Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, based on strong AI demand and gradual capacity release [3][5]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, surpassing the previous guidance of $31.8-$33 billion [1]. - The company's gross margin for the quarter was 59.5%, 2% higher than the upper guidance limit, attributed to cost improvements and increased capacity utilization [1]. - TSMC's net profit for the quarter was $15.1 billion, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year growth [1]. - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) has steadily increased, with 74% of total wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [1]. Demand Perspective - AI demand has strengthened compared to three months ago, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 57% of revenue in Q3 2025, followed by smartphones at 30% [2]. - Despite geopolitical impacts on shipments to mainland China, TSMC remains confident in achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate over the next few years [2]. Supply Perspective - TSMC is continuing its capacity expansion plans, with multiple 2nm fabs being prepared in Taiwan and accelerated expansion in Arizona, USA, to meet strong AI demand [2]. - The company is also acquiring additional land to support its expansion plans, with ongoing construction of a second fab in Japan and progress on a special process fab in Dresden, Germany [2]. Financial Guidance - For Q4 2025, TSMC projects revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, with a gross margin range of 59.0%-61.0% [3]. - The company has raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $40-$42 billion, up from the previous range of $38-$42 billion [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at NT$3.72 trillion, NT$4.50 trillion, and NT$5.51 trillion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 21%, and 22% respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - TSMC's projected net profit for 2025 is NT$1.65 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [4]. - The company's earnings per ADS are expected to be $10.37 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 28x for 2026 [4]. - Key financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 29.6% in 2025, with a projected P/B ratio of 8.5 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is "Buy" [7][11] Core Insights - TSMC is experiencing strong demand for advanced processes, with a resilient gross margin. The company is currently in the early stages of the AI demand cycle [3][11] - The Q3 revenue in USD increased by 40.8% year-on-year to $33.1 billion, driven primarily by strong demand for advanced processes [11] - TSMC's Q4 guidance exceeds expectations, with projected revenue of $32.2 to $33.4 billion and a gross margin of 59% to 61% [11] - The company is optimistic about the AI growth prospects, noting that AI demand is stronger than three months ago [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million NTD): - 2023: 2,161,736 - 2024: 2,894,308 - 2025E: 3,797,927 - 2026E: 4,883,180 - 2027E: 6,154,275 - Gross profit and margin: - 2023: 1,175,111 (54%) - 2024: 1,624,354 (56%) - 2025E: 2,261,172 (60%) - 2026E: 2,969,389 (61%) - 2027E: 3,766,416 (61%) [5][11] - GAAP net profit (in million NTD): - 2023: 837,768 - 2024: 1,172,432 - 2025E: 1,681,698 - 2026E: 2,193,663 - 2027E: 2,751,997 [5][11] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted revenue forecasts for TSMC for FY2025E-FY2027E are 37,979/48,832/61,543 million NTD, with GAAP net profit forecasts of 16,817/21,937/27,520 million NTD [11] - The target price for TSMC's stock is set at $382 for FY2026, based on a PE ratio of 28x [11]