ab 31 December 2025 Global Research First Read China Consumer Appliances Sector 2026 home appliances trade-in subsidies and our thoughts What's new? On December 30, NDRC and Ministry of Finance announced the 2026 large scale renewal of equipment and consumer goods policies. The release date was slightly ahead of our expectation (the 2025 version was released on January 8, 2025). Overall, we think this release is largely in-line with market expectation, with white goods and smart home products being the majo ...

Group 1: Core Points - The Zhejiang province will implement a vehicle trade-in program from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [1][25] - The program aims to encourage consumers to replace old vehicles with new ones, providing subsidies for eligible purchases [3][18] Group 2: Subsidy Details - For scrapping and updating vehicles, personal consumers can receive a subsidy of 12% of the vehicle price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [7][9][19] - The eligibility for the subsidy requires that the old vehicle must be registered in the applicant's name before January 8, 2025, and the new vehicle must be purchased within the program period [13][21] Group 3: Application Process - Consumers can apply for subsidies through platforms like Alipay and WeChat by searching for the "Zhejiang Auto Trade-in" mini-program [17][22] - Required documents for application include the scrapping certificate, vehicle deregistration certificate, sales invoice, and vehicle registration certificate, all of which must be obtained after January 1, 2026 [13][21] Group 4: Additional Consumer Products - The program also includes subsidies for household appliances such as televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a subsidy of 15% of the actual sales price and a maximum of 1,500 yuan per item [30][31] - Consumers can participate in both online and offline activities to claim these subsidies, with specific guidelines for each method [32][43]

转自：北京日报客户端 记者从北京市商务局获悉，北京市将于2026年1月1日起，接续实施家电、数码等领域消费品以旧换新补 贴。2026年1月1日起，补贴资格每日上午8点开始发放，消费者可通过京通小程序"家电、数码以旧换新 专区"领取线上或线下补贴资格。 补贴资格 每日 8 时开放领取,补贴资格逐日发放,领 取后需在有效期内使用;若未使用,过期后 仍可重新领取。 线上资格领取 线下资格领取 提示:线上资格仅限在指定电商 提示:线下资格仅限在北京地区 平台使用,具体平台可查看【常 指定实体门店使用,门店名单可 查看【常见问题 >> 购买渠道】 见问题 >> 购买渠道] 电视机补贴资格 领取 电冰箱补贴资格 领取 l 洗衣机补贴资格 领取 IF 空调补贴资格 领取 电脑补贴资格 领取 le 热水器补贴资格 领取 点击收起 会 我的券码 > 补贴资格使用 线上消费 1 打开京通,首页点击【家电以旧换新专区】 2 【线上资格领取】模块选择对应家电品类, 完成资格领取。 3 点击当前页面【我的券码】,查看并复制 对应品类条码(资格)。 4 前往支持补贴的电商平台,完成兑换绑定 即可使用。 线下消费 1 打开京通,首页点击【 ...

文丨《BUG》栏目 周文猛 近日，海尔、美的、小米、TCL等多家企业联合发声将遵守空调《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公 约》（下称"自律公约"），表态将全面认同并严格遵守公约各项条款，共同维护行业整体形象与竞争 力，为空调"铝代铜"技术突破与高质量发展注入动力。 值得注意的是，此次发声遵守"自律公约"的企业中，除了格力电器外，其他头部空调企业均悉数到场。 今年以来，格力电器先后多次表态"没有空调'铝代铜'计划"，在行业集体发声遵循"自律公约"并有序推 动"铝代铜"的背景下，格力的做法有些格格不入。 在与《BUG》栏目沟通中，格力最新回应称："目前没有'铝代铜'计划，铜材在导热性、耐腐蚀性和长 期可靠性方面具有优势，在没有100%把握之前，格力空调不会铝代铜"。 一方面，是整个空调行业对于"铝代铜"进展的热切观望，另一方面，却是头部厂商明确表态"没有把 握"。空调行业的"铝代铜"推进工作，道阻且长。 美的、海尔等共推"铝代铜"，格力却"缺席"了 近日举办的2025中国家电科技年会上，空调领域"铝代铜"创新应用及产业标准落地成为一大重点。大会 期间，由海尔、海信等企业参与的《房间空调器用铝管翅式热交换器生产线建设 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Durables, specifically the white goods sector - **Key Players**: Midea, Haier, Gree, Hisense Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Divergent Performance in 3Q25**: - Midea and Haier reported approximately 10% revenue and profit growth, exceeding expectations - Gree and Hisense experienced significant declines in profits, with Gree reporting a year-over-year profit decline of SD% [1][10] 2. **Domestic Market Dynamics**: - Split AC growth showed notable divergence, with Gree facing a sequential revenue decline while Midea, Haier, and Hisense reported revenue growth [1] - The market anticipates a deceleration in domestic growth into 4Q25 and 2026 due to a higher base, with expected shipment declines of 10% and 5% for major white goods [2][16] 3. **Pricing and Margins**: - Competition remains a key focus, particularly in the AC industry, with less competitive pricing observed compared to previous periods - Despite demand pressures, significant price cuts are not expected due to leading players' focus on profitability and lean inventory [3] 4. **Overseas Growth as a Key Driver**: - Overseas markets, particularly APAC and Europe, are expected to drive growth for Chinese white goods companies, supported by past investments in manufacturing and branding [4][6] 5. **Shareholder Returns**: - Current share prices imply an average dividend yield of 5% to 6% for covered white goods stocks, providing downside protection amid growth concerns [7] 6. **Future Outlook for Key Players**: - Midea and Haier are expected to continue leading the sector with positive growth, while Gree faces persistent pressure due to high domestic market exposure [8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Earnings Revisions**: - Earnings forecasts for Midea and Haier have been raised, while estimates for Gree and Hisense have been lowered to reflect recent performance [14] 2. **Management's Strategic Focus**: - Midea's management aims for revenue growth of MSD-HSD% CAGR from 2026 to 2028, with a focus on market share gains in refrigerators and washing machines, and margin improvements in AC [33][34] 3. **Investment in Technology**: - Midea plans to invest in AI and robotics, focusing on robotic home appliances and humanoid robots, indicating a strategic shift towards automation and advanced technology [34] 4. **Valuation Adjustments**: - Target prices for Midea and Haier have been adjusted based on updated earnings forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for these companies [35] 5. **Market Sentiment**: - Consumer sentiment has pulled back, but property indicators in the US have shown improvement, suggesting a mixed outlook for consumer durables [31] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the performance of major players in the white goods sector, market dynamics, and future growth strategies.

Summary of China Consumer Pulse Q3 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Consumer Market - **Key Sectors Analyzed**: Alcohol, Apparel, Beauty, Travel, Luxury Goods, Autos Core Insights 1. **Mixed Consumer Sentiment**: Chinese consumer sentiment remains mixed, with a notable divergence in spending patterns across sectors [2][29][30] 2. **Experiential Spending Resilience**: Experiential categories such as restaurants (+24% YoY) and travel (+16% YoY) show resilience, indicating a shift towards experiences over goods [2][35] 3. **Premium Demand Recovery**: Onshore luxury spending has improved, with premium auto sales stabilizing and showing positive year-over-year growth in September, ending a 19-month decline [2][30] 4. **Digital Channels Outperform**: Digital retail channels continue to outperform traditional retail, although there are signs of weakness in specific segments like beauty e-commerce, which saw a -3% decline [2][29][30] 5. **GDP and Retail Growth Slowdown**: China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, with retail growth easing to 2.1%, attributed to fading consumer incentives and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][29] 6. **Deflationary Trends**: Deflationary pressures persist across travel and hotel pricing, with moderate price declines observed [12][29] Sector-Specific Insights Premium Beverages - **Weak Demand**: Ultra-premium Baijiu prices continued to slide in Q3 due to weak demand, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][30] Apparel and Sportswear - **Mixed Performance**: The apparel market is growing online but remains negative offline, with brands like Adidas showing over 20% growth while Nike faces challenges [5][22] Home Appliances - **Sector Contraction**: The home appliance sector contracted by 7% in Q3, with significant declines in both domestic and overseas exports [7][31] Luxury Goods - **Signs of Improvement**: Early signs of recovery in the luxury market, with brands like Hermès and Louis Vuitton performing well, while Kering struggles [8][9][30] Automotive - **Sales Growth Slowdown**: Auto sales growth slowed to +2.5% YoY in Q3, with EV sales decelerating to +12.5% YoY. However, EV penetration reached 55.1% [10][16][17] Hotels - **RevPAR Declines**: Domestic hotel RevPAR continues to decline, with luxury hotels being the only segment not experiencing persistent declines [10][23] Travel - **Resilient Growth**: The travel industry showed stable positive growth of 16% during the National Day Golden Week, reflecting ongoing domestic travel trends [11][12] Cosmetics - **Moderate Growth**: The cosmetics sector saw a +6.5% YoY increase in gross merchandise value, marking an improvement from previous quarters [13][29] Additional Considerations - **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to lead to cautious, value-driven consumer behavior, highlighting the uneven recovery across sectors [3][32] - **Investment Implications**: The outlook for various sectors remains cautious, with potential growth in EVs and premium segments, while traditional sectors face challenges [16][17][22][23]

Summary of Midea Group 3Q25 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Midea Group (000333.SZ) - **Industry**: Home Appliances and HVAC Key Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: - Total revenue: Rmb112 billion, up +10% YoY - Net profit: Rmb12 billion, up +9% YoY - Revenue and net profit exceeded expectations by +2% and +6% respectively [1][7] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Increased by 0.3 percentage points YoY to 26.7% - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: Increased by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 10.6% [1][3] Business Segments Performance - **2C (Consumer) Business**: - Implied growth of ~10% in 3Q25, driven by resilience in overseas markets [2] - Domestic split AC, washing machines, and refrigerator shipments showed mixed results: -9%, +2%, and +5% YoY respectively [2] - **2B (Business Solutions)**: - Continued robust growth with double-digit percentage increases, particularly in intelligent building solutions [2] - Sales in energy solutions, industrial technology, and robotics grew by +21%, +25%, and +9% YoY respectively in 9M25 [2] Margin and Efficiency Insights - **Margin Improvement**: - GPM expansion primarily from the AC business due to pricing and product mix improvements [3] - OPM increase supported by efficiency gains, with a reduction in sales/admin expense ratio by 0.8 percentage points YoY [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - **Operating Cash Flow**: - Generated Rmb20 billion in 3Q25, down from Rmb27 billion in 3Q24, attributed to support for distributors during DTC transformation [4] - **Balance Sheet**: - Maintains a healthy balance sheet with a high net cash position and strong cash flow generation to support CAPEX and shareholder returns [6] Investment Thesis - **Market Position**: - Midea is a leading player in China's HVAC and major appliances market, with rapid expansion into overseas markets and business solutions [8] - **Growth Drivers**: - Focus on intelligent building solutions as a significant long-term growth driver due to revenue opportunities and market consolidation potential [8] Valuation and Risks - **Price Target**: - 12-month target price of Rmb94 for A-shares and HK$101 for H-shares, based on a 16x exit multiple applied to 2027E EPS [9] - **Key Risks**: - Potential demand disruption in white goods due to weaker global macro conditions - Rising material costs impacting product margins - Execution risks related to premiumization strategy - Increased competition in the low-to-mid-end segment [10] Conclusion - Midea Group's strong performance in 3Q25, driven by both consumer and business segments, along with effective margin management and a solid balance sheet, positions the company favorably for future growth in the competitive home appliances and HVAC market.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Consumer Durables** industry, specifically the **air conditioning (AC)** segment, highlighting the competitive dynamics among major players like **Xiaomi**, **Midea**, **Gree**, **Haier**, and **Hisense** [1][4][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The China AC market is characterized by high consolidation, with leading players enjoying higher margins due to economies of scale and vertical integration. The industry's profit pool has grown from **Rmb 22 billion (US$ 3.1 billion)** in 2019 to **Rmb 32 billion (US$ 4.5 billion)** in 2024, reflecting a **CAGR of 8%** in profits [7][17]. - **Xiaomi's Strategy**: Xiaomi has renewed its focus on the AC market, emphasizing entry-level products. This strategy aims to leverage its distribution efficiency and technology ecosystem, potentially increasing its market share to approximately **10%** in the mid-term [4][5][19]. - **Competitive Response**: In response to Xiaomi's market share gains, traditional players like Midea, Haier, and Hisense have adjusted their product offerings and pricing strategies. Midea and Haier have increased their market shares from **32%/12%** to **37%/14%** between December 2024 and June 2025, while Gree's share has slightly declined [22][29]. - **Profitability Concerns**: Increased competition may lead to pricing pressures, impacting the overall profit pool. Gree is expected to be the most affected due to its reliance on the domestic split AC market, which constitutes **51%** of its revenue and **56%** of its profits in 2024 [6][47][60]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Scenario Analysis**: The report outlines four scenarios to assess the potential impact on the industry profit pool and individual company revenues. In the base case, a **7%** reduction in retail prices is anticipated, leading to a **6%** decline in industry profits compared to 2024 [49][50]. - **Xiaomi's Manufacturing Plans**: Xiaomi is working on improving its manufacturing efficiency by establishing a factory in Wuhan, expected to be operational by the end of 2025. This move aims to enhance vertical integration and reduce reliance on external suppliers [37][39]. - **Distribution Efficiency**: Xiaomi's competitive edge lies in its distribution model, primarily online, which allows for lower customer acquisition costs. The company plans to expand its offline presence through Mi Home stores, which could further enhance its market position [37][42]. Company-Specific Insights - **Midea**: Expected to be the most resilient player, leveraging its manufacturing advantages and distribution efficiency. Midea's proactive strategies have allowed it to maintain a competitive edge [45][63]. - **Gree**: Faces significant profit pressure due to its high reliance on the domestic market and less proactive pricing strategies. Gree's price premium is the highest among peers, which may lead to greater vulnerability in a competitive environment [47][60]. - **Haier and Hisense**: Both companies are positioned as tier-2 players but are making strides in supply chain integration. Haier's new compressor factory is expected to enhance its cost structure and product competitiveness [47][63]. Conclusion - The competitive landscape in the China AC market is evolving, with Xiaomi's aggressive expansion posing challenges to established players. The focus on efficiency, pricing strategies, and product offerings will be critical for companies to navigate the changing dynamics and maintain profitability in the face of increased competition [4][46][49].

Group 1 - The extreme heat wave this summer has significantly increased electricity demand in Europe, with a 7.5% year-on-year rise in overall electricity demand in the EU during the peak heat wave period from June 23 to July 3 [1] - The heat wave has caused substantial operational challenges for power plants, leading to a 40% month-on-month decrease in hydroelectric generation for the UK power company SSE due to high temperatures and severe drought [1] - Many inland nuclear power plants in France and Switzerland have had to temporarily shut down or reduce output due to cooling difficulties caused by high temperatures [1] Group 2 - The demand for air conditioning and cooling devices has surged, with 6% of households in Germany currently having air conditioning, projected to rise to 8% by 2030 [2] - Air conditioning sales on the European shopping platform Galaxus skyrocketed by 233% year-on-year in June, marking a historical high, with first-half shipments surpassing the total for the previous year [2] - The EU has emphasized the need for new energy assets and infrastructure to be designed with climate resilience to withstand extreme heat, as solar power generation in June increased by 22% year-on-year, reaching a historical high [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Changhong Meiling is reported at 7.43 yuan, down 0.02 yuan from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.27% [1] - The company operates in the home appliance manufacturing industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of products such as refrigerators and air conditioners [1] - The air conditioning business achieved revenue of approximately 15.407 billion yuan in the 2024 annual report, representing a year-on-year growth of about 33.20% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds on that day was 5.6321 million yuan, accounting for 0.09% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow of main funds was 11.0562 million yuan, representing 0.17% of the circulating market value [1]