液冷：GPU+ASIC 渗透加速，订单能见度到 2028 年 20251207 摘要 GB200 服务器液冷渗透率预计高达 75%，GB300 接近 100%，AMD 和亚马逊新机架亦提供液冷方案，预示 2026 年服务器液冷渗透率将显 著提升，液冷技术成为高功耗芯片散热的关键。 芯片散热方案选择主要依据热流密度和单机柜功耗，风冷上限为每平方 厘米 1,000 瓦和单机柜 100 千瓦。尽管液冷是高功耗必选项，但成本因 素可能导致用户选择次优方案，如 AMD 和亚马逊同时提供风冷和液冷 机架。 英伟达正研发微通道液冷技术以提高散热效率，预计 2026 年第四季度 供应链成熟。谷歌已采用分流冷板和裸芯片冷却技术，通过主动流量控 制和 N+1 冗余架构实现精准可靠的散热管理，并适应 AI 训练负载波动。 预计 2026 年英伟达 GPU 机柜出货量 10-12 万个，对应市场规模达 100 亿美元。ASIC 服务器出货量预计 800 万颗，40%渗透率对应 39 亿美元市场。GPU 加 ASIC 服务器市场规模有望超 150 亿美元，25-26 年复合增长率约 55%。 Q&A 目前数据中心液冷方案的渗透率情况如 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $2.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a GAAP gross margin of 12.8%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $11.55 billion from a previous estimate of $10.85 billion, and expects Non-GAAP EPS to be $5.50, up from $5.00 [2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the increasing demand for switches, particularly in the communication terminal market, which saw a revenue of $1.641 billion in Q2 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [3]. - The company anticipates continued growth in the communication terminal market, projecting a year-on-year increase of 60-65% for Q3 2025 [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for ASIC servers and Ethernet switches due to the explosion of inference demand [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of $211 million, a significant increase of 122% year-on-year [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was $161 million, reflecting a 49% year-on-year growth [2]. Operational Analysis - The company's enterprise terminal market revenue in Q2 2025 was $433 million, down 37% year-on-year, but showed a positive trend compared to Q1 2025 [3]. - The company is positioned to gain more projects as the design and manufacturing complexity of ASIC servers increases [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $645 million, $781 million, and $1.078 billion, respectively [10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong customer base, including major clients like Google, Amazon, and Meta, which will support its growth in the data center market [4].