4年的调整后，香港楼市如今又重现热闹景象——众多新盘销售火爆，客户大手笔横扫 整层房源，租金回报率达到4厘，外国客户重回市场…… 成交数据表现亦十分亮眼。据中原地产数据，10月份一手成交突破1700宗，已连续第九个月企稳千 宗以上，追平2019年3月至11月的最长纪录；同时，全月录得至少64宗成交金额逾5000万元的大额 交易，创一年新高，涉及总金额逾68亿元。 买家重返香港楼市的背后，一方面是"撤辣"及一系列政策组合拳使得香港购房税负减弱，刺激需求释 放，另一方面是美联储降息周期下，带动香港房贷利率跟随下行，居民购房负担亦持续降低，同时租 金收益率的稳定回升也使得资产配置方向 再 发生变化。 业内认为，历经多轮周期的香港楼市，当前已经出现止跌回稳势头。摩根士丹利、花旗等国际大行均 认为，香港地产市场在2025年走出低谷后，将进一步复苏，进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% by the end of 2028, primarily due to increasing government deficits and economic pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Predictions - The average mortgage rate has remained above 6% for the past three years, currently at 6.27% [4]. - The MBA's economic research team forecasts that mortgage rates will stay above 6% until 2028, despite potential short-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Some institutions are slightly more optimistic, predicting rates may dip below 6% by the end of 2026, but experts remain skeptical [5]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - Despite high interest rates, the volume of home sales is expected to slightly increase, with an estimated 5 million homes sold next year, up from 4.8 million this year, due to increased housing supply [10]. - National home prices are predicted to decline for several quarters before gradually recovering by the end of 2027 [12]. - Regional disparities in housing prices are significant, with states like Florida and Colorado experiencing price drops due to increased supply, while states like New York and Illinois see faster price increases due to limited supply [13]. Group 3: Financial Burdens on Homebuyers - The current median monthly mortgage payment is approximately $2,067, which, while slightly lower than peak levels, remains significantly higher than five years ago [14]. - Many buyers are shifting to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or FHA loans to reduce monthly payments [15]. - Rising property taxes and homeowners' insurance add to the financial strain on both prospective and current homeowners [16][17].

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic data, including the September CPI report, causing confusion and concern among the public and investors [1][4] - Political disputes between the two parties are impacting essential services and the livelihoods of federal employees, with no resolution in sight [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding economic indicators is creating volatility in the markets, with investors unsure about interest rate decisions and inflation trends [4] Political Disputes - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is characterized by a lack of compromise, with both sides using budget negotiations as leverage [3] - The shutdown has resulted in significant consequences for federal employees, with many facing unpaid leave or working without pay [3][5] - The political impasse is likened to a standoff that neglects the real-life implications for ordinary citizens, who are left to navigate financial uncertainty [3][4] Economic Impact - The delay in releasing the CPI and employment data is causing anxiety among the public, as these figures are crucial for understanding economic conditions and making financial decisions [1][4] - Small business owners are feeling the pressure, with rising costs and uncertainty about pricing strategies due to the lack of reliable economic data [4] - The stock market is experiencing fluctuations as investors react to the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate changes and inflation [4] Public Sentiment - There is a growing sense of frustration among citizens who feel their daily lives are being disrupted by political maneuvering [3][5] - Stories of individuals struggling to make ends meet highlight the human cost of the government shutdown and the political stalemate [3][4] - The public is increasingly concerned about the long-term implications of the shutdown on essential services and economic stability [5]

Core Viewpoint - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. has risen to 6.34%, marking a continuous increase over the past two weeks, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds [1][1][1] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.3% a week ago and 6.12% a year ago to 6.34% [1][1][1] - Despite expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, economists predict that the average mortgage rate will remain around 6.5% by the end of the year [1][1][1] Market Impact - The recent decline in mortgage rates over the past few months has boosted potential homebuyers' confidence, leading to an increase in existing home sales [1][1][1] - The ongoing federal government shutdown, resulting from a budget impasse between Republicans and Democrats, could negatively impact the real estate market if it persists [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR has remained unchanged for three months since its reduction in May, with industry experts suggesting that there is little necessity for short-term policy adjustments, although further declines in LPR are still possible in the future [1][8]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Market Expectations - The LPR quotation has remained stable for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year [5]. - The recent stability in policy rates has maintained the pricing foundation for LPR, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming the new pricing anchor [5]. - The current low levels of corporate and personal loan rates, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, indicate a decline of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [5]. Group 2: Future LPR Adjustments - Analysts predict that the LPR linked to housing loans may be adjusted downward in the second half of the year to stabilize the real estate market [2][13]. - Despite the potential for future adjustments, the necessity for a short-term reduction in LPR is considered low, with any adjustments likely to be postponed [8][10]. - The overall monetary policy remains supportive, but the likelihood of aggressive easing measures in the short term is low, as the economy shows signs of recovery [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, suggesting that the pressure to meet annual growth targets is manageable [7]. - The People's Bank of China is in a "comfortable zone" regarding multiple economic targets, indicating no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing [7]. - The potential for further easing measures, such as interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, may be influenced by external factors, including actions by the Federal Reserve [12][11].

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3% and for 5-year and above at 3.5%, unchanged for three consecutive months [1] - In May, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.50% [4] - Current mortgage rates in Xi'an are 3.15% for new loans and 3.2% for existing loans, with public fund first loan rate at 2.6% and second loan rate at 3.075% [4] Group 2 - There are expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September, influenced by a likely rate cut from the Federal Reserve [4] - If the LPR decreases, Xi'an may experience a new wave of interest rate cuts in September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has significantly downgraded its forecast for the U.S. housing market, predicting that home sales in 2025 will hit a 30-year low, with total transactions expected to reach only 4 million units, a decline of 1.5% from 2024 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market is experiencing unprecedented stagnation due to high mortgage rates, which are limiting buyer affordability and discouraging sellers from listing their properties [3][7]. - The anticipated average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans in 2025 has been revised upward to 6.7%, with only a slight decrease to 6.4% by year-end, compared to earlier expectations of 6.3% [8][10]. - Active listings in the U.S. have surpassed 1 million for the first time since late 2019, yet this increase in inventory has not translated into higher sales due to affordability constraints [10][12]. Group 2: Seller Behavior - Many sellers are opting to withdraw their listings rather than reduce prices, with delistings increasing by 47% year-over-year in May, indicating a trend of holding out for better market conditions [12][14]. - Despite the drop in sales, home prices are projected to rise by 2.5% in 2025, reflecting a surprising price stickiness in a market where transactions are plummeting [12][14]. Group 3: Construction and First-Time Buyers - New home construction is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2025, with single-family home starts projected at only 980,000 units, a stark contrast to earlier forecasts of a 13.8% increase [14][15]. - The typical age of first-time homebuyers has reached a record high of 38 years, with homeownership rates expected to fall to 65.2% in 2025, down from 65.6% in 2024 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is sending a severe warning to the U.S. economy, with high home prices and interest rates suppressing sales and creating a challenging environment for buyers and builders [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to become a significant headwind for economic growth, described as a "red signal flare" by Mark Zandi [2]. - Unless mortgage rates, currently near 7%, decrease significantly, home sales, new constructions, and prices are likely to decline sharply [2]. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency director has called for interest rate cuts, criticizing the Federal Reserve's actions as unjust [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 6.83%, leading to high monthly payments for homebuyers, such as $2,900 for a $425,000 home with a 10% down payment [2]. - Despite an increase in available listings, buyer interest remains low, with builders abandoning promotional strategies due to high costs [2]. - Many builders are delaying land purchases, indicating a rapid decline in new home sales, starts, and completions [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. home price growth will hit a 14-year low this year, with only a 0.5% increase expected in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, significantly lower than previous forecasts [3][5]. - The stagnation in prices, increased supply, and high interest rates are identified as the main factors affecting the market [5]. - Approximately 15% of the 381 cities surveyed by Goldman Sachs may see home prices drop by over 5% in the next two years [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. real estate market is facing challenges, with a significant slowdown in home price growth in April, closely related to high mortgage rates [1] - The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates a year-over-year increase of only 2.7% in home prices, the lowest since summer 2023, down from 3.4% in March [1] - Monthly home prices fell by 0.31% in April, marking the largest single-month decline since December 2022, exceeding market expectations of a slight decrease of 0.02% [1] Group 2 - High mortgage rates are a primary factor contributing to the slowdown in home price growth, making it difficult for potential buyers to afford homes [1] - The National Association of Realtors has reported the weakest performance for the real estate market since 2009, indicating a broader trend of market fatigue [1] - Despite a slight rebound in May, overall performance remains weak, with high mortgage costs continuing to suppress housing demand [1] Group 3 - Nicholas Goldke from S&P Dow Jones indicates that the real estate market is undergoing a profound transformation, with the era of rapid price increases ending [2] - Local factors are increasingly influencing home price trends, with significant disparities observed among major cities [2] - For instance, New York saw a year-over-year price increase of 7.9%, while Tampa and Dallas experienced declines of 2.2% and 0.2%, respectively [2] Group 4 - The fluctuation of mortgage rates is identified as a key factor affecting home price trends, with Federal Reserve monetary policy changes expected to have a lasting impact on the real estate market [2] - Historical data suggests a six-month lag between home price growth and the Federal Reserve's bank reserve levels, indicating potential continued pressure on home prices in the coming months [2] - The current decline in home prices is associated with the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, contrasting with past experiences where rate cuts led to accelerated price increases [2]