Core Viewpoint - The supply warning for lithium battery copper foil is driven by multiple factors including limited capacity expansion, tightening copper resources, and an upgrade in demand structure [2] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium battery copper foil industry has seen limited capacity expansion over the past one to two years, with many companies operating at a loss and showing low enthusiasm for expansion [3] - Major battery manufacturers are accelerating the signing of long-term supply agreements with copper foil manufacturers to mitigate uncertainties related to material supply and price fluctuations [4] - Notable agreements include CATL with Jiayuan Technology and Zhongxin Innovation with Nord, locking in a total supply of 373,000 tons and 626,000 tons respectively for the years 2026 to 2028 [5] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Conditions - A significant price increase for lithium battery copper foil began in December 2025, with 4.5μm ultra-thin copper foil prices rising by 2,000 CNY/ton in one day, reaching 123,000 CNY/ton [7] - The processing fees for 6μm lithium battery copper foil ranged between 17,000 to 21,000 CNY/ton in December, indicating a structural supply tightness due to high production difficulty and slow yield ramp-up [7] - The shipment volume of lithium battery copper foil in China is projected to reach approximately 940,000 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 36%, with expectations of 1.15 to 1.2 million tons in 2026 [7] Group 3: Resource Constraints and Competitive Landscape - The overall copper price has remained high since 2025, with major copper mining regions facing challenges such as declining ore grades and project delays, leading to a continued tight supply of copper concentrate [8] - The rapid development of the AI industry has further increased demand for copper resources, particularly for high-end electronic circuit copper foil, which has a strong "absorption effect" on raw materials and capacity [8] - Several copper foil companies are increasing their focus on electronic copper foil, with some capacity being flexibly switched between lithium battery and electronic applications, further constraining the available supply for lithium battery copper foil [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic partnership between Jia Yuan Technology and CATL, focusing on the supply of copper foil products for battery applications, including solid-state batteries [2][3] - The collaboration is expected to significantly boost Jia Yuan Technology's revenue, with projections indicating a potential annual income of nearly 30 billion yuan by 2028 [3] Group 1: Partnership Details - Jia Yuan Technology signed a cooperation framework agreement with CATL on November 4, 2023, to become a preferred supplier of copper foil products [2] - The agreement outlines a long-term partnership for the supply, research, and production of battery negative electrode collector materials, with a minimum estimated production capacity of 626,000 tons from 2026 to 2028 [2] - The projected demand from CATL corresponds to approximately 66 billion yuan in revenue based on current market prices for copper foil [2] Group 2: Financial Projections - Jia Yuan Technology's revenue from CATL is expected to account for about 69% in 2023 and 66% in 2024, potentially increasing to 80% by 2028 [3] - If the production capacity reaches 26.5 million tons as per the agreement, Jia Yuan Technology's annual revenue could approach 30 billion yuan by 2028, compared to 5.6 billion yuan in 2024 [3] Group 3: Product Development - Jia Yuan Technology specializes in the mass production of ultra-thin copper foil (4.5μm), with a yield rate exceeding 90%, suitable for 4680 large cylindrical batteries [3] - The company is also focusing on composite collector materials with porous/alloy structures, which have shown compatibility with solid-state battery technologies [3] Group 4: Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jia Yuan Technology reported a revenue of 6.54 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.71%, with a net profit turnaround [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic investment of 500 million yuan by Jia Yuan Technology in En Da Tong marks a significant move into the rapidly growing optical module sector, reflecting the transformation anxiety of traditional manufacturing and the capital's pursuit of hard technology under the AI infrastructure wave [1][5]. Group 1: Optical Module Sector - The global optical module market has grown from 77.5 billion yuan in 2020 to an estimated 126.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1%, projected to exceed 295.4 billion yuan by 2029 [2]. - En Da Tong, established in 2017, has quickly entered the market with high-speed optical modules and active/passive devices, achieving revenues of 1.477 billion yuan and a net profit of 97.94 million yuan in 2024, with 2025 H1 revenues nearing 1.316 billion yuan and net profits reaching 121 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Jia Yuan Technology's Transformation - Jia Yuan Technology, a leader in lithium battery copper foil, has faced challenges such as industry overcapacity and intensified price wars, leading to a significant loss in net profit in 2024 [3]. - The investment in En Da Tong is seen as a critical strategy for Jia Yuan Technology to tap into the growth potential of the optical module sector, leveraging synergies in customer base, product offerings, and supply chain integration [3]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance financial performance, with En Da Tong's original shareholders committing to a minimum net profit of 143 million yuan in 2025, providing Jia Yuan Technology with a safeguard for its investment [3]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The case of Jia Yuan Technology illustrates a new paradigm for traditional manufacturing transformation, emphasizing the importance of strategic equity investments to enter high-growth sectors while maintaining core business operations [5]. - This approach allows companies to mitigate the risks associated with direct transformation and share in industry benefits through financial investments, highlighting the shift from product-centric competition to ecosystem-based competition in the AI era [5].