Core Insights - The PwC report indicates that U.S. consumers expect their holiday spending to decrease by an average of 5% compared to 2024, marking the first significant decline since 2020 [2][3] - Over 80% of U.S. consumers anticipate cutting back on spending in the next six months due to factors such as new tariffs, rising prices, and increased living costs [2] - The report highlights a notable trend among Generation Z (under 27 years old), who expect a 23% reduction in spending compared to the previous year, contrasting sharply with a 37% increase in 2024 [2] Consumer Behavior Trends - Ali Furman from PwC notes that Generation Z is particularly sensitive to value and cost transparency, viewing alternative products not as downgrades but as smart shopping choices [6] - This generation prioritizes experiences over material goods, often choosing to spend on concert tickets, hotel stays, and flights rather than new items, which reflects the pressures of rising experience costs [6] - The emerging trend of "reward economy" is seen as an upgrade from the "lipstick economy," focusing on emotional value and consumer differentiation, but it may lead to increased spending without proper financial planning [6] Financial Indicators - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reports that the proportion of Americans only making minimum credit card payments is nearing historical highs [7] - TransUnion's research shows a shift from high-interest credit card debt to personal loans, with personal loan issuance increasing by 18% year-over-year, reaching a record balance of $257 billion [7] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 in August, driven by pessimism regarding the current economic situation, breaking a four-month growth streak [7]

想象这样一个场景： 凌晨两点，在美国曼哈顿一幢写字楼里，年轻的投行分析师莉莉在电脑键盘上敲下最后一个句号，屏幕 右下角弹出的工作时长停在"14小时23分"。莉莉并没有立刻收拾东西，而是点开外卖软件，花35美元点 了一份布鲁克林网红店的松露意面——不是因为饿，只是因为"一天的时间里，总该有点甜"。 类似的场景，正在越来越多美国年轻人的日常生活中反复上演。对于这种现象，经济学家们赋予其一个 新概念——"犒赏经济"。 简单地说，犒赏经济是一种"犒赏消费驱动型"的经济形态。 不久前，投资银行皮尔·亨特的零售分析师约翰·史蒂文森在接受美国媒体采访时对此进行了详细阐述。 在史蒂文森看来，犒赏经济可以被视作"口红经济"的升级版。口红经济带有一定的消费降级色彩，即当 经济形势不好、收入普遍下降时，人们会倾向于减少大额支出，转而购买一些类似口红这样价格不算很 贵但可以提供一定情绪价值的商品。相较而言，犒赏经济有着更强的消费分化色彩，对情绪价值的追求 度也更高。"在'犒赏经济'下，人们一方面会削减日常生活开支，另一方面会花很多的钱去看一场演唱 会。" 据欧美多家媒体报道，截至2024年末，美国信用卡违约率已经攀升至14年来最高值 ...