Omdia是一家专注于半导体市场的咨询公司，他们在2025年的半导体市场季度简报中提供了详尽的市场 分析与预测。这包括但不限于全球及中国大陆半导体市场的增长趋势、不同应用类别的市场情况（如智 能手机、个人电脑、数据中心服务器、汽车等）、主要终端应用市场的表现、关税政策对中国半导体产 业的影响等。他们每次出的报告都是经过了大量的市场调研，所以报告的内容都非常硬核。 本篇文章的内容，在获得作者授权后，我们把Omdia的2025半导体市场季度简报中的 部分内容 分享给 大家，也推荐大家可以多关注及订阅Omdia，对 Omdia内容有兴趣的朋友，可以扫文章后面的微信。 半导体市场Overview 中国市场 | | 行业平均 | 行业平均 | 行业平均 | 统计范围内总营收 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主利率 | 营业利润率 | 存货周转率 | (亿元人民币) | | | 2025Q1 | 32.68% | 9.25% | 0.53 | | 379.66 | | 2024Q1 | 34.11% | 9.23% | 0.51 | | 315.67 | | Y ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's escalating AI chip export controls are reshaping the global semiconductor industry landscape, impacting companies like NVIDIA and creating opportunities for domestic Chinese chip manufacturers [1][2]. U.S. Export Controls and NVIDIA's Response - The U.S. has intensified its export controls on AI chips to China since 2022, affecting NVIDIA's A100/H100 chips and prompting the company to develop modified versions for the Chinese market [4][5]. - Despite these adaptations, NVIDIA faces significant challenges with its H20 chip, which has been restricted from export, potentially impacting its revenue from the Chinese market [5][6]. - In the fiscal year ending April 2024, NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $17.108 billion from China, a 66% year-over-year increase, highlighting the importance of this market despite ongoing restrictions [6]. Financial Impact on NVIDIA - NVIDIA has recorded substantial financial losses due to the H20 chip export restrictions, with a write-down of approximately $5.5 billion and an expected revenue drop of $8 billion in the second quarter [7][8]. - The company's market share in China has decreased from 95% four years ago to 50% currently, indicating a significant loss of competitive position [7][8]. Rise of Domestic AI Chip Manufacturers - The U.S. technology blockade is creating a "boomerang effect," accelerating the restructuring of China's AI computing industry and providing opportunities for domestic chip companies [10]. - Companies like Cambricon (寒武纪) have seen dramatic revenue growth, with a 4230.22% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a strong market response to domestic chip development [10][13]. - Another domestic player, Haiguang Information (海光信息), reported a 50.76% increase in revenue, reflecting the growing demand for local AI chips [13]. Market Demand and Future Projections - Domestic cloud service providers are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in the next three years [14]. - The proportion of AI servers in China sourced from domestic suppliers is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a self-sufficiency rate of 82% by 2027 [16]. Industry Consolidation and Collaboration - The industry is witnessing consolidation, exemplified by the strategic merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, which is expected to enhance technological collaboration and market competitiveness [19][20]. - This merger signifies a shift from individual company efforts to a more collaborative approach in the AI chip sector, aiming to strengthen the entire supply chain [20][21]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Continuous government support for AI chip development is boosting confidence across the industry, fostering innovation and market expansion [21][22]. - With ongoing policy backing and technological advancements, China's position in the global AI market is anticipated to strengthen further [22].

Group 1 - The U.S. government's escalating AI chip export controls are reshaping the global semiconductor industry landscape [1][3] - Nvidia has faced significant challenges due to U.S. sanctions, leading to a decline in its market share in China from 95% to 50% over four years [8][6] - The introduction of the H20 chip by Nvidia has been impacted by new export restrictions, which could lead to a revenue drop of approximately $8 billion in the upcoming quarter [8][7] Group 2 - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth, with companies like Cambricon reporting a 4230.22% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [9][11] - The integration of companies like Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to enhance technological collaboration and strengthen the domestic AI chip ecosystem [18][19] - The Chinese AI server market is projected to see a decrease in reliance on foreign chips, with local suppliers expected to capture a significant market share by 2025 [15][20] Group 3 - The Chinese government is actively supporting the AI chip industry through various policies, which is boosting confidence and encouraging market expansion [21] - Major tech companies in China, such as Alibaba and Tencent, are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, indicating a strong demand for domestic AI solutions [14][13] - The overall trend indicates a shift from individual company efforts to a more collaborative approach in the Chinese AI chip sector, enhancing competitiveness on a global scale [20]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 石飞月 北京报道 "我们仍在评估有限的选择。在确定新产品设计并获得美国政府的批准之前，我们实际上被中国500亿美元规模的 数据中心市场排除在外。"5月29日，英伟达相关负责人向《华夏时报》记者坦言。由于H20对华出口受限，该公 司当日公布的2026财年第一季度（截至4月27日的季度）财报显示，因库存积压和采购承诺产生了高达45亿美元的 费用。 若美方不解除禁令且英伟达无法及时拿出替代方案，那么该公司在中国AI芯片市场的份额很可能逐渐被国产芯片 占据。好在英伟达新财季表现依然出色，全球AI需求的持续爆发为其业绩提供了有力支撑，公司整体发展前景依 然向好。只是受前期高基数及对华出口受限等因素影响，新财季其营收和净利润增速较此前几个季度已呈现明显 放缓趋势。 芯片出口受限造成财务损失 英伟达表示，公司在2026财年第一季度因H20的库存积压和采购承诺而产生了45亿美元的费用，在新的出口许可 要求实施前，2026财年第一季度H20产品销售额为46亿美元，英伟达当季另有25亿美元的H20订单无法交付。 这背后的主因是美国不断升级的芯片禁令。作为AI浪潮中的"卖 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在人工智能投资热潮的强力助推下，英伟达(NVDA.US)首席执行官黄仁勋2025财年 总薪酬达近 5000 万美元，同比激增46%。这家由其联合创立的芯片巨头，正稳坐全球AI算力市场的头 把交椅。 财务数据印证行业景气度：在2023-2024财年股价暴涨后，尽管2025年因贸易摩擦担忧导致股价回撤约 3%，但市场普遍预期其本财年营收将延续超50%增速。 行业分析师认为，英伟达正构筑"硬件+软件+生态"的三重壁垒：除芯片销售外，其CUDA平台拥有400 万开发者，DGX云服务绑定微软、甲骨文等云巨头，形成难以复制的竞争优势。这种生态优势或将持 续放大头部效应，正如黄仁勋所言："我们正在重新定义计算的未来。" 薪酬结构显示，黄仁勋的股权奖励价值大幅攀升构成主要增量，其基本工资亦从99.65万美元上调至150 万美元。作为掌舵全球市值第三大科技公司的舵手，这位62岁的华裔企业家带领成立30年的英伟达完成 惊人跨越：2025财年(截至2025年1月)营收同比翻倍至1305亿美元，市值突破3万亿美元大关。 核心驱动力源自全球企业加速布局AI基础设施。黄仁勋精准押注生成式AI赛道，将英伟达从游戏显卡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 34% since April 6, despite the announcement of needing a license to export its H20 GPU to China, indicating strong market confidence in the company's valuation and future performance [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Following the 8-K report, Nvidia's stock experienced a 7% sell-off, but analysts remain optimistic, believing the stock is undervalued compared to its historical performance and peers like AMD [1][3]. - Analysts have reiterated a strong buy rating, projecting that the company's performance at the end of the month will exceed that of the first quarter, despite the export challenges for the H20 GPU [3]. - Since the announcement on April 15, Nvidia's stock has risen by 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [6]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Market Dynamics - Analysts estimate that the sale of 1 million H20 GPUs in 2024 could generate $12 billion in revenue, which may contribute to a decline in overall profit margins since these GPUs are priced over 10% lower than Huawei's Ascend 910B [3]. - Major Chinese clients, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, ordered over $16 billion worth of H20 chips in the first quarter, suggesting strong demand and potential for exceeding previous sales figures [7]. - Nvidia's stock remains lower than its peers in most valuation ratios, indicating potential for further appreciation [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Conditions - The recent withdrawal of AI diffusion rules by the Trump administration has introduced uncertainty in the U.S. semiconductor industry, which could benefit Nvidia [7]. - The company has previously navigated export restrictions, such as the ban on A100/H100 GPUs to China, by introducing compliant alternatives like the A800/H800 chips [3]. - Analysts are cautious about upcoming semiconductor tariffs, which could impact pricing and profit margins, but customers have not reduced their capital expenditure expectations [12].

当然，这对英伟达来说最终不是什么大事。该公司后来于2022年11月 发布了 A800/H800芯片，作 为一种合规的变通方案，以重新夺回大中华市场。这4亿美元的潜在收入损失从未完全实现。此外， 2023年10月，英伟达开始开发三款新芯片（H20、L20和L2），旨在符合出口管制规定。这些芯片 于2024年初发布，到当年第一季度末， 有报道 称，与华为的Ascend 910B相比，H20芯片的售价 便宜了10%以上。 自4月6日 以来，英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA） 的股价仍然上涨了 34%，尽管该公司 在 4 月 15 日提 交了 8-K 报告 ，此前该公司宣布需要申请许可证才能将 其 H20 GPU 出口到中国。 8K发布后7%的抛售并没有让分析师感到丝毫担忧。从估值角度来看，分析师仍然认为英伟达相对 于其自身历史表现以及与其最接近的同行（尤其是AMD）而言被低估了。从价格走势来看，这张图 表看起来尤其有吸引力。以下是一个非常简单的分析（怀疑论者可能会觉得好笑）。 总体而言，分析师重申强力买入评级，并预计该公司本月底的业绩将超过第一季度，尽管H20 GPU 对华出口存在一些波折。年底前150美元的目标价是 ...

编译 | 美股研究社 英伟达公司( NASDAQ: NVDA )的GPU 正在彻底改变世界。这给这家半导体巨头带来了巨额利润，但也滋生了生存风险。 目前，英伟达面临三大生存风险。 我们先来看看英伟达2025 财年（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日）的财务业绩和 2026 财年展望。2025 财年，英伟达营收同比增长 114%，达到 1305 亿美元。这得益于全球数据中心对其用于 AI 训练和推理的 GPU 的需求。 | Fiscal | Data Center | Data Center | Gaming | Pro Viz | Automotive | OEM & Other | Total Revenue | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Year | Revenue ($M) | Growth (%) | Revenue (SM) | Revenue ($M) | Revenue (SM) | | | | | | | | | | (SM) | (SM) | | 2025 | 115,186 | 142.40% | 11,350 ...