台积电 20250718 摘要 台积电预计未来五年通过技术壁垒实现量价齐升，维持 25%左右的收入 增速，2025 年资本开支指引为 350 亿至 420 亿美元，同比增长 34%。 台积电面临新台币升值和制造业向美国迁移导致毛利率下降的风险，公 司预计每年毛利率下降 1%左右。光刻机订单偏弱可能影响资本投资， 但终端需求仍然强劲。 台积电被认为是 AI 算力产业链中最核心的标的，AI 相关收入预计在 2024 年至 2025 年翻倍，并在 2025 年至 2029 年保持 45%左右的增 长。HPC（高性能计算）占其收入 60%。 尽管 ASML 业绩一般且 EUV 设备投资偏弱，但台积电终端需求依然强劲， 设备开支存在上修空间。公司确认其 5 纳米产能非常紧张，目前最火的 一些芯片均采用 4 纳米和 5 纳米技术生产。 台积电产品单价环比上升 3%至 8,088 美元，远高于中芯国际。二季度 毛利率为 58.6%，通过产能利用率提升及 ASP 上涨，毛利率仅环比下 降 0.2 个百分点。 Q&A 台积电在 2025 年第二季度的业绩表现如何？其未来几年的增长预期是什么？ 台积电在 2025 年第二季度的收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, with an upgrade in the revenue growth forecast for the year 2025 to approximately 30% [3][26]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q2 2025 revenue reached $30.07 billion, exceeding guidance, driven by strong demand for 3/5nm technologies, with a year-on-year growth of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.8% [1][20]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 58.6%, close to the upper limit of guidance, reflecting effective cost management despite some dilution from overseas operations and currency fluctuations [1][20]. - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 38% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% [3][22]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for Q2 2025 was $9.63 billion, with a full-year guidance of $38 billion to $42 billion, indicating a commitment to expanding capacity in response to strong demand, particularly in AI and HPC sectors [4][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and a net profit of $12.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61% [1][20]. - The operating profit margin was 49.6%, exceeding guidance, with a return on equity (ROE) of 34.7% [1][20]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by technology node: 3nm (24%), 5nm (36%), and 7nm (14%), with 74% of revenue coming from advanced processes [2][20]. - Revenue by platform: HPC (60%), smartphones (27%), IoT (5%), automotive (5%), and data communication equipment (1%) [2][20]. Guidance and Outlook - The guidance for Q3 2025 indicates strong revenue growth, with an expected gross margin of 55.5% to 57.5% [3][22]. - TSMC anticipates a significant increase in AI-related revenue, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 45% from AI acceleration chips from 2024 to 2028 [4][22]. Global Expansion Plans - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in Arizona, including multiple fabs and a major R&D center [28][29]. - The company is also expanding its operations in Japan and Europe, focusing on specialized technologies and automotive applications [29][30]. Technology Development - The N2 and A16 technologies are expected to meet the growing demand for high-efficiency computing, with N2 projected to enter mass production in the second half of 2025 [31][32]. - TSMC's advanced packaging strategy is aligned with its advanced process development, ensuring a comprehensive approach to meet customer needs [45].

五角大楼的工程师们盯着报警的红灯直冒冷汗，F-35战机的生产线突然瘫痪了——中国稀土断供的第三 周，洛克希德·马丁仓库里最后一批钕铁硼磁体耗尽。 更让硅谷恐惧的是，中芯国际的7纳米芯片良率突破90%，长江存储的固态硬盘抢下全球23%市场。 特朗普在椭圆办公室摔碎了咖啡杯，这是他2018年发动全球关税战后首次尝到反噬的滋味。 这场号 称"史上最大规模贸易战"的剧本彻底跑偏了。 美国商务部公布的最新关税清单像张破洞的渔网，欧盟 日本早钻过网眼签了豁免协议，墨西哥直接躺平接受汽车配额，连越南都靠让步换来纺织品免税——全 球主要经济体名单上，只剩下中国还稳稳钉在加税榜单首位。 当初挥舞关税大棒的特朗普大概没想到，自己亲手点燃的战火，五年后烧掉的竟是美国制造业的厂房。 中国工厂流水线上的机械臂可没被关税吓停。 东莞的玩具商把芭比娃娃生产线搬到了柬埔寨，浙江五 金厂把螺丝钉装船运往沙特，广汽的电动车正在泰国港口卸货。 美国海关数据显示，2024年一季度中国对美出口占比跌至12.5%，同期中国对东盟出口额却突破2200亿 美元，同比暴涨22%。 当美国零售巨头们为圣诞季库存发疯时，供应链专家发现个残酷事实：沃尔玛货架上95 ...

6月1日那个深夜，美国贸易代表办公室悄悄发了个通告，对华关税豁免又延长了。 搞笑的是，就在两天前，特朗普还在推特上跟中国叫板呢。连他的财长都承认了，谈判压根就卡住了，得两国老大亲自出马。 这家伙怎么变脸比翻书还快？美国这是咋了？ 作者 辉 说变脸就变脸，特朗普这48小时的操作把全世界都看懵了。 前两天还在推特上咆哮，说中国工厂要倒闭了，自己"仁慈地"拯救了危机。那副得意洋洋的样子，就像个刚刚赢了弹珠游戏的小孩子。哪知道转眼间，美国 贸易代表办公室就偷偷摸摸延长了对华关税豁免。这操作简直比川剧变脸还要神速，连观众都来不及反应。 更让人哭笑不得的是，连他自己的财政部长贝森特都忍不住吐槽，中美贸易谈判"有点停滞"，得麻烦两国元首亲自下场才能解决。这话听起来就像是在 说："老板，我们这边实在搞不定了，得您亲自出马。"一个堂堂财政部长说出这种话，多少有些无奈的味道。 有美国议员都忍不住吐槽："没人知道他五天后的规定是啥样。"这话说得太精准了。政策朝令夕改，从125%改成145%，又悄悄延长豁免，这哪里是什么战 略布局，简直就是在瞎折腾。就像一个赌徒，一会儿all in，一会儿又想着保本离场，完全没有章法可言。 这种戏剧 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant shift in trade dynamics between the US and China, illustrated by American LPG carriers rerouting to Southeast Asia instead of China due to escalating tariff conflicts [1][3] - Despite a temporary agreement reached in mid-May to gradually dismantle tariffs, Chinese companies have already established new partnerships with suppliers from Canada and the Middle East, indicating a long-term shift away from US goods [3][12] - The retention of a 20% "fentanyl tariff" by the Trump administration has exacerbated distrust among American businesses, leading to concerns about the stability of future trade relations [7][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the trade agreement signed in Geneva in May 2025, which aims to eliminate 95% of tariffs on goods, but also notes the hidden challenges posed by the retained tariffs [8][9] - The article points out that American companies are facing significant losses due to reduced exports to China, with soybean exports dropping by 16.3% [16] - Chinese companies are actively restructuring their global supply chains, reducing reliance on US suppliers, as seen in the shift towards sourcing from countries like Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East [12][17] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the resilience of Chinese companies in the lithium battery sector, with exports to the US reaching a record high of $15.315 billion, despite US sanctions [19] - It highlights the challenges faced by American companies in finding alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, as many industries remain heavily dependent on China's production capabilities [22][24] - The article concludes with the notion that the ongoing trade war may lead to significant economic repercussions for the US, with potential losses in various sectors, including agriculture and semiconductors [24][28]

Key Achievements of "Made in China 2025" - China has maintained its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 14 consecutive years since surpassing the US in 2010, with a manufacturing value added accounting for 34% of the global total by 2024, which is twice that of the US and three times that of the EU [3] - The export structure has fundamentally transformed, with high-end products significantly increasing their share; automobile exports surged from under 1 million units in 2017 to 6 million units in 2024, making China the world's largest exporter [4] - Significant technological innovations have emerged in key sectors, with China capturing 55% of global shipbuilding orders and achieving a 90% localization rate for LNG carriers [5] - The resilience of the industrial chain has been notably enhanced, demonstrated by the rapid increase in mask production capacity from 20 million to 1 billion units per day during the pandemic [6] - Foreign investment has deeply integrated into the Chinese market, with an average annual foreign investment exceeding $120 billion over the past decade, doubling from the previous ten years [7] Future Economic Outlook - The core of future economic growth will be driven by disruptive innovations in five key areas: energy, materials, digital intelligence, biomedicine, and high-end equipment [9] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on three strategic directions for industrial upgrading, including a "1+10" industrial chain cluster model, green and intelligent transformation of traditional industries, and upgrading of productive service industries [10][11][12] - Strategies to address international changes include deepening open cooperation, strengthening independent innovation, and optimizing the business environment [13][14] Long-term Economic Projections - China's economy is expected to enter a "stable recovery" phase, with GDP growth projected at around 5% by 2025 and industrial output share of the global total expected to rise to 45% by 2030 [15] - The transformation driven by domestic demand will aim to increase the consumption rate to over 70% through income distribution reforms [15] - Institutional innovations will be crucial in addressing deep-seated reform challenges, with examples from local practices providing valuable insights for national implementation [16] Transition from "Manufacturing Power" to "Manufacturing Strong Power" - The speech summarizes the achievements of "Made in China 2025" and outlines future directions, indicating that China has moved from being a "big but not strong" manufacturing country to a "big and relatively strong" one [17] - The focus will be on new quality productivity through technological innovation, open cooperation, and institutional reform, aiming for China to become a global manufacturing powerhouse by 2040 [17]