泸州老窖 20251227 摘要 2024 年泸州老窖销售额上半年停滞，11 月和 12 月虽有恢复但未达去 年同期。高档酒受影响最大，其次是中档酒，低档酒相对较好。高度 1,573 受影响较大，低度 1,573 略好，商务用酒如 60 版也受影响。 泸州老窖销售集中在华北、西南（四川）和华东，占比约 80%。华北和 华东表现相对较好，西南传统高度酒区域受影响较大。公司重点维护国 窖 1,573 等高端品牌市场地位，维持其中国高档白酒前三地位，暂不调 整 1,573 价格。 公司资源逐渐向中低档产品倾斜，以应对市场压力。国窖 1,573、泸州 老窖系列（60 版、老字号特曲、窖龄等）在低度化趋势下发展良好。公 司在部分市场尝试推广低档光瓶酒。 公司目前没有调整国窖 1,573 价格的计划，品牌地位取决于价格高度和 市场份额。未来是否调整将根据外部环境变化决定，消费环境改善或持 续疲软都可能促使公司重新评估量价策略。 低度国窖是公司重点推广对象，符合低度化趋势。预计 2026 年竞争将 加剧，公司将关注发展动态并进行战略调整以保持竞争优势。低度和高 度产品消费者群体重合，区别在于区域口感习惯，运作模式一致。 Q ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Industry Overview - The company expresses a cautious outlook for sales in the upcoming quarters due to macroeconomic and industry cycle impacts, with no significant improvement in sales feedback as of November, indicating increasing pressure on cash flow across the industry [2][3][4] Company Performance - The sales of Guojiao 1573 have declined approximately 10% in the first three quarters, with high-end liquor being particularly affected, showing a drop of about 10-15% in the third quarter [2][7] - The company has no plans to adjust pricing or sales policies, focusing instead on maintaining brand strength [2][7] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a deep cultivation strategy in its base markets (Southwest, North China, East China) to solidify its foundation and improve efficiency, while weaker markets like Henan and Hunan are underperforming due to resource allocation and weak consumer bases [2][9][10] - The company aims to increase market share in Southwest and North China, targeting the creation of two billion-level markets in Hebei and Sichuan, which is a gradual process [2][11] Product Performance - The sales of Laojiao Tequ in 2025 are expected to be stable, with a focus on the 100-300 RMB price range to expand the consumer base, projected to reach approximately 3 billion RMB [2][14][17] - The low-alcohol trend is recognized as a long-term shift, albeit slow, influenced by consumer preferences and habits, with the main consumer demographic still being individuals born between the 1950s and 1970s [5][19] Distribution and Inventory - Distributor inventory levels remain stable, but the turnover rate is slowing, leading to increased cash flow pressure across the industry [4] - The company continues to adopt a controlled distribution profit-sharing model, optimizing it based on market conditions to ensure reasonable profits for distributors [6] Future Outlook - The company maintains a cautious growth outlook for 2026, with the planning for the upcoming year still pending board approval after the Spring Festival [18] - The company acknowledges the need for a long-term approach to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly as younger generations seek different drinking experiences [19][20] Online and Offline Strategy - The company is exploring online channels through partnerships with third-party platforms and developing its own instant retail platform, while still prioritizing offline marketing for high-end liquor [5][20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's current challenges, strategies, and future outlook within the liquor industry.

Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing challenges due to the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with expected sales not meeting last year's levels. The overall consumption demand is recovering slowly, and the industry is still under pressure from the effects of alcohol bans [2][3][4]. Company Strategies and Performance - Luzhou Laojiao is adopting a cautious inventory strategy, maintaining a controlled stock level to avoid short-term price cuts while preserving brand influence and channel profit margins [2][5][6]. - The company is focusing on the Guojiao 1573 product line, shifting resources towards mid-range and mass-market products, and expanding its market coverage to 1.1 million effective terminals [2][7]. - The proportion of low-alcohol products is increasing, with Guojiao 1573's high and low alcohol ratio approaching 50-50. The company is promoting low-alcohol products to meet diverse consumer needs without setting specific revenue targets [2][8]. Market Dynamics - The company is cautious about the market performance during the upcoming holidays, expecting sales to be lower than last year due to ongoing challenges and the lingering effects of alcohol bans [3][4]. - Mid-range products like Laozhao Special and Special 60 Edition have shown stable performance with single-digit growth in the first half of the year, particularly in banquet markets [2][13]. Competitive Landscape - Luzhou Laojiao is maintaining a stable pricing strategy in response to the price drop of competitors like Wuliangye, aiming to enhance brand influence and potentially surpass Wuliangye's pricing in the future [2][10]. - The company is closely monitoring market dynamics and consumer behavior to adapt its strategies accordingly, especially in response to competitive pricing pressures [10][12]. Future Outlook - The company has initiated revenue planning for 2025 but has not yet set a specific revenue target of 15.5 billion due to the industry's deep adjustment phase [2][11]. - The company is optimistic about the long-term potential of low-alcohol products, although it does not expect immediate large-scale shifts in consumer preferences [9][12]. Regional Market Insights - The East China market has seen a slowdown in growth due to the broader economic environment, while the Southwest and North China markets remain relatively stable [14][15]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in rural and county-level markets, which have been previously overlooked [19]. Channel Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging new channels like e-commerce and instant retail to enhance consumer convenience, although traditional offline channels remain the primary focus [20]. - The company is committed to strict cost control and efficiency in its expenditure, maintaining a stable expense ratio despite fluctuations in sales expenses [21]. International Expansion - The company is actively promoting its brand overseas, although current international revenue contribution is minimal, primarily targeting the Chinese diaspora [22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategies of Luzhou Laojiao in the current market environment.

Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Industry Overview - The high-end liquor market is under pressure due to the impact of the alcohol ban, with slow recovery in business banquet scenarios affecting high-end products like Guojiao 1573 significantly. However, mid-to-low-end products such as Luzhou Laojiao Tequ and Erqu are performing relatively stable in rural markets [2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: Since June, the liquor industry has faced challenges due to macroeconomic conditions and weak consumer demand, particularly in high-end business banquet consumption, leading to a sales decline of approximately 30-40% in June and July. A slight improvement was noted from late July to early August, continuing into September [4][5]. - **Product Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao is optimistic about the low-alcohol liquor market, adjusting its product structure based on market demand without strictly differentiating between high and low alcohol content. The low-alcohol Guojiao is performing well in regions like North China and Jiangsu-Zhejiang [2][7][12]. - **Youth Market Engagement**: The company is actively targeting younger consumers by opening "liquor cafes," developing low-alcohol and craft beer products, and sponsoring sports events to create a youthful brand image [9][19]. - **Pricing Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao is committed to maintaining stable pricing for Guojiao 1573 to avoid price wars and protect brand image, preparing for future price increases [17][18]. - **Channel Expansion**: The company is increasing investments in emerging channels such as instant retail, online sales, and membership supermarkets, collaborating with partners like Pang Donglai for flexible customization [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sales Distribution**: The revenue share between high and low alcohol products for Guojiao 1573 is nearly equal, with a long-term trend towards lower alcohol content expected, although the exact changes in proportion remain to be seen [11]. - **Market Potential**: Luzhou Laojiao sees significant growth potential in low-alcohol products, particularly in regions where market share is currently underperforming, such as East China and Jiangsu-Zhejiang [13][16]. - **Competition Management**: The company is adopting a flexible channel strategy, including direct sales and enhanced management of distributors to ensure market stability amid competition [3][23]. - **Impact of Alcohol Ban**: The company acknowledges that while the most severe effects of the alcohol ban have passed, the overall consumption demand has not yet improved significantly, posing ongoing challenges for the industry [24]. - **Sales Forecast**: The company is cautious about predicting sales performance for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, noting that consumer behavior may be affected by travel plans [5][25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Luzhou Laojiao as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the current market landscape.