来源：格隆汇 还在争论"AI需求是否见顶"？台积电25Q3财报直接用一组"王炸级数据"终结讨论： 单季营收狂揽331亿美元，不仅比市场预期的315亿多赚16亿，同比更是暴涨41%；净利润151亿美元， 同比激增39%，相当于每天净赚1.68亿美元，比不少芯片企业全年利润还高。 更狠的是，它直接把2025年营收增速从原预期的30%上修到近35%，目标锁定1216亿美元（超市场预期 10亿），同时将资本支出区间收窄至400-420亿美元——这意味着台积电要用"真金白银"砸向AI先进制 程，而眼下3纳米、5纳米订单已排到2026年，先进制程（7纳米及以下）单季贡献74%晶圆营收，垄断 地位丝毫未动。 但疑问也随之而来：一边是AI订单"抢到手软"，一边是亚利桑那、日德工厂扩产的短期成本压力，台积 电这场"左手爆单、右手扩产"的平衡术能玩多久？作为全球唯一能造7纳米以下先进制程的企业，这份 财报里藏的信号，又将如何改写全球半导体格局？ 01 Q3业绩拆解： "先进制程+AI"的结构性胜利 （来源：格隆汇APP） 台积电25Q3财报核心数据全线上修，每一项都在印证"AI驱动先进制程红利"的逻辑，而非单纯的短期 超预期。 ...

Core Insights - TSMC's June sales reached NT$263.71 billion, a 26.9% increase year-over-year, despite a 17.7% month-over-month decline [2][3] - For Q2, TSMC's sales were NT$933.796 billion (approximately US$31.95 billion), significantly exceeding company guidance and market expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 38.6% [2][3] - Cumulative sales for the first half of the year totaled NT$1,773.046 billion, reflecting a 40.0% increase compared to the same period last year [2][3] Financial Performance - TSMC's Q2 revenue surpassed analyst expectations, with LSEG SmartEstimate predicting NT$927.831 billion [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 17% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 revenue, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm processes, despite currency pressures [4] - TSMC's CEO reaffirmed a 20% sales growth target in USD for 2025, alongside a commitment to invest US$100 billion to expand manufacturing capabilities in the U.S., Japan, and Germany [4] Market Dynamics - The strong demand for AI chips from major companies like NVIDIA and increasing outsourcing orders from Intel are key drivers for TSMC's sales performance [5] - Despite challenges in the mobile and consumer sectors, TSMC's annual sales growth target of 25% remains achievable [5] - Concerns about tariffs and their impact on the global economy and electronics industry persist, affecting investor sentiment [5]