公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 日媒日前惊爆台积电兴建中的熊本二厂兴建工程已实质上停止、原因可能在于台积电考虑让熊本二厂 转为生产4纳米(nm)。而台积电熊本工厂营运子公司JASM社长堀田佑一最新表示，熊本二厂兴建工 程「持续进行」。 日经新闻报导，关于兴建中的第2工厂(熊本二厂)，堀田佑一19日表示，「兴建工程正持续进行。将 和合作伙伴就兴建作业细节、进度进行协商」。堀田佑一19日在东京国际展示场举行的「SEMICON Japan 2025」上发表演说。 关于2024年12月开始量产的熊本一厂，堀田佑一指出，「生产周期时间(Cycle time)以不输给台湾姐 妹工厂的水准进行生产」。堀田佑一指出，截至2025年4月为止、熊本工厂员工数为2,400人，待熊 本二厂投产后、预估将增加至3,400人以上水准。 根据MoneyDJ XQ全球赢家系统报价，台积电ADR 19日上涨1.50%、收288.95美元。 日经新闻日前报导，熊本二厂的兴建工程已实质上停止，而工程会突然停止、预估是因为台积电考虑 将熊本二厂生产的产品从原先规划的6纳米变更为更先进的4纳米。熊本二厂原先计划生产车用半导 体，不过因 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is considering advancing its chip production technology at its second factory in Japan to meet the demand for AI-related products, which may lead to construction delays and design changes [3][4]. Group 1: Factory Development - TSMC's second factory in Kumamoto, Japan, which began construction in late October, is now contemplating a shift to 4nm process technology, moving away from the initially planned 6nm and 7nm chips [3]. - The construction of the Kumamoto factory has reportedly been paused, with heavy machinery cleared from the site by early December [3]. - TSMC has informed suppliers that it will not add equipment to its existing factory in Kumamoto until at least 2026, as demand for 6nm and 7nm chips has decreased [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Technology Shift - The demand for 6nm and 7nm chips has declined, impacting TSMC's production capacity utilization at its main facility in Taichung, Taiwan [4]. - TSMC has a history of adjusting its construction plans based on market demand, as seen with its facility in Kaohsiung, which shifted from mature processes to advanced 2nm technology [4]. - TSMC is also considering introducing advanced chip packaging technology in Japan, which is crucial for AI chip manufacturing [5]. Group 3: Partnerships and Support - TSMC's projects in Japan are supported by companies such as Sony Semiconductor Solutions, Denso, and Toyota [5].

Core Insights - TSMC reported record revenue for October 2025, with sales reaching NT$367.47 billion, marking an 11.0% increase from September and a 16.9% increase year-over-year, setting a new monthly and annual record [1] - Cumulative sales from January to October reached NT$3.13 trillion, a 33.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, also a record high [2] - The company's performance is driven by advancements in process technology and increased orders from key clients, alongside long-term benefits from global AI computing demand [3] Revenue Trends - Despite the strong performance, TSMC's monthly sales growth is showing signs of slowing down, with a year-over-year growth of 31.4% in September [4] - TSMC's stock has risen over 46% this year, although recent global market concerns have put pressure on tech stocks [5] Future Outlook - TSMC's CEO emphasized that both revenue and profit are expected to reach record highs this year and in the future, with a focus on the continuation of 3nm expansion and advanced packaging orders [6] - For Q4, TSMC projects sales between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 59% to 61% [11] Market Position - TSMC's market share in the pure foundry market has increased from 63% in Q1 2024 to 71% in Q2 2025, driven by enhanced 3nm capacity and high utilization of AI GPUs [9] - Advanced technologies (7nm and above) account for 74% of TSMC's total wafer revenue, highlighting the company's strength in advanced processes [9] Sector Contributions - The recovery in consumer electronics and automotive chip markets is also supporting TSMC's revenue growth, with significant orders from Apple and Qualcomm [13] - In the automotive sector, TSMC has seen nearly a 20% year-over-year increase in orders for specialized 28nm/16nm chips for autonomous driving and AI applications [14] Expansion Plans - TSMC is actively expanding its overseas presence, with the construction of a second wafer fab in Japan and plans to accelerate capacity expansion at its Arizona facility [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's third-quarter financial results demonstrate strong performance, with a significant year-over-year revenue increase, and the company is expected to maintain its solid future outlook despite potential short-term growth slowdowns [1][5][8]. Financial Performance - TSMC reported third-quarter sales of approximately $33 billion, a substantial year-over-year increase of 41%, exceeding analyst expectations by $1.5 billion [5]. - Advanced technology nodes contributed significantly to revenue, with 3nm chips accounting for 23%, 5nm for 37%, and 7nm for 14%, totaling 74% of wafer revenue [5]. - The gross margin slightly improved to 59.5%, with an operating margin of around 50.6% and a net profit margin of 45.7%, showcasing strong profitability for a capital-intensive manufacturing company [5][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) reached 37.8%, indicating effective management of investor funds [6]. Market Position and Strategy - TSMC is a critical player in the AI sector, with major tech companies relying on its manufacturing capabilities for advanced chips, particularly for AI and data center applications [10][11]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to $40-$42 billion by 2025 to strengthen its market position amid rising AI demand [10]. - TSMC's advanced process technologies, including the upcoming 2nm node, are expected to further enhance its competitive edge [12]. Pricing Power and Future Outlook - TSMC is anticipated to raise prices for its advanced processes by 5%-10%, with potential increases for the new 2nm process reaching up to 50%, which could significantly boost profitability [13][14]. - The company is projected to achieve an average sales growth rate of about 30% over the next five years, driven by ongoing demand in the AI sector [18]. Valuation - Based on current assumptions, TSMC's fair stock price is estimated to be around $359 per share, indicating substantial upside potential [19]. Conclusion - The ongoing AI race is expected to benefit TSMC significantly, although there are concerns about market prudence in capital investments [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights TSMC's impressive Q3 2025 financial results, showcasing a significant revenue increase driven by AI demand and advanced process technology [1][28] - TSMC's Q3 revenue reached $33.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $31.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [2][28] - The net profit for Q3 was $15.1 billion, marking a 39% increase year-on-year, which translates to a daily profit of approximately $168 million [1][2] Group 2 - TSMC raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast from 30% to nearly 35%, targeting $121.6 billion, which is $1 billion above market expectations [1][28] - The company narrowed its capital expenditure range to $40-42 billion, indicating a strong commitment to investing in AI advanced processes [1][28] Group 3 - TSMC's gross margin reached 59.5%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased shipments of 3nm and 5nm processes [4][28] - The average selling price (ASP) of wafers increased to $7,040, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, indicating a higher value contribution from advanced processes [9][28] Group 4 - Advanced processes (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of wafer revenue, with 5nm contributing 37% and 3nm 23% [6][28] - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment, primarily driven by AI servers, represented 57% of revenue, demonstrating resilience in demand [8][28] Group 5 - TSMC's CEO emphasized that AI demand is in its early explosive phase, supported by three main drivers: cloud, enterprise, and sovereign AI [11][28] - The company is proactively engaging with over 500 end customers to anticipate AI application needs, ensuring a robust demand forecast [13][28] Group 6 - TSMC's N2 process technology is set to begin mass production by the end of Q4 2025, with significant orders already secured from major clients [14][28] - The company is expanding its global production capacity across four major sites, including Arizona, Japan, Germany, and Taiwan, to meet rising AI demand [19][20][21][22][28] Group 7 - TSMC's capital expenditure strategy is closely linked to revenue growth, with a projected return of $1.5 to $2 for every $1 spent on CapEx over the next 3-5 years [23][28] - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge through its "Foundry 2.0" strategy, which integrates front-end processing, back-end packaging, and software services [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q3 2025 financial report showcases significant growth driven by AI demand, with revenue reaching $33.1 billion, exceeding market expectations and reflecting a 41% year-over-year increase, while net profit surged by 39% [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - TSMC's quarterly revenue of $33.1 billion surpassed market expectations of $31.5 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.1% and a year-over-year increase of 41%, translating to an average daily revenue of nearly $1.1 million [2] - Adjusted EPS reached $2.92, a 39% increase year-over-year, exceeding expectations by $0.33, with a net profit margin of 45.7%, positioning TSMC among the few tech giants maintaining a margin above 40% [2] Gross Margin - Gross margin improved to 59.5%, up 1.7 percentage points year-over-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the expected 58.9% [3][4] - Key drivers include a surge in shipments of 3nm and 5nm processes, a reduction in inventory turnover days to 74, and high capacity utilization rates [3] Advanced Process and AI Demand - Advanced processes (7nm and below) contributed 74% of wafer revenue, with 5nm accounting for 37% and 3nm for 23%, indicating a strong market position [6] - AI demand is expanding beyond cloud services to include enterprise and sovereign AI, with TSMC's CEO noting a stronger demand than three months prior, supported by three main drivers: cloud, enterprise, and sovereign AI [10] Technology Roadmap - TSMC's N2 family (2nm) is set to begin mass production by the end of 2025, with expectations of significant contributions to revenue by 2026 [14][15] - The N2 process is anticipated to have superior profitability compared to N3, with a 20% increase in logic density and a 30% reduction in power consumption [15] Global Expansion and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is advancing its global production capabilities, including a major facility in Arizona and expansions in Japan and Germany, to meet AI demand [18][19][20] - The capital expenditure for 2025 has been narrowed to $40-42 billion, with a clear allocation strategy focusing on advanced processes and special processes [21] Non-AI Market and Competition - The smartphone market is recovering, with a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase, while automotive electronics are also seeing growth, indicating a healthy inventory situation [23] - TSMC's "Foundry 2.0" strategy aims to build a competitive moat by offering comprehensive solutions, including front-end processing and back-end packaging [24] Future Indicators - Key indicators to monitor for TSMC's growth include Q4 revenue performance, the ramp-up speed of the N2 process, and the management of overseas factory gross margin dilution [26]

Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 2025 financial report showcases a significant revenue of $33.1 billion, exceeding market expectations by $1.6 billion and reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41% [2][3] - The company has revised its 2025 revenue growth forecast from 30% to nearly 35%, targeting $121.6 billion, which is $1 billion above market expectations [2][3] - TSMC's net profit reached $15.1 billion, marking a 39% year-on-year increase, equating to a daily net profit of $168 million [2][3] Revenue and Profitability - TSMC's quarterly revenue of $33.1 billion surpassed market expectations of $31.5 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% and a year-on-year increase of 41% [4] - The adjusted EPS reached $2.92, a 39% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations by $0.33, with a net profit margin of 45.7% [4] Gross Margin - The gross margin reached 59.5%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the expected 58.9% [6] - Key drivers include a surge in 3nm and 5nm process shipments and effective internal cost control [6] Process and Platform Structure - Advanced processes contributed 74% of wafer revenue, with 5nm accounting for 37% and 3nm for 23% [8] - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment, primarily driven by AI servers, accounted for 57% of revenue, indicating strong demand resilience [10] Implicit Highlights - The average selling price (ASP) of wafers reached $7,040, a 15% year-on-year increase, reflecting the value added by advanced processes [11] - Free cash flow was NT$139.38 billion (approximately $4.56 billion), a 12% year-on-year increase, providing ample resources for future expansion and R&D [11] AI Demand - TSMC's CEO stated that AI demand is stronger than three months ago, indicating an early stage of a long-term trend supported by three main drivers: cloud, enterprise, and sovereign AI [13] - The number of AI tokens is growing exponentially, necessitating stronger computing power, with TSMC's AI revenue growth forecast of nearly 35% for 2025 being lower than token growth due to technological iterations [14] Technology Roadmap - TSMC's N2 family of technologies is set to drive growth over the next decade, with N2 production starting in Q4 2025 and expected to contribute 5% of wafer revenue by 2026 [17][18] - N2P and A16 technologies are also in the pipeline, targeting high-end AI training and HPC applications, respectively [19][20] Global Expansion - TSMC is advancing its global production capabilities, with significant projects in Arizona, Japan, Germany, and Taiwan to support AI demand [21][22][24][26] - The company aims to achieve over 1 million 12-inch equivalent wafers in Arizona by 2027, leveraging government subsidies to reduce costs [22] Capital Expenditure - TSMC has narrowed its 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) forecast to $40-42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced processes [26] - The company expects a return of $1.5-$2 for every $1 spent on CapEx over the next 3-5 years, indicating a strong growth outlook [27] Non-AI Market and Competition - The smartphone market is recovering, with a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase, while automotive electronics are also gaining momentum [29] - TSMC's "Foundry 2.0" strategy aims to build a competitive moat by offering comprehensive solutions, including advanced packaging services [31] Future Signals - To validate TSMC's $65 billion revenue target for 2030, key indicators to monitor include Q4 2025 revenue performance, N2 process ramp-up speed, and overseas factory margin dilution [33] Conclusion - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exemplifies the benefits of AI-driven advanced processes, solidifying its position as a cornerstone of the global semiconductor industry [35]

Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue of NT$989.92 billion (approximately US$33.1 billion), a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a net profit of NT$452.3 billion, marking a record high with a 39.1% year-on-year growth [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the increasing demand for AI chips, with advanced technology (7nm and above) accounting for 74% of total wafer revenue [1][2] - TSMC's optimistic outlook for Q4 includes projected sales of US$32.2 billion to US$33.4 billion and a gross margin of 59% to 61% [1] Company Performance - TSMC's Q3 revenue in USD was US$33.1 billion, surpassing the market expectation of US$31.6 billion [1] - The company reported that 3nm chip shipments accounted for 23% of total wafer revenue, while 5nm and 7nm chips contributed 37% and 14%, respectively [1] - TSMC's market capitalization is approximately US$1.22 trillion, nearly three times that of its competitor Samsung Electronics [3] Industry Trends - The demand for AI applications is driving the need for high-performance computing chips, leading analysts to raise their earnings and revenue forecasts for TSMC [2][3] - TSMC is preparing for the construction of multiple 2nm wafer fabs in Taiwan, with mass production expected to begin in late Q4 [3] - The semiconductor industry is entering a super cycle, as evidenced by the strong performance of both TSMC and Samsung Electronics, which reported an 8.7% year-on-year sales increase and a 31.8% rise in operating profit [3]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q3 financial results exceeded market expectations, boosting optimism regarding the increasing demand for AI chips [2][3]. Financial Performance - TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$989.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a net profit of NT$452.3 billion, marking a record high with a year-on-year growth of 39.1% [2]. - In USD terms, TSMC's Q3 revenue was $33.1 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $31.6 billion [2]. - For Q4, TSMC projects sales between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, exceeding market estimates of $31.23 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 59% to 61% [3]. AI Demand and Market Outlook - TSMC's management expressed strong confidence in the AI market, noting that demand is even stronger than anticipated three months ago [4]. - Analysts have raised their earnings and revenue forecasts for TSMC due to the increasing demand for high-performance computing chips driven by AI investments [5]. Expansion Plans - TSMC is preparing to build multiple 2nm wafer fabs in Taiwan, with mass production expected to begin in late Q4 [5]. - The company is also expanding its second wafer fab in Japan and accelerating capacity expansion at its Arizona facility in the U.S. [5]. Industry Trends - TSMC's performance is seen as a bellwether for AI chip demand, indicating a strong trend in the semiconductor manufacturing industry [5]. - Samsung Electronics also reported better-than-expected results, with an 8.7% year-on-year sales increase and a 31.8% rise in operating profit, suggesting that the semiconductor market has entered a super cycle [5].

Semiconductor Industry & Technology - SMIC is testing 28nm DUV lithography equipment manufactured by Shanghai startup YuLiang Sheng [1] - YuLiang Sheng is attempting to produce 7nm chips using "multi-patterning" with the 28nm DUV equipment [1] - It is uncertain whether the equipment can be used for mass production of chips [1] - YuLiang Sheng is striving to achieve complete localization of all components, despite some parts originating from foreign countries [1]