Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Industry Overview - The high-end liquor market is under pressure due to the impact of the alcohol ban, with slow recovery in business banquet scenarios affecting high-end products like Guojiao 1573 significantly. However, mid-to-low-end products such as Luzhou Laojiao Tequ and Erqu are performing relatively stable in rural markets [2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: Since June, the liquor industry has faced challenges due to macroeconomic conditions and weak consumer demand, particularly in high-end business banquet consumption, leading to a sales decline of approximately 30-40% in June and July. A slight improvement was noted from late July to early August, continuing into September [4][5]. - **Product Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao is optimistic about the low-alcohol liquor market, adjusting its product structure based on market demand without strictly differentiating between high and low alcohol content. The low-alcohol Guojiao is performing well in regions like North China and Jiangsu-Zhejiang [2][7][12]. - **Youth Market Engagement**: The company is actively targeting younger consumers by opening "liquor cafes," developing low-alcohol and craft beer products, and sponsoring sports events to create a youthful brand image [9][19]. - **Pricing Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao is committed to maintaining stable pricing for Guojiao 1573 to avoid price wars and protect brand image, preparing for future price increases [17][18]. - **Channel Expansion**: The company is increasing investments in emerging channels such as instant retail, online sales, and membership supermarkets, collaborating with partners like Pang Donglai for flexible customization [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sales Distribution**: The revenue share between high and low alcohol products for Guojiao 1573 is nearly equal, with a long-term trend towards lower alcohol content expected, although the exact changes in proportion remain to be seen [11]. - **Market Potential**: Luzhou Laojiao sees significant growth potential in low-alcohol products, particularly in regions where market share is currently underperforming, such as East China and Jiangsu-Zhejiang [13][16]. - **Competition Management**: The company is adopting a flexible channel strategy, including direct sales and enhanced management of distributors to ensure market stability amid competition [3][23]. - **Impact of Alcohol Ban**: The company acknowledges that while the most severe effects of the alcohol ban have passed, the overall consumption demand has not yet improved significantly, posing ongoing challenges for the industry [24]. - **Sales Forecast**: The company is cautious about predicting sales performance for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, noting that consumer behavior may be affected by travel plans [5][25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Luzhou Laojiao as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the current market landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The beauty e-commerce industry is facing challenges as traditional platforms reach their growth limits, while new platforms like short videos and live streaming are becoming significant traffic sources. The performance of beauty third-party operators (TPs) varies widely, with only a few companies managing to thrive amidst the downturn [1][12]. Market Capitalization - Ruoyuchen leads the market with a market capitalization of 13.178 billion RMB, significantly surpassing the second-ranked Yiwang Yichuang by nearly 6 billion RMB [1]. - Yiwang Yichuang and Qingmu Technology are in the second tier with market capitalizations exceeding 5 billion RMB [1]. - Liren Lizhuang and Kaichun Co. have market capitalizations between 2 billion and 5 billion RMB, placing them in the third tier [1]. - Baozun E-commerce and Youquhui are in the fourth tier with market capitalizations below 2 billion RMB [1]. Financial Performance - Only Ruoyuchen among the seven beauty TPs achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit, with revenue increasing by 67.55% to 1.319 billion RMB and net profit rising by 85.60% to 72.3 million RMB [8][12]. - Other companies, including Liren Lizhuang and Baozun E-commerce, reported significant declines in net profit, with Liren Lizhuang experiencing a four-digit percentage drop [8][12]. - Youquhui reported a 14.2% increase in beauty product sales, reaching 5.8 million RMB, but still faced overall revenue and profit declines [9]. Channel Strategy - Beauty TPs are increasingly focusing on emerging platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Kuaishou, as traditional platforms like Taobao and Tmall show diminishing growth contributions [18][23]. - Ruoyuchen's sales from Douyin reached 490 million RMB, making it the largest sales channel, surpassing Tmall and Tmall International combined [27][28]. - Qingmu Technology reported a 144.58% increase in revenue from Douyin, indicating a successful channel transition [27]. Brand Development - Ruoyuchen and Liren Lizhuang are the only two TPs actively expanding their own brand portfolios, with Ruoyuchen's self-owned brand revenue growing by 242.42% to 603 million RMB [36][38]. - Liren Lizhuang's self-owned brand sales increased by over 80%, focusing on two main brands for future growth [38]. - Other TPs are exploring brand incubation and management to drive growth, with Qingmu Technology's brand management revenue increasing by 86.46% [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 12.41 billion, 13.37 billion, and 14.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -7.86%, 7.72%, and 8.93% [4] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, a decline of 7.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33% year-on-year, while the average price per ton of liquor decreased by 4.66% [2] - Emerging channel revenue grew significantly, with traditional and emerging channel revenues at 15.465 billion and 932 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -3.99% and +27.55% [2] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 50.72% year-on-year, reaching 3.529 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 87.09%, down 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 46.57%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The second quarter of 2025 reported a gross profit margin of 87.86% and a net profit margin of 43.23%, with tax and additional charges accounting for 15.39% of total revenue, an increase of 3.72 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 63.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 88.320 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]

Summary of Yili Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Dairy Products Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Yili's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.78% year-on-year to 7.016 billion yuan [2][3] - **Revenue**: Total revenue reached 61.93 billion yuan, a growth of 3.37% year-on-year [3] - **Gross Margin**: Gross margin improved by 1.14 percentage points to 36.05% [8] - **Sales Expense Ratio**: Decreased by 1.11 percentage points to 18.3% [8] Business Segment Performance Liquid Milk - **Revenue**: Liquid milk revenue was 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining the top market share [4] - **Growth**: Low-temperature white milk revenue grew over 20% [5] - **Market Strategy**: Focus on optimizing sub-brand strategies and technological innovation to enhance market share [4] Solid Dairy Products - **Revenue**: Revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% to 16.578 billion yuan [6] - **Market Position**: Yili's infant formula retail sales and market share ranked first nationally, with adult powder market share at 26.1% [6] Ice Cream - **Revenue**: Ice cream revenue increased by 12.4% to 8.229 billion yuan, maintaining the leading market position [7] - **International Expansion**: Continued growth in overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand [7] Market Outlook and Strategy - **Cautious Optimism**: The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for full-year revenue and profit, expecting continued improvement in profit margins [8] - **Raw Material Prices**: Current raw milk prices are stable at around 3 yuan per kilogram, positively impacting gross margins [9] - **Consumer Demand**: The company is focused on enhancing product innovation and meeting consumer health demands [5][11] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: The company faced challenges from smaller brands in 2024 due to imbalances in raw milk supply and demand [10] - **Response Strategy**: Yili is actively expanding into emerging channels and launching high-quality products to stabilize market share [10] Future Growth Drivers - **Consumer Trends**: Anticipated growth in high-end and functional dairy products driven by consumer demand for health and quality [13] - **Channel Diversification**: Expansion into new retail channels, including e-commerce and membership stores, to capture diverse consumer segments [17][18] International Expansion - **Focus Markets**: Yili is concentrating on Southeast Asia for its cold drink business and has made significant strides in the infant formula market in Hong Kong [21] - **Long-term Strategy**: Plans to explore high-growth potential markets like Africa for future expansion [21] Product Innovation - **New Product Development**: Introduction of high-end functional milk powders and partnerships with health brands to enhance product offerings [27] - **Adult Nutrition**: Focus on developing products tailored for the aging population, leveraging the silver economy [24][25] Conclusion Yili Co., Ltd. is positioned for sustainable growth through strategic diversification, innovation, and a focus on consumer health trends, while navigating challenges in the competitive landscape and raw material pricing dynamics. The company aims to maintain its market leadership and enhance shareholder returns through prudent financial management and operational efficiency [30].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.526 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 397 million, with a year-on-year increase of 33.76% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was CNY 411 million, up 31.17% year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin was 7.40%, an increase of over 1.72 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 62.53%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points from the beginning of the period [1] Channel Development - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel showed strong growth in the first half of 2025, with the company focusing on core channels for breakthroughs and adjustments [1] - Emerging channels, such as membership stores and snack wholesale channels, were prioritized for development, contributing positively to overall direct sales growth [1] Gross Margin Improvement - The overall gross margin improved significantly in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by product structure optimization [2] - The impact of milk prices on gross margin growth was relatively small when combined with selling prices and promotions [2] - Sales revenue from low-temperature products grew by over 10% year-on-year, with internal structural optimization being a key driver for gross margin improvement [2] Subsidiary Performance - Sichuan Dairy's revenue increased compared to the same period last year due to management adjustments and the exploration of new channels [2] - The company actively promoted excellent new products to achieve positive changes in performance [2] Brand Marketing Strategy - Brand marketing expenses saw a significant increase in the first half of the year, reflecting the importance of brand building in the company's 2023-2027 strategic plan [2] - The focus is on enhancing consumer interaction through better experiences and closer engagement, aiming to resonate more with consumers [2] Regional Expansion Plans - The company reported good growth momentum in the South China region, particularly in Shenzhen, and plans to continue expanding in key cities like Shenzhen and Beijing [2] Asset Management - The company indicated that the disposal losses of biological assets are at a normal level, with a moderate increase in cattle inventory [2] - Efforts will continue to improve livestock management and optimize operational indicators in the second half of the year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its current valuation at historical lows and the potential for growth through new channel development [5]. Core Insights - The company's main business remains under pressure, but new channels are showing strong performance. In Q2 2025, revenue increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while cash collection improved by 14.7% [5]. - The company is actively capturing opportunities in new channels domestically and expanding into Southeast Asia internationally, aiming to transition from a domestic leader to an international brand [5]. - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth of 5% in 2025, with a slight decline in net profit expected in the same year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 15,126.65 million - 2025E: 15,913.24 million - 2026E: 16,915.77 million - 2027E: 17,947.63 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at 7.70% for 2024, 5.20% for 2025, 6.30% for 2026, and 6.10% for 2027 [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 1,484.83 million - 2025E: 1,421.36 million - 2026E: 1,481.49 million - 2027E: 1,567.07 million - Profit growth rates are expected to be 0.46% for 2024, -4.27% for 2025, 4.23% for 2026, and 5.78% for 2027 [2][7]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross margin is projected to decline from 23.30% in 2024 to 21.30% from 2025 onwards [2]. - The diluted EPS is expected to decrease slightly from 4.46 in 2024 to 4.26 in 2025, before recovering to 4.70 by 2027 [2][7]. - **Market Performance**: - As of August 25, 2025, the stock price was 77.06, with a market capitalization of 226 billion [3]. Business Segment Performance - In Q2 2025, the main business segments showed varied performance: - Frozen prepared foods: -1.4% - Cooked dishes: +26.1% - Frozen noodles and rice products: -10.8% - Agricultural products: -4.8% - Other businesses: -74.7% [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its presence in emerging channels, with significant growth in new retail and e-commerce, which saw a revenue increase of 35.2% in Q2 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's specialized reforms have shown results, leading to improved sales of meat products. The company reported a revenue of 28.41 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.323 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw a revenue of 14.14 billion yuan, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.186 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year. The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 96.9%, making it a stable value investment target [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the meat product segment achieved a revenue of 5.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The sales volume and average price were approximately 328,000 tons and 17.1 yuan/kg, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.6% and 0.1%. The operating profit for this segment was 1.5 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, with a profit per ton of approximately 4,569 yuan, maintaining a high level [4][5]. Business Segments - The slaughtering business reported a revenue of 6.77 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, but the operating profit dropped significantly by 61.7% to 59.89 million yuan due to fluctuating pig prices. The fresh product sales volume was 415,000 tons, up 12.2% year-on-year, but the average price fell by 10.4% year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue improving its sales volume and maintain high profit margins in the meat product segment, with anticipated cost reductions and increased market investments. The company aims to enhance its fresh product sales through new customer development and differentiated product promotion [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.24 billion yuan, 5.51 billion yuan, and 5.82 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.51 yuan, 1.59 yuan, and 1.68 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.6, 15.8, and 15.0 times [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the successful launch of new products and the expansion of emerging sales channels [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 746-798 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.9%-50.8% [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 105-112 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.9%-47.6% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company forecasts revenue of 363-415 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.7%-63.3% [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company has seen rapid growth in revenue due to the successful launch of its core product, deboned duck feet, in Q3 2024, which has become a key revenue driver [1] - The membership-based supermarket channel has emerged as a significant contributor to revenue growth, with additional product launches expected to further enhance performance [1][2] - The company is also benefiting from strong performance in snack chains and e-commerce channels, contributing to overall revenue increases [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The significant increase in profitability in Q2 2025 is attributed to a temporary adjustment in expense allocation, with a reduction in sales expenses expected [2] - Compared to Q1 2025, the profit growth in Q2 is also influenced by a decrease in the impact of financial income on profits [2] - The company is positioned to benefit from the expanding snack food industry, particularly in the spicy snack segment, which is favored by younger consumers [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high level of revenue elasticity in 2025, driven by its proactive approach to embracing online and new retail channels [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.47 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 26x, 20x, and 17x [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to continue expanding its profitability in FY24, driven by internal organizational reforms and strong momentum in emerging channels and overseas markets [1] Financial Performance - For FY24, the company's revenue decreased by 0.32% year-on-year, primarily due to the underperformance of ice cream and rice snacks [2] - Gross margin increased by 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower costs of raw materials and packaging [2] - The net profit margin improved by 1.52 percentage points to 18.41%, with net profit increasing by 8.67% year-on-year [2] - The dividend payout ratio for FY24 was 39.8%, significantly lower than the average level from FY21 to FY23 [2] Product Performance - Dairy beverages saw a revenue increase of 1.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 1.2 percentage points, showing a clear recovery in the second half of the fiscal year [2] - Rice snacks experienced a revenue decline of 1.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 1.9 percentage points, mainly due to the impact of gift packages and changes in product structure [2] - Snack food revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points, with ice cream showing a decline in the first half but achieving rapid growth in the second half [2] Organizational Changes and Market Strategy - In the second half of FY24, the company initiated internal organizational reforms, establishing product-specific divisions to enhance channel collaboration and manage domestic and international operations [3] - The company deepened cooperation with leading snack retailers, with revenue from snack retailers accounting for about 10% [3] - Emerging channels experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, with revenue contribution approaching 10% [3] - Overseas revenue grew by double digits year-on-year, with significant growth in markets such as Japan, North America, and parts of Southeast Asia [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth potential, with a focus on accelerating the pace of new product launches [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively expanding into new channels, particularly in membership-based supermarkets and e-commerce, which are expected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 966.21 million yuan - 2024A: 1,182.33 million yuan (22.37% YoY growth) - 2025E: 1,516.87 million yuan (28.30% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,761.44 million yuan (16.12% YoY growth) - 2027E: 2,025.66 million yuan (15.00% YoY growth) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2023A: 116.16 million yuan - 2024A: 157.33 million yuan (35.44% YoY growth) - 2025E: 198.51 million yuan (26.18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 233.85 million yuan (17.80% YoY growth) - 2027E: 270.52 million yuan (15.68% YoY growth) [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023A: 0.27 yuan - 2024A: 0.37 yuan - 2025E: 0.46 yuan - 2026E: 0.55 yuan - 2027E: 0.63 yuan [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 13.50 yuan - The market capitalization is 5,773.84 million yuan - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 49.71 for 2023A, decreasing to 21.34 by 2027E [5][1]