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国泰海通|策略:“反内卷”政策加码,科技主题轮动加速
报告导读: 主题交易热度有所回暖,电子布与反内卷主题走强,业绩预增与 PCB 主题维 持强势,关注科技与供需格局改善方向。推荐:限产稳价 / 低空经济 /AI 新基建 / 海洋经 济。 主题三: AI 新基建。 海外云计算龙头资本开支预期上修,国内智算中心投资持续推进。微软 2025 第三 财季营收 701 亿美元,净利润为 258.2 亿美元,同比增长 18% 。同时微软预计第四财季营收规模超预 期, Azure 云业务增长率达到 34%-35% 。国内需求方面,我国智能算力规模保持高速增长, 2026 年 智能算力规模有望达 2024 年的两倍。 推荐: 1 、受益海外云厂商资本开支预期上修的光模块、光器件 龙头; 2 、受益国内算力需求曲线提升的 AIDC 和国产算力产业链。 主题四:海洋经济。 中央财经委员会第六次会议指出,推进中国式现代化必须推动海洋经济高质量发展, 强调要提高海洋科技自主创新能力,要做强做优做大海洋产业等内容。我国海洋生产总值超十万亿元,占 国内生产总值比重达 7.8% 。海洋船舶工程、海工装备、海洋电力和海洋旅游增速领先。同时,我国在深 海探测装备领域基本实现国产化,但在海洋资源 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0630|策略、海外策略
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after breaking through key points, the stock market still has room for growth, with a focus on growth sectors rather than indices [1][2] - The reduction in the risk-free interest rate and the shift in expectations for the RMB from depreciation to stability or slight appreciation are significant drivers for the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2] - The article highlights the importance of macro policies that prioritize investor returns and capital market reforms, which are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1][2] Group 2 - Economic policies and innovation support are expected to improve risk appetite and drive growth performance, with new business opportunities emerging in China [2] - The article notes that the financial sector's recent strong performance is influenced by multiple factors, including the ongoing development of stablecoin concepts and favorable domestic policies [6] - Historical analysis shows that financial stock rallies are often driven by liquidity, fundamentals, or policy events, with the sustainability of these drivers determining future market trends [8]