证券代码：002028.SZ 证券简称：思源电气 思源电气股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-005 | 投资者关系活 | ■特定对象调研 □媒体采访 | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 动类别 | □业绩说明会 □路演活动 | □新闻发布会 | | | □现场参观 □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 参与单位名称 | 阿尔派投资管理有限公司、安联集团、东亚联丰投资管理、中银保诚资产管 | | | | 理、贝莱德、国泰证券、哥伦比亚基金管理、瀚亚投资、方瀛研究、富兰克 | | | | 林邓普顿、言教资金管理公司、新加坡投资、高盛资库管理、恒生投资、景 | | | 及人员姓名 | 顺亚洲、基石投资、凯斯博投资管理、宏利投资、橡树资本管理、施罗德投 | | | | 资管理、安本资产、中金证券、源峰基金、华福电新、汇丰前海、国泰海通 | | | | 电新等 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 8 月 19 日 15:30-16:30 | | | | 2025 年 8 月 20 日 15:30-16:30 | | | 地点 | 腾讯会议/公司会议室 | | | 上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Siyuan Electric (002028) has shown strong performance in H1 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by increased overseas income and improved profitability metrics, meeting market expectations [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.293 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 5.270 billion yuan, reflecting a 50% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 846 million yuan, up 62% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 31.74%, slightly down by 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.82 percentage points to 15.21% [2]. Overseas Revenue Growth - The company's overseas revenue reached 2.862 billion yuan in H1 2025, a remarkable increase of 89% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 35.69%, up 1.87 percentage points [3]. - Overseas revenue now accounts for 34% of total revenue, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a growing reliance on international markets [3]. Domestic Market Performance - Domestic revenue for H1 2025 was 5.635 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 29.73%, down 1.34 percentage points [4]. - The performance of subsidiaries such as Siyuan High Voltage and Siyuan Hertz showed significant growth, with revenue increases of 10% and 31% respectively [4]. Investment and Cost Management - The company increased its sales, management, and R&D expenses by 52%, 10%, and 26% respectively in H1 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on market and sales investments [5]. - Inventory and contract liabilities rose significantly, with inventory at 4.715 billion yuan and contract liabilities at 2.562 billion yuan, up 38% and 32% year-on-year respectively, indicating a solid order backlog [5]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 2.82 billion yuan, 3.80 billion yuan, and 5.00 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 35%, and 32% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met market expectations, with significant growth in overseas revenue contributing to improved profitability [2][8] - The overseas revenue increased by 89% year-on-year, accounting for 34% of total revenue, driven by strong demand and rising market prices [8] - Domestic revenue also showed a solid growth of 21% year-on-year, although domestic gross margin experienced a slight decline due to increased competition and changes in the market [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12,460 million RMB in 2023 to 29,631 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1,559 million RMB in 2023 to 5,003 million RMB in 2027, indicating a CAGR of around 31% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 2.00 RMB in 2023 to 6.43 RMB in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 43.46 to 13.54 [1] Market and Operational Insights - The company has increased its investment in market and sales, leading to a significant rise in sales expenses by 52% year-on-year [8] - Inventory and contract liabilities have also grown substantially, indicating a strong order backlog and a solid foundation for future growth [8] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in domestic operations, with the delivery of new products anticipated to improve gross margins in the second half of 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 1H25, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding expectations, indicating robust operational momentum and market demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion yuan, up 45.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached 5.27 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.2% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 850 million yuan, marking a 61.5% increase year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The overseas revenue surged by 89.0% to 2.86 billion yuan, accounting for 33.7% of total revenue, an increase of 9.1 percentage points [2]. - Domestic revenue grew by 21.1% to 5.63 billion yuan [2]. - The GIS subsidiary's revenue increased by 9.0% to 2.40 billion yuan, while the revenue from circuit breakers and isolators rose by 31.1% to 1.14 billion yuan [2]. Order Growth and Market Trends - The company anticipates continued high growth in new orders, projecting a 25% increase in new contract orders for 2025, amounting to 26.8 billion yuan [4]. - The first three batches of bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment by the State Grid in 2025 are expected to increase by 25% year-on-year [4]. - Strong demand in both domestic and overseas markets is supported by significant investments in power grid infrastructure and renewable energy installations [2][4]. Profitability - The company's overall gross margin remained stable at 31.7%, with overseas gross margin increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 35.7%, while domestic gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 29.7% [3]. - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 15.2%, reflecting an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 2.55 billion yuan and 3.08 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 22x for 2026, with a target price increase of 19.5% to 98 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 12.6% from the current price [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.35 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.76 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million CNY, up 45.7% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 339 million CNY, reflecting a 33.6% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 33 million CNY, a 12.5% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 44.1%, an increase of 10.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin for 2024 was 38.9%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.76 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.75 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.7% [3][8]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 252 million CNY in 2024 to 491 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of about 16.2% [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.41 CNY in 2024 to 0.79 CNY in 2027 [3][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The company’s core subsidiaries, including Changgao High Voltage Switch and Changgao Electric, reported significant revenue growth, with the high voltage switch segment growing by 30% [7]. - The company successfully expanded its product offerings, including the 500kV GIS products, with new orders totaling 204 million CNY in 2024 and expected deliveries of 150 million CNY in 2025 [7]. Investment Outlook - The company has a clear growth trajectory, supported by its established market position in electrical equipment and ongoing product development [7]. - The forecast for net profit in 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 360 million CNY and 420 million CNY, respectively, reflecting the increased investment in new product development [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.458 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.06%, with net profit increasing by 31.42% to 2.049 billion yuan [8] - The company reported a strong order growth of 21.41% in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.227 billion yuan [8] - The overseas business showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by 44.7% to 3.12 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 20.2% of total revenue [8] - Domestic business revenue grew by 20.7% to 12.34 billion yuan in 2024, with an improved gross margin [8] - The company added new orders worth 21.457 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.94% [8] - The company has a strong cash position with approximately 2.7 billion yuan in net cash and a debt ratio of 46.09% [8] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12.46 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.637 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 21% [3] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.578 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 26% [3] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 36.3 in 2023 to 22.0 in 2025, indicating improving valuation [3] - The company’s ROE is expected to rise from 15.9% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2025, showcasing enhanced profitability [3] Business Performance - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings, moving from a single business model to a comprehensive product system that includes various electrical equipment [8] - The management has demonstrated strong capabilities in navigating through industry cycles and expanding overseas markets [8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global trend of increasing investments in power grid construction [8]