中新社华盛顿2月26日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国住房金融机构房地美(FreddieMac)当地时间26日公布数据显 示，美国30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率降至5.98%，是自2022年9月8日以来首次降至6%以下。 据抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage BankersAssociation)数据显示，本周抵押贷款申请量(包括购房贷款或 现有抵押贷款再融资)较上周增加0.4%。 自2022年以来，美国房地产市场因为房贷利率居高不下等因素一直处于低迷状态。美国全国房地产经纪 商协会数据显示，2025年全年美国成屋销售量为406万套，是自1995年以来的最低值。(完) 美国房贷利率受美联储联邦基金利率和美国10年期国债收益率等因素影响。美国10年期国债收益率当天 降至4.02%，一周前该数据为4.07%。 受美联储去年连续三次降息影响，房贷利率去年下半年整体呈下降趋势。今年以来，一直维持在6%以 上。 美媒分析认为，房贷利率的下降可以增强潜在购房者的购买力，对房地产市场是"好消息"。随着30年期 房贷利率三年多来首次降至6%以下，更多购房者和卖房者会进入市场，预计今年春季房地产市场将回 暖。 数据显示，美国30年期固 ...

2026年刚开年，各路大佬又开始了对楼市的新一轮"预言大会"。有人说要反弹，有人说还得跌，有人说"横盘稳着走"。 听多了是不是会更迷糊？ 那好吧，本期内容，我们不说虚的、不玩概念，就用踏踏实实的数据，把2026年楼市可能的走向，真话或许不中听，但往往最值钱。 01、房子没卖多少，"惜售"房东却变多了 不知道你注意到没有，最近二手房挂牌量好像没有以前那么"汹涌"了。 一组比较有趣的数据是，一般3-4月、9-10月是新挂牌房源的小高峰，早就成了一种定局，但是有意思的是，有些挂了很久还没有卖掉的"老房源"正在慢慢 的减少，是不是都卖了？ 不是！是很多房东自己主动撤牌了，他们之所以不想挂，原因其实不难理解。 有的挂了一半多不卖了，干脆直接下架观望一下；有的被中介或者身边人劝着以为"很快就会有回暖"…… 这种情绪，就叫"惜售情绪"，很像股市里"筹码被锁住了"的感觉，卖的人暂时不想卖，买的人在等。 再看需求端：买房的人气不爆，但也没断崖下跌，基本处于一个中间线，两边一对比，房源在减少，买家在犹豫，供需天平正在发生很微妙的倾斜。 市场还没热，但情绪已经在悄悄变化。 02、租售比2.47%，楼市触底了吗？ 咱们拿香港做一下参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy adjustments, including lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans and maintaining a loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize the housing market [6][15]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans from 50%-60% to 30%, significantly reducing the entry barrier for purchasing commercial properties nationwide [6][7]. - The PBOC plans to lower the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, which will help increase banks' lending capacity in key areas [9]. - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and will continue to flexibly use various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, to support economic stability [11][12][15]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Predictions - The PBOC has indicated that there is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts in 2026, as the banking sector's net interest margin has shown signs of stabilization [10][15]. - International investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the PBOC may implement a "double cut" in the first quarter of 2026, which includes a 50 basis point reduction in the RRR and a 10 basis point cut in the policy interest rate [15]. - The overall expectation is that housing loan rates and personal housing provident fund loan rates will likely see further reductions in 2026, aligning with the ongoing easing measures [15]. Group 3: Housing Market Dynamics - Recent reports suggest that a subsidy policy for new home loans may be introduced, covering loans from September 2025 to August 2026, with a potential interest subsidy of 1% or 40-100 basis points [17][18]. - Some cities, like Wuhan, have already trialed interest subsidy policies, but the overall market response has been muted, indicating that the impact of such measures may be limited [20]. - New regulations in cities like Tianjin are being introduced to prevent significant price drops in new homes, with price fluctuations capped at 10% for new projects and 15% for existing ones [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment [1][6][12]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has not changed since May 2025, indicating a period of stability in interest rates [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts in 2026, particularly in relation to consumer and mortgage loan rates [3][14]. - The current LPR pricing is influenced by stable market rates, including the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which remains at 1.4% [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing LPR - Multiple factors are constraining the LPR, including stable financing costs for commercial banks and pressures to maintain net interest margins [10][12]. - The recent stability in the LPR is attributed to strong export performance and rapid development in high-tech manufacturing sectors [12]. - Analysts suggest that the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is diminishing, making it less urgent to lower the LPR at this time [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a consensus among market participants that there is still potential for further reductions in consumer and mortgage loan rates, as they are currently at historical lows [14]. - Predictions indicate that the LPR may have room to decrease in 2026, supported by lower deposit rates and a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by the PBOC [15][16]. - External factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, may ease constraints on China's market rates, potentially leading to broader monetary policy adjustments [17].

Core Insights - The current housing market is showing improved affordability for homebuyers due to lower mortgage rates, easing home prices, and increased supply [1] Group 1: Home Prices - National home prices are essentially flat compared to a year ago, with a slight increase of 0.3% year over year [2] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index indicates significant disparities among metropolitan markets, with cities like Chicago, New York, and Cleveland experiencing the largest gains, while Tampa, Phoenix, and Dallas saw the biggest losses [3] - National home prices are lagging behind consumer inflation, with October's CPI estimated at 3.1%, leading to a slight decline in inflation-adjusted home values over the past year [4] Group 2: Mortgage Rates - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has decreased to 6.19%, down from over 7% at the beginning of the year, resulting in substantial savings for homebuyers [5] - For a buyer putting down 20% on a $410,000 home, the monthly payment is currently $200 less than it was a year ago, indicating that lower rates and prices are making homes more affordable for first-time buyers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is not experiencing a recovery cycle despite significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024-2025, remaining in a "weak supply and demand" state [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The demand side is negatively impacted by high housing prices, elevated mortgage rates, and an affordability crisis, leading to a decline in home buying and mortgage demand, with 2025 new and existing home sales expected to be lower than in 2024 [3][4]. - On the supply side, the existing home market is constrained by a "lock-in effect," resulting in tight inventory, while new home supply is affected by rising material tariffs and interest rate fluctuations, keeping U.S. housing prices elevated [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Policy Implications - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, the potential for "Trump housing reform" is anticipated, which may focus on reducing mortgage costs, activating supply markets, and further interest rate cuts, including proposals to extend mortgage terms and make mortgage rates transferable [1][5]. - However, significant interest rate cuts may not effectively translate to lower mortgage rates due to legislative and judicial constraints, along with tariff risk premiums and construction cycle delays, making it difficult for the real estate supply-demand structure to reverse in the short term [2][5]. Group 3: Indicators for Monitoring the Real Estate Cycle - To observe the U.S. real estate cycle, monitoring the spread between current mortgage rates and existing mortgage rates is crucial, with historical data indicating that a spread of 90-100 basis points, corresponding to around 5% mortgage rates, could signal the start of a real estate cycle [6].

Group 1 - The 1-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a stable interest rate environment for now, but signals suggest that a rate cut may occur as early as January next year [1] - In Suzhou, the mainstream banks are offering a first home loan interest rate of 3.0%, which is seen as the "invisible lower limit" for mortgage rates, with banks likely to maintain this level even if the LPR is reduced [2][3] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference confirmed the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy into 2026, emphasizing the flexible use of various policy tools such as rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [4] Group 2 - Market predictions indicate at least one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction in the coming year, with the potential for more if necessary, reflecting an increased monetary policy space compared to the past two years [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have provided greater flexibility for China's monetary policy operations, with a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points in the current cycle [6] - A new policy from the central bank allows individuals to repair their credit records for overdue payments under certain conditions, which could facilitate future home loan approvals [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence after a four-year adjustment period, driven by a combination of policy changes, lower mortgage rates, and increased buyer confidence, particularly from foreign investors [3][4][8]. Market Performance - In October, the number of new property transactions exceeded 1,700, marking the ninth consecutive month with over 1,000 transactions, matching the record from March to November 2019 [3][4]. - Significant transactions included at least 64 deals exceeding 50 million HKD, totaling over 6.8 billion HKD, the highest in a year [3][4]. - The new property market has seen a total of 15,900 transactions by October 27, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [6][8]. Buyer Dynamics - The market is characterized by a shortage of available properties, with many large buyers purchasing entire floors, leaving little for first-time buyers [4][5]. - The influx of mainland buyers is notable, with nearly 9,900 transactions recorded in the first three quarters, expected to exceed 12,000 by year-end [6][8]. Policy Impact - The government's removal of additional stamp duties in February 2024 significantly reduced the tax burden on buyers, leading to a surge in transactions [9][10]. - Subsequent measures, including adjustments to mortgage limits and investment immigration policies, further stimulated demand [10][11]. Price Trends - The overall price index for private residential properties rose by approximately 1.3% in September, marking four consecutive months of increases [8][21]. - The bidding process for properties has led to prices increasing by at least 30% compared to the previous year [8][9]. Rental Market - The rental yield has improved, with nearly 80% of surveyed properties showing rental returns exceeding mortgage rates, indicating a trend of "buying to rent" [15][18]. - The rental index has increased for ten consecutive months, reaching a six-year high, driven by rising demand from students and professionals [17][18]. Future Outlook - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan predict a sustained recovery in the Hong Kong housing market, with prices rebounding over 4% since March 2025 and expected to rise further by 5% by the end of 2026 [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% by the end of 2028, primarily due to increasing government deficits and economic pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Predictions - The average mortgage rate has remained above 6% for the past three years, currently at 6.27% [4]. - The MBA's economic research team forecasts that mortgage rates will stay above 6% until 2028, despite potential short-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Some institutions are slightly more optimistic, predicting rates may dip below 6% by the end of 2026, but experts remain skeptical [5]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - Despite high interest rates, the volume of home sales is expected to slightly increase, with an estimated 5 million homes sold next year, up from 4.8 million this year, due to increased housing supply [10]. - National home prices are predicted to decline for several quarters before gradually recovering by the end of 2027 [12]. - Regional disparities in housing prices are significant, with states like Florida and Colorado experiencing price drops due to increased supply, while states like New York and Illinois see faster price increases due to limited supply [13]. Group 3: Financial Burdens on Homebuyers - The current median monthly mortgage payment is approximately $2,067, which, while slightly lower than peak levels, remains significantly higher than five years ago [14]. - Many buyers are shifting to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or FHA loans to reduce monthly payments [15]. - Rising property taxes and homeowners' insurance add to the financial strain on both prospective and current homeowners [16][17].

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic data, including the September CPI report, causing confusion and concern among the public and investors [1][4] - Political disputes between the two parties are impacting essential services and the livelihoods of federal employees, with no resolution in sight [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding economic indicators is creating volatility in the markets, with investors unsure about interest rate decisions and inflation trends [4] Political Disputes - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is characterized by a lack of compromise, with both sides using budget negotiations as leverage [3] - The shutdown has resulted in significant consequences for federal employees, with many facing unpaid leave or working without pay [3][5] - The political impasse is likened to a standoff that neglects the real-life implications for ordinary citizens, who are left to navigate financial uncertainty [3][4] Economic Impact - The delay in releasing the CPI and employment data is causing anxiety among the public, as these figures are crucial for understanding economic conditions and making financial decisions [1][4] - Small business owners are feeling the pressure, with rising costs and uncertainty about pricing strategies due to the lack of reliable economic data [4] - The stock market is experiencing fluctuations as investors react to the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate changes and inflation [4] Public Sentiment - There is a growing sense of frustration among citizens who feel their daily lives are being disrupted by political maneuvering [3][5] - Stories of individuals struggling to make ends meet highlight the human cost of the government shutdown and the political stalemate [3][4] - The public is increasingly concerned about the long-term implications of the shutdown on essential services and economic stability [5]