Core Viewpoints - The short-term outlook for electricity supply and demand in the U.S. shows no signs of tightness, with supply growth potentially outpacing demand. However, by 2030, the construction of data centers, particularly in Texas and the Mid-Atlantic regions, may lead to supply shortages and increased risks to grid reliability [2][4][8] - Current electricity prices are rising, but the burden on households remains manageable, indicating no immediate cost-of-living crisis [10][11] - By 2030, data centers are expected to contribute an additional 33-68 GW (median around 50 GW) to U.S. electricity demand, accounting for nearly half of the total load growth from 2024 to 2030. In comparison, data centers in China and the EU are projected to contribute only 6%-10% to the increase in electricity demand [3][12][49] - The rapid expansion of data centers may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, particularly in clustered regions, and could strain supply chains for core components, potentially delaying the delivery of planned data centers [4][12][55] Group 1: Current Electricity Supply and Demand Situation - In the short term (until 2026), supply is expected to outpace demand, with terminal electricity consumption in the U.S. entering a growth phase after years of stagnation, driven by a resurgence in commercial electricity usage [5][17] - The supply side indicates that the growth rate of electricity supply may exceed that of demand, with power generation capacity utilization not under pressure [6][20] - By 2030, regional supply shortages may emerge, particularly in Texas (ERCOT) and the Mid-Atlantic (PJM) regions, which are expected to face significant demand growth [9][34] Group 2: Electricity Price Trends - From the Consumer Price Index (CPI) perspective, electricity prices are rising faster than overall inflation, but the overall impact on CPI is limited [10][40] - Household electricity prices are at historically high growth rates, yet the burden on household disposable income has only slightly increased, indicating manageable costs for consumers [11][43] Group 3: Impact of AI and Data Centers on Electricity Demand - Predictions indicate that data centers will significantly increase electricity demand, with estimates ranging from 33 GW to 68 GW by 2030, contributing to nearly half of the annual growth in electricity load [12][49] - Globally, data center electricity consumption is expected to double, but its share of total electricity consumption will decrease, with the U.S., China, and Europe accounting for 82% of global capacity [54] - The rapid expansion of data centers poses challenges, particularly in clustered areas, leading to potential delays in new data center constructions due to supply chain pressures [55]

Supply and Demand Outlook - In the short term (until 2026), the supply of electricity in the U.S. is expected to slightly exceed demand, with a projected compound growth rate of around 2% for electricity consumption[4] - The average utilization rate of power generation equipment has been declining since 2001, indicating a relatively ample supply compared to demand[4] - By 2030, the construction of data centers is projected to add an additional electricity load of 33-68GW, contributing nearly half of the total growth in electricity load from 2024 to 2030[2] Regional Supply Issues - Texas (ERCOT) and the Mid-Atlantic (PJM) regions are expected to face significant supply-demand imbalances, with Texas projected to have an average growth rate of 10.7% in electricity demand for 2025-2026, compared to the national average of 2.7%[8] - By 2030, if all announced power plant closures occur, most regions will not meet reliability standards, particularly ERCOT and PJM[7] Electricity Pricing Trends - The electricity CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year in September, contributing only 0.1 percentage points to the overall CPI, indicating limited impact on overall inflation[9] - Residential electricity prices have seen a growth rate of 3.8% in the first eight months of the year, which is higher than the projected 3% for 2024, placing it in the 79.4th percentile historically[10] Impact of AI and Data Centers - The rapid expansion of data centers is expected to significantly increase electricity demand, with estimates suggesting that this could account for approximately 45% of the annual growth rate in electricity load by 2030[11] - Globally, data center electricity consumption is projected to double by 2030, although its share of total electricity consumption is expected to decrease[12]