机构：华西证券 研究员：唐爽爽/李佳妮 事件概述 新东方发布FY26Q2（截至2025 年11 月30 日）业绩，公司FY26Q2 净收入/归母净利/Non-GAAP 归母净 利（剔除股权激励和公允价值变动损益影响）为11.91/0.455/0.729 亿美元，同比增长 14.7%/42.3%/68.6%。收入超预期主要由于新教育业务增速回升、东方甄选复苏，利润增速高于收入主 要由于毛利率提升1.2PCT、销售费用率下降2.6PCT。 出国教育业务增速分化，核心板块展现增长韧性。1）FY26Q2 海外考试准备和出国咨询业务同比变化 分别为+4.1%/-3.0%（FY26Q1 为1.0%及2.0%）。2）大学生及成人考试业务同比增长12.8%（FY26Q1 为14.4%）。 FY2026Q2 归母净利率提升幅度低于毛利率，主要由于其他收入占比下降、公允价值变动收益转负，部 分抵消了费用率优化的正向影响。（ 1 ） FY2026Q2 公司毛利率/ 归母净利率分别为53.3%/3.8% ， 同比 提升1.2/0.7PCT。（2）从费用率来看，FY2026Q2 销售/管理费用率分别为16.3%/31.4%，同比下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported FY26Q2 net revenue of $119.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at $4.55 million, up 42.3%, and Non-GAAP net profit at $7.29 million, reflecting a 68.6% increase [2] - The revenue exceeded expectations primarily due to the recovery in new education business and the revival of Dongfang Zhenxuan, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to a 1.2 percentage point increase in gross margin and a 2.6 percentage point decrease in sales expense ratio [2] - The company has successfully advanced its shareholder return plan, having fully paid the first cash dividend of $0.06 per ordinary share and initiated a $300 million share buyback plan, repurchasing approximately 1.6 million ADS for a total consideration of about $86.3 million as of January 27, 2026 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Performance - Non-academic business showed a recovery with a 6.4% increase in enrollment and a 10.2% rise in deferred revenue in the first half of the year. The new education business grew by 21.6% year-on-year in FY26Q2, significantly up from 15.3% in FY26Q1, driven by a focus on core education services and improved teaching quality [3] - The deferred revenue balance reached $2.162 billion, a 10.2% year-on-year increase, slightly up from 10.0% in FY26Q1 [3] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for FY26Q2 were 53.3% and 3.8%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.2 and 0.7 percentage points. The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 2.6 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively [4] Financial Guidance - The company provided FY26Q3 guidance for revenue growth of 11-14% in USD terms, with an annual revenue growth forecast of 5%-10% for FY26. New business is expected to grow by 20%-25%, while high school business is projected to grow by 13% [5] - Long-term, the company is positioned as a rare national leader with stable core education revenue, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to enhance profit margins [5] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY26-28 at $5.297 billion, $5.778 billion, and $6.296 billion, respectively, and net profit forecasts at $458 million, $526 million, and $577 million, respectively, corresponding to EPS of $0.28, $0.32, and $0.35 [5]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental has experienced a challenging fiscal year 2025 and is expected to face an even tougher fiscal year 2026, with significant concerns regarding slowing growth and declining net profits [1][3][12]. Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal year 2025, New Oriental reported revenue of $1.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. For the entire fiscal year, revenue reached $4.9 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, a dramatic decline of 73.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - Operating costs and expenses increased by 11.2% to $1.25 billion, surpassing the revenue growth rate of 9.4% [4]. Reasons for Declining Profit - The significant drop in net profit is primarily attributed to increased costs and expenses, including a notable goodwill impairment of $60.3 million, which was a one-time charge related to previous acquisitions of kindergartens [4][7]. - Excluding the goodwill impairment, the profit would have shown a substantial year-on-year increase of approximately 150% [7]. Business Segment Performance - New Oriental's education new business, primarily K9, has seen a gradual decline in revenue growth rates, with quarterly growth rates of 49.8%, 42.6%, 34.5%, and 32.5% respectively [9]. - The non-academic tutoring business reported approximately 918,000 enrollments in Q4, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [9]. - Traditional overseas exam preparation and consulting services have stabilized, with revenue growth of 14.6% and 8.2% respectively in Q4 [10]. Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental expects revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.51 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5% [12][13]. - The full fiscal year 2026 revenue is projected to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, with an anticipated growth rate of 5% to 10% [13]. - The K9 business is expected to grow around 20%, while overseas-related businesses are projected to grow by 4% to 5% [13].