证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 03 年 月 日 台积电（TSM.N） 台积电 2025Q3 业绩超预期。2025Q3 台积电收入 331 亿美元，同比增加 40.8%，高于先前指引的 318-330 亿美元收入上限。按新台币收入为 9899 亿新台币，同比增加 30.3%。本季度，公司毛利率达 59.5%，较指引上限 高 2.0%，主要原因系成本改善与产能利用率提升。归母净利润达 151 亿 美元，同比增长 50.3%。 先 进制程收 入占比稳 步提升 。 从产品结构来看，2025Q3 台积电 3nm/5nm/7nm 产品收入占比分别为 23%/37%/14%，7nm 及以下先进制 程占晶圆总收入比重已达 74%。其中，3nm/5nm 占比同比增加 3/5 个百 分点，7nm 同比下降 3 个百分点。 业绩表现超预期，上调全年资本支出 需求角度：AI 需求较 3 个月前更加强劲。下游场景方面，2025Q3 高性能 计 算 HPC/ 智 能 手 机 /IoT/ 汽 车 / 数 字 消 费 电 子 分 别 占 比 57%/30%/5%/5%/1%。其中，高性能计算同比增加 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is "Buy" [7][11] Core Insights - TSMC is experiencing strong demand for advanced processes, with a resilient gross margin. The company is currently in the early stages of the AI demand cycle [3][11] - The Q3 revenue in USD increased by 40.8% year-on-year to $33.1 billion, driven primarily by strong demand for advanced processes [11] - TSMC's Q4 guidance exceeds expectations, with projected revenue of $32.2 to $33.4 billion and a gross margin of 59% to 61% [11] - The company is optimistic about the AI growth prospects, noting that AI demand is stronger than three months ago [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million NTD): - 2023: 2,161,736 - 2024: 2,894,308 - 2025E: 3,797,927 - 2026E: 4,883,180 - 2027E: 6,154,275 - Gross profit and margin: - 2023: 1,175,111 (54%) - 2024: 1,624,354 (56%) - 2025E: 2,261,172 (60%) - 2026E: 2,969,389 (61%) - 2027E: 3,766,416 (61%) [5][11] - GAAP net profit (in million NTD): - 2023: 837,768 - 2024: 1,172,432 - 2025E: 1,681,698 - 2026E: 2,193,663 - 2027E: 2,751,997 [5][11] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted revenue forecasts for TSMC for FY2025E-FY2027E are 37,979/48,832/61,543 million NTD, with GAAP net profit forecasts of 16,817/21,937/27,520 million NTD [11] - The target price for TSMC's stock is set at $382 for FY2026, based on a PE ratio of 28x [11]