Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on air conditioning products [6]. Core Insights - The air conditioning market experienced a significant year-on-year growth in January 2026, with production reaching 19.93 million units, an increase of 19.52%, and sales at 19.85 million units, up by 11.92% [6][7]. - Domestic sales accounted for 8.26 million units, reflecting a 14.53% increase, while exports reached 11.59 million units, growing by 10.13% [6][7]. - The report highlights the impact of the Chinese New Year timing on sales figures, indicating a positive trend in domestic sales compared to previous years [6]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - January 2026 production: 19.93 million units, +19.52% YoY - January 2026 sales: 19.85 million units, +11.92% YoY - Domestic sales: 8.26 million units, +14.53% YoY - Exports: 11.59 million units, +10.13% YoY - Ending inventory: 1.49 million units, -10.93% YoY [6][7]. Manufacturer Performance - Gree: +2.67% YoY (Domestic +1.67%, Export +4.17%) - Midea: +21.75% YoY (Domestic +47.50%, Export +6.51%) - Haier: +2.12% YoY (Domestic +35.92%, Export -38.37%) - Hisense: +19.21% YoY (Domestic +58.54%, Export +4.55%) - Changhong: -26.21% YoY (Domestic -60.38%, Export +10.00%) [6]. Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in domestic sales, with a projected improvement in the coming months due to low comparative bases from previous years [6]. - The concentration of market share among leading manufacturers is increasing, with Midea and Gree showing positive trends in market share [6]. - External sales are expected to stabilize as the base effects diminish, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the export market [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the air conditioning market is approaching a turning point, with expectations of moderate growth as the base effects from previous years lessen [6]. - The overall market environment is seen as favorable for leading manufacturers, with a recommendation to invest in Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, and Gree Electric Appliances due to their strong market positions and dividend yields [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Province has announced the implementation details for the 2026 subsidy program for replacing old household appliances and digital products, following the earlier vehicle trade-in subsidy policy [1][3]. Subsidy Scope - The subsidy covers six categories of household appliances: refrigerators (including freezers), washing machines (including washer-dryer combos), televisions (including laser TVs, excluding projectors), air conditioners (including home central air conditioning), computers (branded, excluding assembled machines), and water heaters (including wall-mounted boilers) [2][5]. - It also includes four categories of digital and smart products: mobile phones, tablets, smartwatches (bands), and smart glasses, with a single item sales price not exceeding 6,000 yuan [2][5]. Subsidy Standards - For household appliances, a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price is provided for energy-efficient or water-efficient products, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item for each consumer [6]. - For digital and smart products, a similar subsidy of 15% applies, with a maximum of 500 yuan per item for each consumer [6]. Participation Process - Consumers must log into the Yunshangfu APP for real-name registration and obtain subsidy vouchers [7]. - Upon purchasing eligible products, consumers will receive an immediate discount at the point of sale, and merchants must issue invoices reflecting the actual payment plus the government subsidy [7]. - Merchants are required to collect necessary information for subsidy verification, including product serial numbers and activation codes for certain devices [8]. Basic Conditions for Participants - Participants must be legally registered entities with independent accounting, primarily engaged in retail of household appliances and digital products, and must have the capability for after-sales services [9]. - They must have a good credit status, with no significant safety incidents or violations in the past two years [9]. - Participants must publicly disclose product pricing and ensure compliance with subsidy regulations [10]. Responsibilities and Requirements - The business department is responsible for determining and publishing the list of participating entities, overseeing compliance, and managing funds [12]. - The finance department will handle fund disbursement and monitoring, aiming for efficient subsidy payments [12]. - Market regulation departments will ensure product quality and price monitoring, protecting consumer rights [12]. - Participants must adhere to legal regulations and avoid fraudulent practices, with penalties for violations [14].

Group 1 - The air conditioning market is expected to enter a new development phase in 2026 after experiencing a "price drop and volume increase" adjustment in 2025, with retail volume growing by 4.7% year-on-year, while retail value slightly decreased by 0.4% [1] - In early 2026, the market faces new challenges due to the implementation of a new national subsidy policy and the timing of the Spring Festival, leading to a double-digit decline in production plans for February, with domestic production down by 13.8% to 6.03 million units and export production down by 12.7% to 7.51 million units [4] - Despite the challenges, air conditioning companies show a positive outlook, with domestic production in January-February increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, reflecting optimism about the domestic market [4] Group 2 - The new national subsidy policy is expected to stimulate consumer demand that was suppressed in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a focus on high-efficiency and high-technology products, as the subsidy amount is reduced from three units to one, but the subsidy rate is set at 15% [4] - The offline market is showing signs of stabilization, with the sales decline narrowing to -2.3% due to the continued benefits of the national subsidy policy [4] - The air conditioning market in 2026 will still face overall pressure from rising raw material prices and shrinking consumer demand, pushing companies to shift from scale expansion to value competition [5]

Core Insights - Sri City in Andhra Pradesh is recognized as the "Cooling City" of India, contributing nearly 40% of the country's air conditioner manufacturing [3] - Carrier Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Ltd plans to invest approximately Rs 1,000 crore in a new manufacturing unit at Sri City, which may increase the region's share in AC manufacturing to 60% by 2027 and 70% by 2028 [4] Company Developments - Carrier's new facility will occupy 39 acres and will focus on manufacturing commercial and industrial air conditioners, excluding room ACs [9] - The investment from Carrier is part of a larger trend, with Sri City attracting Rs 12,000 crore in investments from 10 major AC manufacturers, creating 25,000 jobs [10] - The swift timeline of just eight months from Carrier's initial visit to project finalization highlights the efficiency of Andhra Pradesh's business environment [8] Industry Context - Sri City currently hosts 10 HVAC manufacturers and around 32 suppliers, enhancing its ecosystem for air conditioning production [6] - The presence of nearby ports like Chennai, Krishnapatnam, and Ennore facilitates better raw material inflow and export opportunities for manufacturers [11] - The region is becoming increasingly attractive for AC manufacturers due to reduced transportation costs and improved access to the South Indian market [13] Future Outlook - With ongoing expansions from companies like LG Electronics and Daikin, the competitive landscape in Sri City is expected to strengthen, fostering a globally competitive industrial ecosystem [14]

Group 1 - The core theme of the consumption promotion in Xing'an League is "Warm Spring on the Ridge, Beneficial Purchase in Xing'an," featuring enhanced policy subsidies and integration of commerce, culture, and tourism [1] - A total of 8.5 million yuan in consumption vouchers will be distributed across the region, with trade-in subsidies for automobiles and home appliances reaching up to 20,000 yuan [1] - The new trade-in policy, effective from January 1, 2026, will cover 12 categories of home appliances and digital products, offering a 15% subsidy on the selling price for energy-efficient appliances and digital products [1] Group 2 - The new spring lantern festival at the Guiliuhe Ecological Park in Keyou Qianqi will run until March 4, featuring over 40 unique lantern displays and a variety of cultural performances [3] - The second annual New Year goods festival in Xing'an League, which started on February 4, attracted over 150 merchants and showcased more than 1,000 specialty products, achieving sales of 500,000 yuan on the first day [3] - Online live-streaming sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com are promoting local agricultural products nationwide as part of the "Xing'an Cloud New Year Goods Festival" [3]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province is set to further optimize its consumer goods trade-in policy by 2026, aiming to boost consumption and economic development [1] Group 1: Investment and Economic Impact - In 2025, Qinghai Province invested a total of 1.69 billion yuan, benefiting over 1.52 million people and stimulating consumption worth 19.7 billion yuan [1] - The province achieved significant results in vehicle and appliance upgrades, with 92,000 new cars, 496,000 home appliances, 615,000 digital products, and 31,900 home decor items purchased through the trade-in program [1] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The central government will continue to allocate long-term special treasury bond funds to support the trade-in policy, with local governments providing matching funds [1] - In 2026, Qinghai will implement further optimizations to the trade-in policies for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [1] Group 3: Specific Subsidy Standards - The subsidy for old car trade-ins will be adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price, with new energy vehicles receiving 12% of the price (up to 20,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [2] - For home appliances, consumers will receive a 15% subsidy on qualifying products, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan [2] - The subsidy for digital products will also be set at 15% for items priced under 6,000 yuan, with a maximum of 500 yuan [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Appliances Sector - **Outlook**: The major appliance sector is entering a post-subsidy downcycle in H225-27, with expectations of subdued domestic demand in H126 due to fading subsidy benefits. However, demand may stabilize in H226 and potentially turn around in 2027 [2][11]. Core Insights - **Domestic Demand**: Anticipated declines in shipments for air conditioners (AC), washing machines (WM), refrigerators, and range hoods by 5%, 2%, 4%, and 5% YoY respectively in 2026, as trade-in subsidies continue to impact the market [2]. - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Expected to remain stable in 2026, with potential product mix downgrades offset by industry-wide price hikes led by Midea due to rising copper prices [2][36]. - **Consumer Survey Findings**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicated limited upside in white goods demand for 2026, with a median household budget for home appliances expected to drop by 11% YoY, particularly in tier-1 cities where the decline is projected at 27% [3][27]. Export Challenges and Opportunities - **Exports**: Global white goods demand is projected to grow by 1.5% YoY in 2026, but Chinese exports of AC, WM, and refrigerators are expected to decline by 4.0%, 0.2%, and 4.3% YoY respectively. Exports to Europe and the US are likely to remain muted due to US tariffs and capacity relocation [4][16]. - **Emerging Markets**: There is potential for demand growth in emerging markets and the US, particularly with lower interest rates [4][16]. Stock Recommendations - **Buy Ratings**: Midea, Haier, Hisense, and Roborock are recommended for their potential to consolidate market share and grow margins through price hikes. Midea is favored for its overseas demand exposure, Haier for its margin upside from US rate cuts, and Roborock as a beneficiary of trade-in subsidies [5][10]. - **Sell Rating**: Gree is viewed as vulnerable to domestic headwinds [5]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: Adjustments made due to lower-than-expected domestic appliance sales and rising raw material prices, particularly copper. Price targets for major appliance companies have been revised upwards as valuations are rolled forward to 2027 [7][8]. Consumer Behavior Insights - **Purchase Intentions**: The survey revealed a decline in purchase intentions across most categories, with notable increases for TVs and cleaning appliances. The largest declines were seen in AC and WM, likely due to prior subsidy usage [3][27]. - **RVC Market**: Purchase intentions for leading robot vacuum cleaner brands (Ecovacs, Roborock, Dreame) have increased, indicating a shift towards these products due to improved affordability and consumer education [3][44]. Additional Insights - **Subsidy Impact**: The impact of trade-in subsidies has been significant, with 128 million units purchased in 2025. However, the demand pull-forward effect suggests limited upside for 2026 [19][26]. - **Market Trends**: The importance of smart features and integration with smart home platforms is rising among consumers when selecting RVCs, indicating a trend towards more technologically advanced products [45]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China consumer appliances sector, along with consumer behavior trends and stock recommendations.

Core Viewpoint - Changhong Meiling is focusing on expanding its overseas air conditioning and refrigerator businesses by enhancing its product matrix and implementing an agile follow-up strategy to seize market opportunities in regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe [1] Group 1: Air Conditioning Business - The company is improving its product matrix and platform development to capture market opportunities [1] - It is implementing an agile follow-up strategy to gain market share [1] - Key regions for expansion include Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe, with a focus on deepening relationships with core major clients [1] Group 2: Brand Strategy - The company adheres to a brand-first strategy, focusing on its home market to ensure the continuous growth of its own brand [1] - It aims to build a full-cycle service system to support its overseas operations [1] Group 3: Refrigerator Business - In the overseas refrigerator market, the company is promoting trend-driven products such as wind cooling, variable frequency, multi-door, and energy-saving models [1] - There is an accelerated expansion into the Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets to scale up its overseas self-owned brand business [1] - The goal is to create a brand image with international influence [1]

Summary of Conference Call on China Consumer Appliances Sector Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Appliances - **Focus**: Transition from copper to aluminum in air conditioning (AC) units, particularly in heat exchangers [2][8] Key Points and Arguments Technological Shift to Aluminum - **Popularity**: The use of aluminum in ACs has gained traction due to a recent rally in copper prices [2] - **Standardization**: In December 2025, the Chinese Association of Refrigeration issued a standard for aluminum heat exchangers, and major manufacturers signed a convention to promote consumer acceptance [2][8] Cost Savings Potential - **Copper Content Breakdown**: A typical 1.5HP household AC contains approximately 6-7 kg of copper, with the heat exchanger accounting for 53% of this [3][10] - **Replacement Potential**: It is estimated that 50-60% of copper in ACs can be replaced by aluminum, primarily in heat exchangers [3][12] - **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**: Copper constitutes 25-29% of an AC's COGS, and switching to aluminum could reduce COGS by 40%, leading to overall savings of 5-7% [3][12] Adoption Challenges in China - **Efficiency Concerns**: Aluminum has lower heat conductivity than copper, which may lead to increased electricity consumption [4][14] - **Corrosion Resistance**: Aluminum is less resistant to corrosion, posing a higher risk of leakage, especially in humid regions [4][14] - **Welding Difficulties**: The complexity of welding aluminum increases post-sales costs [4][14] - **Consumer Education**: There is a need for consumer education regarding the reliability of aluminum compared to copper [4][14] Gross Margin (GM) Impact - **Projected COGS Growth**: Blended AC COGS is expected to grow by 4% in 4Q25 and 1Q26, and by 5% in 2Q26, which could lower GM by 3-4% YoY [5][15] - **Mitigation Strategies**: Recent price hikes in ACs may help mitigate the cost pressures if raw material prices remain stable [5][15] Sector Implications - **Long-term Outlook**: While the shift to aluminum could benefit the industry's GM in the long run, immediate adoption is not expected due to existing challenges [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Favorable outlook on industry leaders like Midea and Haier due to their ability to manage cost pressures and optimize operations [6] Additional Insights - **Product Launches**: Wanbao launched an AC made from a zinc-aluminum alloy, priced at Rmb999, which is over 20% cheaper than copper-based models [8] - **Market Dynamics**: The shift to aluminum has been more successful in countries like Japan and the US, where consumer acceptance is higher [11] Conclusion The transition from copper to aluminum in the Chinese AC market presents both opportunities for cost savings and challenges related to efficiency and consumer acceptance. The industry's leaders are well-positioned to navigate these changes, but significant hurdles remain before widespread adoption can occur.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Consumer Appliances Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Consumer Appliances Sector**, particularly the **2026 home appliances trade-in subsidies** announced by the **National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)** and the **Ministry of Finance** on December 30, 2025 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Announcement Timing**: The release of the 2026 subsidy policies was slightly ahead of expectations, as the 2025 version was released on January 8, 2025. The overall content aligns with market expectations, benefiting white goods and smart home products [2][3]. 2. **Narrowed Subsidy Scope**: The 2026 subsidies will cover only **6 categories**: fridge, washing machine, TV, air conditioner, PC, and water heater. This is a reduction from the 12 categories in 2025, which included major kitchen appliances and small appliances like range hoods and microwaves. This change may negatively impact companies focused on major and small appliances [3][4]. 3. **Subsidy Structure Changes**: - The subsidy for energy-efficient products will be **15% of the sales price**, with a cap of **Rmb1,500** per category per consumer. This is a decrease from the previous **20%** for Level 1 energy-efficient products and **15%** for Level 2, with a cap of **Rmb2,000** [4]. 4. **Encouragement for Local Governments**: The policy explicitly encourages local governments to subsidize smart home products, including age-adaptive home products. Local governments will have the discretion to set specific categories and standards [5]. 5. **Estimated Total Subsidy Amount**: The total amount for the 2026 subsidies has not been officially released, but estimates suggest it could be around **Rmb250 billion**, slightly lower than the **Rmb300 billion** in 2025. This estimate is based on a recent fund of **Rmb62.5 billion** issued to support consumer goods trade-in [5]. Sector Implications - The focus on white goods is expected to benefit industry leaders such as **Midea** and **Haier**. The support for smart home products may also favor companies like **Roborock** and **Ecovacs**. However, sales for major appliances (e.g., **Robam**) and small appliances (e.g., **Supor**, **Joyoung**) may face challenges due to a high sales base [6]. Risks Identified 1. **Home Appliances Sector Risks**: - Impact of the **China property market** on demand - Elevated raw material prices - Global supply chain constraints affecting exports [9]. 2. **Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Sector Risks**: - Intensifying market competition - Raw material price increases - Foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations [10]. 3. **Small Appliances Sector Risks**: - Economic downturn leading to weak consumption - Price competition - Rising raw material costs eroding profitability [10]. Additional Information - The report was prepared by **UBS Securities Asia Limited**, with analysts including **Rennie Pan**, **Christine Peng**, and **Molly Huang** [7]. - The document includes disclaimers regarding the potential conflicts of interest and the nature of the research provided [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications from the conference call regarding the China Consumer Appliances Sector and the upcoming subsidy policies for 2026.