A股复盘 | 小熊拌面 / 2025.12.18 场子这么快就冷下来了？还以为今天会接着奏乐接着舞，结果又是一个缩量下跌。 昨天挥挥手，放量八百多亿，结果今天硬是缩量一千五百亿，暖了个寂寞！ 人民币汇率升至14个月新高，但股市却缩量调整。 MSCI 中国指数与人民币汇率之间的 20 日相关性，过去八年平均约为 0.3，现已降至负 0.3，为一年多来的最低水平。 澳大利亚 Pepperstone Group 研究策略师 Dilin Wu 表示："这种分化非常重要，这表明当前资金更愿意通过外汇和利率市场来表达对中国 资产的配置，而不是股票市场。" 他指出："在企业盈利明显修复、以及对国内需求恢复形成更强信心之前，即便人民币保持强势，股市表现仍可能继续落后。" 盘面上， 今天上午传媒股大涨，一开始以为是谷子经济概念，没想到又出现了新词——犒赏经济！ 17日，学习时报刊文称，一种被称为"犒赏经济"的新型消费模式在年轻群体中悄然兴起并迅速发展，成为拉动内需、扩大消费的新引擎。 报道称，所谓"犒赏经济"，是指消费者在面对工作生活压力或特定的心理需求时，通过购买价格在承受范围内的非必需品或体验服务，以获 取即时性愉悦感、自 ...

Group 1: Figma vs Adobe - Figma's success is attributed to its focus on "collaboration" as a core feature, contrasting with Adobe's file-centric approach [2][3] - Adobe's collaboration is based on file transfer, while Figma allows real-time editing on a shared canvas, enabling true synchronous collaboration [3] - Existing giants like Adobe struggle to adapt due to their historical success paths and internal resistance to change [3] Group 2: Online Reinforcement Learning - Cursor's use of online reinforcement learning (RL) optimizes its code completion feature, Tab, by treating user interactions as feedback signals for real-time training [6][10] - The model's suggestion volume has decreased by 21%, while the acceptance rate has increased by 28%, indicating improved performance [6] Group 3: Plaud's Success - Plaud's success is rooted in recognizing the value of context, viewing conversations as a form of intelligence and a significant data source [12][14] - The company designs its hardware and software to effectively capture and analyze user context, positioning itself as a context collector rather than just a recording device [15] - Plaud's approach emphasizes a "reverse thinking" strategy, focusing on how AI can serve users by prompting them for context rather than the other way around [16][18] Group 4: Creating Delight in Products - Delight in products is defined as a combination of joy and surprise, with three main strategies: exceeding expectations, anticipating needs, and removing friction [25][27] - A systematic approach to creating delight involves redefining user categories based on motivations, transforming those motivations into opportunities, and ensuring that delight becomes an organizational capability [28][30] Group 5: Evaluating AI Product Retention - A16Z suggests that AI companies should measure retention starting from the third month (M3) to better understand their true user base, as early data may include many transient users [34][35] - The new metric M12/M3 is proposed to assess long-term retention quality, indicating how many users remain after a year compared to the third month [36][39] Group 6: Palantir's FDE Model - The Forward Deployed Engineer (FDE) model involves engineers embedded at client sites to bridge the gap between product capabilities and client needs, focusing on product exploration [42][46] - FDE teams consist of Echo (consulting analysts) and Delta (deployment engineers), each with distinct roles to ensure effective client engagement and product development [49][50] - The FDE model is particularly relevant in the AI era, where high-value contracts justify deep client integration and where product-market fit is often unclear [53][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - LifeMD achieved total revenues of $65.7 million, a 49% increase year over year [12] - Core telehealth revenue grew by 70% compared to the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $1.3 million in the same period last year [12][14] - GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $608,000, or $0.01 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $7.5 million, or a loss of $0.19 per share, in Q1 2024 [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA totaled $8.7 million for the first quarter, compared to $100,000 in the year-ago period [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The telehealth business saw a 70% revenue growth, driven by the weight management program and new initiatives like men's hormone therapy [5][12] - Active telehealth subscribers increased by 22% year over year to over 290,000 [12] - WorkSimply active subscribers declined by 5% to 158,000, but the business continued to perform well financially with quarterly adjusted EBITDA exceeding $3 million [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - LifeMD expanded its fee-for-service Medicare coverage to over 21 million beneficiaries across 26 states, with plans to reach 49 states and over 60 million beneficiaries by the end of Q2 [9] - The company is entering high-growth verticals such as women's health and behavioral health, with new offerings expected to launch soon [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - LifeMD aims to build a trusted vertically integrated marketplace for healthcare services, prescription medications, and over-the-counter products [16] - The company is expanding its RExMD brand beyond sexual health into areas like weight management, behavioral health, insomnia, and hormone replacement therapy [6][10] - Strategic collaborations with Lilly Direct and NovoCare are designed to improve access to GLP-1 medications for weight management patients [7][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory for the remainder of the year, citing strong early traction across key initiatives [16] - The company is focused on delivering a comprehensive, convenient, and outcomes-driven care experience [11][17] - Management highlighted the importance of insurance in their offerings, believing it enhances accessibility and retention [26] Other Important Information - LifeMD's gross margin for Q1 was 86.8%, a decline of 270 basis points year over year but an increase of 150 basis points sequentially [12][13] - The company raised its financial guidance for 2025, expecting total revenues in the range of $268 million to $275 million [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about your relationships with Lilly and Novo? - Management clarified that the pricing for medications is the same for all patients, regardless of whether they come through LifeMD, and that they do not receive compensation from drug manufacturers [21][22] Question: What is the role of insurance in your offerings? - Management emphasized the importance of insurance in making care more accessible and driving retention, while also acknowledging the complexity it adds to their programs [26] Question: What were the main drivers of earnings upside compared to expectations? - The main driver was stronger-than-expected retention revenue, with a small contribution from higher acquisitions in the weight management space [28][29] Question: Can you provide an update on your compounding pharmacy? - The compounding pharmacy is on track to be licensed by summer, with expectations to scale the mail order pharmacy significantly [30] Question: Does your 2025 guidance include contributions from mental health and women's health? - Yes, but the contributions are expected to be minimal initially, with growth anticipated as the offerings are fully integrated [34] Question: How much of the positive guidance revision is related to the recent pharmacy announcement? - None of the guidance revision is related to the pharmacy announcement; it is based on Q1 performance [40][41]