2026 年食品饮料行业的展望如何？ 展望 2026 年，我们认为经过几年的深度调整后，行业整体的调整周期将逐步 进入尾声，这是行业能否回升的关键转折点。从库存角度来看，大众品自 2024 年底至今已基本完成去库存过程，而白酒从 2025 年二季度开始进入加 静水深流，大象无形 - 食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251222 摘要 2026 年食品饮料行业预计将结束深度调整周期，大众品已基本完成去 库存，白酒预计在 2026 年二季度达到新的平衡点，CPI 企稳回升将缓 解价格通缩压力，具备创新或供应链优化能力的企业将脱颖而出。 白酒板块预计明年二季度左右达到新的平衡，呈现前低后高特征，目前 处于筑底过程，中期配置价值值得重视。大众品受益于效率革命和新旧 动能切换，新兴渠道发展和成本红利将持续。 2025 年食品饮料细分板块表现分化，黄酒、软饮料、乳制品和肉制品 涨幅居前，白酒受高端价格下行挤压影响显著，三季度报表下滑，四季 度延续调整。 CPI 和 PPI 剪刀差震荡，涨价预期较弱，未来 CPI 企稳回升将缓解价格 下行压力。白酒价格均值回到较高水平，未来下行空间有限，企业需维 持量价平衡，预计 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market shows signs of stabilization in 2025, with a sales growth of 1.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average price [9][12][10] - Lower-tier cities (third to fifth tier) contributed approximately 80% of the market growth, benefiting from urbanization, brand penetration strategies, and the expansion of new retail channels [9][20] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, where price sensitivity is balanced with quality considerations, leading to a stabilization in average prices after a significant decline in previous years [10][43] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The FMCG market in China experienced a mild growth in 2025, with a notable performance in the first quarter, which saw a 2.7% increase year-on-year [12] - Sales in lower-tier cities are a key growth driver, with a volume increase of 4-6% offsetting price declines [20][39] Category Dynamics - Packaged food and household care categories led the growth with increases of 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, while the beverage category faced a decline of 1.1% [24][25] - The personal care category showed signs of recovery with a 1.1% growth after several years of decline [34] Price Dynamics - The "consumption upgrade" trend continued into 2025, with average prices decreasing by 2.4%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to 2024 [10][43] - Promotional activities have decreased, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards a more balanced consideration of price and quality [13][43] Emerging Channel Dynamics - New retail formats such as warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are rapidly expanding, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [54][55] - E-commerce channels also showed strong growth, with an increase from 2% to 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 [54][56] Implications for Brands - Brands must adapt to the evolving retail landscape, leveraging data and technology to create demand and navigate the fragmented market [53] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer dynamics to seize opportunities in the new growth cycle [53]

Core Insights - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is expected to stabilize in 2025 after a flat performance in 2024, with a year-on-year sales growth of 1.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average prices, which is an improvement from a 3.4% decline in 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The growth in the FMCG market is primarily coming from third to fifth-tier cities, where sales volume increased by 4% to 6%, offsetting a 2% to 3% decline in average prices [1] - Consumers are becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, focusing on quality-price ratios rather than just low prices, indicating a structural adjustment in the market [1] Group 2: Category Performance - Among the four main FMCG categories, packaged food saw the fastest growth with a 3.4% increase in sales, driven by stable demand for core staple foods and snacks [2] - The household care category grew by 3.3%, supported by stable cleaning habits and innovative products, while personal care grew by 1.1% [2] - The beverage category experienced a decline of 1.1% due to intensified competition and the impact of ready-to-drink beverages [2] Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Emerging channels are becoming the core growth driver in the FMCG market, with offline channels like warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores expanding rapidly, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [2] - Instant retail channels have reversed last year's decline, showing a 7.9% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, attributed to the popularity of delivery services and increased product variety [2] Group 4: Brand and Retailer Strategies - Retailers are accelerating the development of private labels, which have seen an average annual growth of 44% over the past two years, now accounting for 2% of total FMCG sales in the first three quarters of this year [3] - Brands need to redefine their relationships with retailers and platforms, integrating channel insights into product and market strategies to seize opportunities in the new growth phase of the FMCG market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate of HKD 6.4 for China Wangwang (00151) and keeps its earnings expectations largely unchanged, believing the company is undervalued primarily due to a projected dividend yield of 4.3% in 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the half-year period ending September, Wangwang reported a revenue increase of 2.1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.8%, attributed to a decline in gross margin and increased operating expenses [1] - Revenue exceeded expectations, but net profit was in line with forecasts [1] Investment and Growth Strategy - The company is increasing investments in new channels, which has temporarily raised the sales expense ratio; however, this is viewed positively as essential for long-term growth [1] - Revenue from traditional wholesale and modern retail channels decreased by approximately 15-20%, indicating a shift in customer traffic from traditional products and channels [1] Emerging Channels and Market Expansion - Despite the decline in traditional channels, overall revenue growth remains positive, supported by new products in emerging channels [1] - Wangwang is optimistic about expanding sales in niche markets like dairy products through discount stores, which accounted for 15% of total sales during the period [1] - The overseas market also showed positive growth, which is viewed favorably [1]

Core Insights - The financial report of China Wangwang (00151.HK) for the half-year ending September 30, 2025, shows a revenue of 11.108 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 7.8% to 1.717 billion yuan, marking the lowest net profit margin of 15.46% in nearly four years, which fell short of market expectations [2][4][9] Revenue Composition - The dairy and beverage segment, primarily driven by the flagship product Wangzai Milk, constitutes a significant portion of the company's revenue, accounting for nearly half of total revenue [3] - The revenue from the dairy and beverage segment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to 5.941 billion yuan, attributed to a sluggish ambient dairy market and the rapid growth of affordable ready-to-drink tea beverages [4][9] Emerging Sales Channels - The company is actively expanding into emerging sales channels such as e-commerce, instant retail, and snack wholesale, with the snack wholesale channel growing rapidly and now representing 15% of total revenue [4] - Despite the growth in new channels, the gross margin for the dairy and beverage segment fell from 50.3% to 47.8%, indicating significant pressure on profitability [4][9] Market Reactions - Following the financial report, several financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and UBS, downgraded their target prices for China Wangwang, with Bank of America lowering its target price to 4.7 HKD and assigning an "underperform" rating [8] - Analysts pointed out that the decline in milk beverage sales, reduced gross margins, and increased selling and administrative expenses are key reasons for the company's underperformance [9] Cost Pressures - The company's total operating expenses rose by 10.6% year-on-year to 3.202 billion yuan, with the distribution costs increasing significantly by 13.2% to 1.555 billion yuan, contributing to the pressure on profits [9] - UBS forecasts a 9% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2026, while Citi has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 down by 8%-13% due to rising raw material costs and increased advertising expenditures [9]

Core Viewpoint - China Wangwang (00151.HK) reported a revenue of RMB 11.108 billion for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while the profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 7.8% to RMB 1.717 billion, with basic earnings per share at RMB 0.1455 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year was RMB 11.1078 billion, showing a growth of 2.1% compared to the same period last year, with sales increasing nearly in double digits [1] - The profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 7.8% year-on-year to RMB 1.717 billion [1] - The basic earnings per share for the period was RMB 0.1455 [1] Group 2: Product and Market Performance - The ice cream segment within the leisure food category achieved double-digit growth [1] - Emerging channels such as e-commerce and OEM continued to perform well, with revenue from these channels growing in double digits [1] - The company launched new products targeting the snack wholesale channel, which were well-received by consumers, demonstrating effective strategic response to rapid market changes [1] Group 3: International and New Product Growth - Overseas revenue for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year saw low single-digit growth, with positive momentum in regions like Japan and India [1] - Revenue from new products launched in the past five years accounted for a mid-double-digit percentage of total revenue, serving as a significant growth engine for the company [1] Group 4: Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross profit margin for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 46.2% [2] - While the costs of some raw materials like white sugar and gelatin decreased, the rising costs of imported whole milk powder and palm oil offset these benefits, leading to a decline in gross margin [2] - Overall operating expenses increased by 10.6%, primarily due to promotional expenses for new channels and products following internal organizational restructuring [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 40.4% to 1.24 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 43.3% to 170 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5] - The growth momentum is driven by new product channels and strong performance in existing markets, particularly in the poultry product segment [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 220 million, 270 million, and 320 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 41.2%, 22.8%, and 16.2% respectively [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 470 million yuan, a 32.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, up 44.8% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue from meat products reached 450 million yuan, with poultry products contributing 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.7% and 36.1% respectively [5] - The gross margin decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 26.95% due to lower margins from newly developed channels, but the net margin improved by 1.15 percentage points to 13.78% due to reduced expense ratios [7] Market Channel Analysis - Offline channel revenue grew by 33.6% to 450 million yuan, with membership supermarkets and snack wholesale showing strong trends [6] - Online channel revenue increased by 17.7% to 30 million yuan, indicating ongoing expansion efforts [6] - The Southeast region saw a significant revenue increase of 59.6%, primarily driven by the rapid growth of new channels [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation Metrics - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.52, 0.64, and 0.74 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.7, 18.5, and 15.9 [4][8] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.643 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.9% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Jinzhai Food Group Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, with the third quarter achieving a record high revenue of 685 million yuan, up 6.55% year-on-year, attributed to new product launches and optimized channel strategies [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 2.05% increase year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter, the revenue reached 685 million yuan, representing a 6.55% year-on-year growth and setting a new quarterly record [1] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - Jinzhai Food invested over 38 million yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of approximately 11% year-on-year [2] - The company has established multiple health research and development systems, leveraging various scientific platforms to enhance its core competitiveness [2] - New products such as "Jingmen Baodu" and "Konjac Dried Fish" were launched to enrich the product line and stimulate growth in the konjac category [1][2] Group 3: Market Strategy and Channel Optimization - The company is actively optimizing its channel layout, focusing on online, distribution, and modern channels while expanding into emerging channels like bulk snacks and instant retail [2] - Revenue from the bulk snack channel grew by over 50% year-on-year in the first three quarters [2] - The company collaborates with over 100 snack specialty systems, covering more than 40,000 retail outlets [2] Group 4: Share Buyback and Dividends - Jinzhai Food completed its third share buyback on September 26, with a total amount of approximately 99.99 million yuan, representing 1.79% of the company's total share capital [3] - Cumulatively, the company has spent around 200 million yuan on share buybacks and distributed 638 million yuan in dividends, which is about four times the net amount raised during the IPO [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nissin Foods (01475) experienced a significant stock price increase of 44%, reaching a historical high of 9.6 HKD, driven by strategic expansion plans in China [1] Company Developments - In September, Nissin Foods successfully bid 30.68 million HKD for a land parcel in Zhuhai, intended for the construction of new production facilities to enhance its operations in China [1] - The company is actively adapting to new consumer trends while solidifying its existing business foundation and exploring emerging domestic channels and overseas markets [1] Future Outlook - According to Guoyuan International, Nissin Foods is expected to return to a growth trajectory by 2025, suggesting that investors should maintain attention on the company [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Emerging Channels and Consumer Trends** The live streaming phenomenon at the Nanjing Sugar and Wine Fair highlights the penetration of new channels like instant retail in the baijiu industry. The popularity of light bottle liquor priced under 100 yuan indicates robust consumer spending and a trend towards consumption upgrades [1][3]. 2. **Performance During Mid-Autumn and National Day** The baijiu industry performed slightly better than expected during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Notably, the sales of Yanghe Jinshuiyuan exceeded company expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in sales volume and banquet sessions. However, the overall banquet sales growth was modest due to a decline in the number of bottles opened per banquet [4][5]. 3. **Consensus on Industry Bottoming** There is an increasing consensus that the baijiu industry has reached its bottom, but expectations for recovery remain cautious. Demand is currently affected by alcohol bans and economic downturns, while supply is entering a destocking phase. Moutai's prices have stabilized, and distributor inventories are low [6]. 4. **Price Trends and Distributor Conditions** Moutai's post-holiday prices exceeded expectations, with stable original box prices around 1,780 yuan. Distributors' inventory levels are healthy, with a turnover rate of about one month. In contrast, Wuliangye faces price inversion and subsidy pressures, leading to a challenging situation for both Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. 5. **Projected Performance for Q3 2025** For Q3 2025, Moutai is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth, while Wuliangye may see double-digit revenue growth but with larger profit margins. Luzhou Laojiao is also projected to achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, while Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to decline significantly [9][10]. 6. **Future Outlook and Recommendations** The baijiu industry is currently at a fundamental bottom, with a potential adjustment period from Q2 to Q1 of the following year. The valuation appears attractive. Recommended stocks include leading brands like Moutai, Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jiansu Yuer, as well as dividend-paying companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe. Attention is also drawn to flexible stocks like Zhenjiu Lidu [10][11]. Industry: Beverage Key Points and Arguments 1. **Steady Growth in Beverage Sector** The beverage industry is experiencing steady growth in Q3 2025, with standout performances from tea drinks, traditional health waters, electrolyte waters, and coconut water. Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are seeing rapid revenue growth, with profit margins expected to improve [2][12]. 2. **Differentiated Performance of Major Brands** In Q3 2025, Master Kong benefited from price increases, while Uni-President faced challenges due to delivery subsidies. Master Kong's instant noodle business returned to low single-digit growth, while its beverage segment experienced a mid-single-digit decline [13][14]. 3. **Emerging Categories and Competitive Landscape** New categories such as tea drinks and health-oriented beverages are showing significant potential for growth. The competitive landscape is intensifying due to declining raw material prices and increased subsidies from delivery platforms [12][16]. 4. **Long-term Growth Potential** Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are recommended for their strong brand power and growth potential, with expectations for continued performance above industry averages in the coming years [15]. Industry: Dairy Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dairy Sector Challenges** The dairy sector is facing a decline in supply and weak downstream demand. The number of dairy cows has decreased, while milk prices have risen slightly. Companies like Yili are expected to see modest revenue growth, while Mengniu may experience a decline due to previous high bases [18]. 2. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook** The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with potential improvements in competition dynamics as raw milk prices balance out. Companies like New Dairy, Mengniu, and Yili are seen as having certain investment value [18]. Industry: Snack and Frozen Food Key Points and Arguments 1. **Snack Industry Performance** The snack industry is developing steadily, with franchisees favoring larger stores. Despite a slight decline in average transaction prices, new product categories are expected to drive growth. Companies like Wancheng are projected to achieve significant revenue growth [19][20]. 2. **Frozen Food Sector Trends** The frozen food sector is experiencing flat performance, with slight revenue growth but ongoing profit pressures. Companies like Anjijia and Qianwei Central Kitchen are seeing modest revenue increases, while others like Baobi are benefiting from lower pork costs [22][23]. 3. **Future Growth Expectations** The snack sector is anticipated to perform better in 2026, with cost pressures easing and new channel opportunities emerging. Companies are encouraged to adapt to market changes and explore new distribution channels [21]. Industry: Beer Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beer Industry Performance** The beer industry is facing moderate demand, with on-premise channels underperforming. However, off-premise channels are showing resilience, with moderate sales growth. Companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer are expected to see slight revenue increases [24][25]. 2. **Cost and Profitability Trends** The cost of beer production is expected to stabilize, with key variables focusing on ASP (average selling price) increases and cost-saving measures. Companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment [25][26].