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思源电气(002028):业绩符合市场预期 看好全年业绩超目标增长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:43
网内超高压市场实现突破、网外静待新品扩大市场天花板。1)网内市场,电网投资高速增长,Q1 电网 基础建设完成额956 亿元,同比+25%,我们预计公司网内收入实现20-30%的增长;订单方面,公司成 功中标9间隔国网输变电物资招标750kV 组合电器,实现750kV 产品市场0-1 突破,看好高端产品份额 持续提升,进一步提高网内业务毛利率水平。2)网外市场,24 年公司SSC 等构网型产品开始交付并投 入使用,随着新能源装机占比的提高,构网型储能、SSC 等产品有望成为新能源并网运行的刚需,公 司卡位领先,配合变压器、高压开关以及继电保护等传统产品,进一步扩大公司网外市场天花板。 海外电网建设需求高涨、关税对公司业务无影响。海外电网建设需求保持高景气,Q1 我国变压器/高压 开关出口金额同比+40%/30%,公司24年海外收入占比提升至20%,订单占比我们预计提升至30%以 上。美国关税对我国出口产品层层加码,但由于美国内部制造业回流需求+AI 发展拉动新增负荷+老旧 电力设备亟待更新,我们认为高压电力设备在国际市场供应仍偏紧,西门子、日立能源等头部企业扩产 周期长,展望全年,我们认为公司海外收入有望维持高 ...
思源电气(002028):业绩符合市场预期,看好全年业绩超目标增长
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-27 13:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit of 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [8] - The domestic ultra-high voltage market has seen breakthroughs, while the external market is poised for expansion with new products [8] - The overseas demand for power grid construction remains high, with exports of transformers and high-voltage switches increasing by 40% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [8] - Cost control measures are ongoing, with significant increases in inventory and contract liabilities [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.73 billion yuan, 3.54 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21x, 16x, and 12x [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 12.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.25% [1] - The projected net profit for 2023A is 1.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.75% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is expected to be 2.00 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 27.04 billion yuan by 2025E [9] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to be 11.74 billion yuan by 2025E [9]