中新社华盛顿10月2日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国住房金融机构房地美(Freddie Mac)当地时间2日公布数据显 示，美国30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率升至6.34%，已连续两周上涨。 数据显示，美国30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率当天升至6.34%，一周前该数据为6.3%，一年前该数据为 6.12%。 美国房贷利率受美联储联邦基金利率和美国10年期国债收益率等因素影响。美媒认为，美联储降息并不 一定会带来房贷利率的下降。受美联储降息预期影响，房贷利率自7月以来一直呈下降趋势，但自美联 储9月17日宣布降息以来，房贷利率已连续两周上涨。 尽管市场普遍预计美联储今年还将降息两次，但经济学家预计，30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率到年底仍 将维持在6.5%左右。 分析人士指出，过去几个月房贷利率的下降在一定程度上提振了潜在购房者的信心，成屋销售量出现上 涨。但联邦政府"停摆"如果持续下去，将对房地产市场带来不利影响。 由于共和党和民主党未能就临时预算案达成一致，美国联邦政府10月1日因资金用尽"停摆"。这是自 2019年以来美国联邦政府首次"停摆"。(完) ...

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR has remained unchanged for three months since its reduction in May, with industry experts suggesting that there is little necessity for short-term policy adjustments, although further declines in LPR are still possible in the future [1][8]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Market Expectations - The LPR quotation has remained stable for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year [5]. - The recent stability in policy rates has maintained the pricing foundation for LPR, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming the new pricing anchor [5]. - The current low levels of corporate and personal loan rates, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, indicate a decline of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [5]. Group 2: Future LPR Adjustments - Analysts predict that the LPR linked to housing loans may be adjusted downward in the second half of the year to stabilize the real estate market [2][13]. - Despite the potential for future adjustments, the necessity for a short-term reduction in LPR is considered low, with any adjustments likely to be postponed [8][10]. - The overall monetary policy remains supportive, but the likelihood of aggressive easing measures in the short term is low, as the economy shows signs of recovery [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, suggesting that the pressure to meet annual growth targets is manageable [7]. - The People's Bank of China is in a "comfortable zone" regarding multiple economic targets, indicating no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing [7]. - The potential for further easing measures, such as interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, may be influenced by external factors, including actions by the Federal Reserve [12][11].

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3% and for 5-year and above at 3.5%, unchanged for three consecutive months [1] - In May, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.50% [4] - Current mortgage rates in Xi'an are 3.15% for new loans and 3.2% for existing loans, with public fund first loan rate at 2.6% and second loan rate at 3.075% [4] Group 2 - There are expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September, influenced by a likely rate cut from the Federal Reserve [4] - If the LPR decreases, Xi'an may experience a new wave of interest rate cuts in September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has significantly downgraded its forecast for the U.S. housing market, predicting that home sales in 2025 will hit a 30-year low, with total transactions expected to reach only 4 million units, a decline of 1.5% from 2024 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market is experiencing unprecedented stagnation due to high mortgage rates, which are limiting buyer affordability and discouraging sellers from listing their properties [3][7]. - The anticipated average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans in 2025 has been revised upward to 6.7%, with only a slight decrease to 6.4% by year-end, compared to earlier expectations of 6.3% [8][10]. - Active listings in the U.S. have surpassed 1 million for the first time since late 2019, yet this increase in inventory has not translated into higher sales due to affordability constraints [10][12]. Group 2: Seller Behavior - Many sellers are opting to withdraw their listings rather than reduce prices, with delistings increasing by 47% year-over-year in May, indicating a trend of holding out for better market conditions [12][14]. - Despite the drop in sales, home prices are projected to rise by 2.5% in 2025, reflecting a surprising price stickiness in a market where transactions are plummeting [12][14]. Group 3: Construction and First-Time Buyers - New home construction is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2025, with single-family home starts projected at only 980,000 units, a stark contrast to earlier forecasts of a 13.8% increase [14][15]. - The typical age of first-time homebuyers has reached a record high of 38 years, with homeownership rates expected to fall to 65.2% in 2025, down from 65.6% in 2024 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is sending a severe warning to the U.S. economy, with high home prices and interest rates suppressing sales and creating a challenging environment for buyers and builders [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to become a significant headwind for economic growth, described as a "red signal flare" by Mark Zandi [2]. - Unless mortgage rates, currently near 7%, decrease significantly, home sales, new constructions, and prices are likely to decline sharply [2]. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency director has called for interest rate cuts, criticizing the Federal Reserve's actions as unjust [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 6.83%, leading to high monthly payments for homebuyers, such as $2,900 for a $425,000 home with a 10% down payment [2]. - Despite an increase in available listings, buyer interest remains low, with builders abandoning promotional strategies due to high costs [2]. - Many builders are delaying land purchases, indicating a rapid decline in new home sales, starts, and completions [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. home price growth will hit a 14-year low this year, with only a 0.5% increase expected in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, significantly lower than previous forecasts [3][5]. - The stagnation in prices, increased supply, and high interest rates are identified as the main factors affecting the market [5]. - Approximately 15% of the 381 cities surveyed by Goldman Sachs may see home prices drop by over 5% in the next two years [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. real estate market is facing challenges, with a significant slowdown in home price growth in April, closely related to high mortgage rates [1] - The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates a year-over-year increase of only 2.7% in home prices, the lowest since summer 2023, down from 3.4% in March [1] - Monthly home prices fell by 0.31% in April, marking the largest single-month decline since December 2022, exceeding market expectations of a slight decrease of 0.02% [1] Group 2 - High mortgage rates are a primary factor contributing to the slowdown in home price growth, making it difficult for potential buyers to afford homes [1] - The National Association of Realtors has reported the weakest performance for the real estate market since 2009, indicating a broader trend of market fatigue [1] - Despite a slight rebound in May, overall performance remains weak, with high mortgage costs continuing to suppress housing demand [1] Group 3 - Nicholas Goldke from S&P Dow Jones indicates that the real estate market is undergoing a profound transformation, with the era of rapid price increases ending [2] - Local factors are increasingly influencing home price trends, with significant disparities observed among major cities [2] - For instance, New York saw a year-over-year price increase of 7.9%, while Tampa and Dallas experienced declines of 2.2% and 0.2%, respectively [2] Group 4 - The fluctuation of mortgage rates is identified as a key factor affecting home price trends, with Federal Reserve monetary policy changes expected to have a lasting impact on the real estate market [2] - Historical data suggests a six-month lag between home price growth and the Federal Reserve's bank reserve levels, indicating potential continued pressure on home prices in the coming months [2] - The current decline in home prices is associated with the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, contrasting with past experiences where rate cuts led to accelerated price increases [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that high mortgage rates are limiting buyers' purchasing power, leading to a slowdown in U.S. home price growth, with a year-over-year increase of only 2.7% in April, the smallest since summer 2023, and a month-over-month decline of 0.31%, the largest since December 2022 [1][3][4] - The National Association of Realtors reported that April home sales were the worst for the same month since 2009, indicating a continued weak housing market in May despite a slight increase in sales [3][4] - The real estate market is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from rapidly rising prices to a more selective market where local factors are more significant than national trends, affecting previously hot markets the most [4][6] Group 2 - Tampa has seen the largest decline in home prices nationally, exemplifying the current downward trend, with mortgage rate fluctuations being a key factor influencing price movements [6] - The relationship between home price growth and the Federal Reserve's reserve levels suggests that prices may remain under pressure in the coming months before potentially accelerating again, as seen in past instances of rate cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The housing market in 70 major cities shows a stagnant trend in prices, with a recent 10 basis point reduction in the five-year LPR mortgage rate from 3.6% to 3.5%, which may lower the cost of home buying but has not significantly increased buyer confidence [1][4][5]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, there are mixed results with Shanghai seeing a 0.5% increase and Guangzhou a 0.2% decrease, indicating a potential stabilization in housing prices [5][10]. - The overall trend in major cities shows both increases and decreases in housing prices, but the rate of decline is narrowing while the rate of increase is expanding, suggesting a possible stabilization [5][9]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment and Economic Factors - A significant portion of surveyed users expressed uncertainty about purchasing homes, with many stating that changes in mortgage rates do not affect their decisions, indicating a saturated market and declining demand for first-time buyers [4][9]. - The disposable income growth rate for urban residents has decreased from 8.9% in 2019 to 4.5% in 2024, with 28% of households having a mortgage-to-income ratio exceeding 50%, contributing to cautious buyer sentiment [4][5]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - Predictions suggest that first-tier cities may see stable or rising prices due to strong economic fundamentals and population attraction, while second-tier cities will experience significant price differentiation based on economic strength and population trends [10][11]. - Third and fourth-tier cities are expected to continue adjusting downward in prices, although the reduction in mortgage rates may mitigate the extent of these declines [10][11].

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a downturn, with April existing home sales declining by 0.5% month-over-month, significantly below the expected 2% increase [1] - The annualized sales total reached only 4 million units, marking the worst April performance since the 2009 financial crisis [1] Group 1: Market Performance - April existing home sales fell 3.1% year-over-year, with total inventory increasing by 21% to 1.45 million units, the highest April inventory since 2020 [5] - Despite an increase in listings, sales did not improve, leading to a downward revision of the annual sales forecast by NAR [5] Group 2: Interest Rates and Buyer Sentiment - The primary reason for the sluggish market is rising mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching 6.92%, the highest in nearly three months [5] - Consumer sentiment regarding home buying is at a historical low, with many Americans feeling it is not a good time to purchase a home [5] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The median price of existing homes in April was $414,000, a 1.8% increase year-over-year, but the smallest increase since mid-2023 [6] - The market shows regional variations, with the Midwest seeing a slight increase in sales, while the West and Northeast continue to decline [6] Group 4: Buyer Demographics - First-time homebuyers accounted for 34% of transactions, the highest level since July 2020, while cash transactions made up 25% of sales [6] - Investment and vacation buyers represented 15% of the market, remaining stable from the previous month [6]