【CNMO科技消息】进入2026年，空调市场在经历了2025年"价跌量涨"的调整后，迎来新的发展节奏。 奥维云网数据显示，2025年空调零售量同比增长4.7%，但零售额微降0.4%，全年走势前高后低。 V今年市场开局面临新挑战。受新一轮国补政策落地及春节假期位于2月中旬等因素影响，行业排产出 现季节性错位，2月排产计划同比下滑两位数。其中内销排产603万台，同比下降13.8%；出口排产751 万台，下降12.7%。 但从元春整体周期看，空调企业展现出积极姿态。1-2月内销排产同比上涨8.6%，反映出产业端对国内 市场的乐观预期。业内人士分析，随着新一轮国补政策全国铺开，有望激活2025年四季度被压制的消费 需求。同时，上游铜价持续攀升，也促使企业通过前置排产锁定利润、抢占市场先机。 终端市场呈现企稳回暖态势。开年线上线下销售额同比降幅持续收窄，销售均价稳步上行。值得关注的 是，本轮国补政策更加聚焦，虽将空调品类补贴数量从3台缩减至1台，且限定一级能效产品，但15%的 补贴幅度更加精准地引导资源向高能效、高技术含量的产品集中。监测数据显示，线下市场受国补政策 延续利好影响，销售额跌幅已收窄至-2.3%，逐步走出 ...

Firm to invest Rs 1,000 cr to set up AC mfg unitKey PointsCarrier Air Conditioning and Refrigeration signed a deal to invest around Rs 1,000 crore for a new manufacturing unit at Sri City.Sri City has a total of 10 HVAC manufacturers and around 32 suppliers in its ecosystem.Carrier took just eight months from their first visit to the land handover and project finalisationThe new Carrier facility will come up on 39 acres at Sri CitySo far, Sri City has seen investments to the tune of Rs 12,000 crore from 10 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the consumption promotion in Xing'an League is "Warm Spring on the Ridge, Beneficial Purchase in Xing'an," featuring enhanced policy subsidies and integration of commerce, culture, and tourism [1] - A total of 8.5 million yuan in consumption vouchers will be distributed across the region, with trade-in subsidies for automobiles and home appliances reaching up to 20,000 yuan [1] - The new trade-in policy, effective from January 1, 2026, will cover 12 categories of home appliances and digital products, offering a 15% subsidy on the selling price for energy-efficient appliances and digital products [1] Group 2 - The new spring lantern festival at the Guiliuhe Ecological Park in Keyou Qianqi will run until March 4, featuring over 40 unique lantern displays and a variety of cultural performances [3] - The second annual New Year goods festival in Xing'an League, which started on February 4, attracted over 150 merchants and showcased more than 1,000 specialty products, achieving sales of 500,000 yuan on the first day [3] - Online live-streaming sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com are promoting local agricultural products nationwide as part of the "Xing'an Cloud New Year Goods Festival" [3]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province is set to further optimize its consumer goods trade-in policy by 2026, aiming to boost consumption and economic development [1] Group 1: Investment and Economic Impact - In 2025, Qinghai Province invested a total of 1.69 billion yuan, benefiting over 1.52 million people and stimulating consumption worth 19.7 billion yuan [1] - The province achieved significant results in vehicle and appliance upgrades, with 92,000 new cars, 496,000 home appliances, 615,000 digital products, and 31,900 home decor items purchased through the trade-in program [1] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The central government will continue to allocate long-term special treasury bond funds to support the trade-in policy, with local governments providing matching funds [1] - In 2026, Qinghai will implement further optimizations to the trade-in policies for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [1] Group 3: Specific Subsidy Standards - The subsidy for old car trade-ins will be adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price, with new energy vehicles receiving 12% of the price (up to 20,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [2] - For home appliances, consumers will receive a 15% subsidy on qualifying products, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan [2] - The subsidy for digital products will also be set at 15% for items priced under 6,000 yuan, with a maximum of 500 yuan [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Appliances Sector - **Outlook**: The major appliance sector is entering a post-subsidy downcycle in H225-27, with expectations of subdued domestic demand in H126 due to fading subsidy benefits. However, demand may stabilize in H226 and potentially turn around in 2027 [2][11]. Core Insights - **Domestic Demand**: Anticipated declines in shipments for air conditioners (AC), washing machines (WM), refrigerators, and range hoods by 5%, 2%, 4%, and 5% YoY respectively in 2026, as trade-in subsidies continue to impact the market [2]. - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Expected to remain stable in 2026, with potential product mix downgrades offset by industry-wide price hikes led by Midea due to rising copper prices [2][36]. - **Consumer Survey Findings**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicated limited upside in white goods demand for 2026, with a median household budget for home appliances expected to drop by 11% YoY, particularly in tier-1 cities where the decline is projected at 27% [3][27]. Export Challenges and Opportunities - **Exports**: Global white goods demand is projected to grow by 1.5% YoY in 2026, but Chinese exports of AC, WM, and refrigerators are expected to decline by 4.0%, 0.2%, and 4.3% YoY respectively. Exports to Europe and the US are likely to remain muted due to US tariffs and capacity relocation [4][16]. - **Emerging Markets**: There is potential for demand growth in emerging markets and the US, particularly with lower interest rates [4][16]. Stock Recommendations - **Buy Ratings**: Midea, Haier, Hisense, and Roborock are recommended for their potential to consolidate market share and grow margins through price hikes. Midea is favored for its overseas demand exposure, Haier for its margin upside from US rate cuts, and Roborock as a beneficiary of trade-in subsidies [5][10]. - **Sell Rating**: Gree is viewed as vulnerable to domestic headwinds [5]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: Adjustments made due to lower-than-expected domestic appliance sales and rising raw material prices, particularly copper. Price targets for major appliance companies have been revised upwards as valuations are rolled forward to 2027 [7][8]. Consumer Behavior Insights - **Purchase Intentions**: The survey revealed a decline in purchase intentions across most categories, with notable increases for TVs and cleaning appliances. The largest declines were seen in AC and WM, likely due to prior subsidy usage [3][27]. - **RVC Market**: Purchase intentions for leading robot vacuum cleaner brands (Ecovacs, Roborock, Dreame) have increased, indicating a shift towards these products due to improved affordability and consumer education [3][44]. Additional Insights - **Subsidy Impact**: The impact of trade-in subsidies has been significant, with 128 million units purchased in 2025. However, the demand pull-forward effect suggests limited upside for 2026 [19][26]. - **Market Trends**: The importance of smart features and integration with smart home platforms is rising among consumers when selecting RVCs, indicating a trend towards more technologically advanced products [45]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China consumer appliances sector, along with consumer behavior trends and stock recommendations.

Core Viewpoint - Changhong Meiling is focusing on expanding its overseas air conditioning and refrigerator businesses by enhancing its product matrix and implementing an agile follow-up strategy to seize market opportunities in regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe [1] Group 1: Air Conditioning Business - The company is improving its product matrix and platform development to capture market opportunities [1] - It is implementing an agile follow-up strategy to gain market share [1] - Key regions for expansion include Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe, with a focus on deepening relationships with core major clients [1] Group 2: Brand Strategy - The company adheres to a brand-first strategy, focusing on its home market to ensure the continuous growth of its own brand [1] - It aims to build a full-cycle service system to support its overseas operations [1] Group 3: Refrigerator Business - In the overseas refrigerator market, the company is promoting trend-driven products such as wind cooling, variable frequency, multi-door, and energy-saving models [1] - There is an accelerated expansion into the Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets to scale up its overseas self-owned brand business [1] - The goal is to create a brand image with international influence [1]

Summary of Conference Call on China Consumer Appliances Sector Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Appliances - **Focus**: Transition from copper to aluminum in air conditioning (AC) units, particularly in heat exchangers [2][8] Key Points and Arguments Technological Shift to Aluminum - **Popularity**: The use of aluminum in ACs has gained traction due to a recent rally in copper prices [2] - **Standardization**: In December 2025, the Chinese Association of Refrigeration issued a standard for aluminum heat exchangers, and major manufacturers signed a convention to promote consumer acceptance [2][8] Cost Savings Potential - **Copper Content Breakdown**: A typical 1.5HP household AC contains approximately 6-7 kg of copper, with the heat exchanger accounting for 53% of this [3][10] - **Replacement Potential**: It is estimated that 50-60% of copper in ACs can be replaced by aluminum, primarily in heat exchangers [3][12] - **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**: Copper constitutes 25-29% of an AC's COGS, and switching to aluminum could reduce COGS by 40%, leading to overall savings of 5-7% [3][12] Adoption Challenges in China - **Efficiency Concerns**: Aluminum has lower heat conductivity than copper, which may lead to increased electricity consumption [4][14] - **Corrosion Resistance**: Aluminum is less resistant to corrosion, posing a higher risk of leakage, especially in humid regions [4][14] - **Welding Difficulties**: The complexity of welding aluminum increases post-sales costs [4][14] - **Consumer Education**: There is a need for consumer education regarding the reliability of aluminum compared to copper [4][14] Gross Margin (GM) Impact - **Projected COGS Growth**: Blended AC COGS is expected to grow by 4% in 4Q25 and 1Q26, and by 5% in 2Q26, which could lower GM by 3-4% YoY [5][15] - **Mitigation Strategies**: Recent price hikes in ACs may help mitigate the cost pressures if raw material prices remain stable [5][15] Sector Implications - **Long-term Outlook**: While the shift to aluminum could benefit the industry's GM in the long run, immediate adoption is not expected due to existing challenges [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Favorable outlook on industry leaders like Midea and Haier due to their ability to manage cost pressures and optimize operations [6] Additional Insights - **Product Launches**: Wanbao launched an AC made from a zinc-aluminum alloy, priced at Rmb999, which is over 20% cheaper than copper-based models [8] - **Market Dynamics**: The shift to aluminum has been more successful in countries like Japan and the US, where consumer acceptance is higher [11] Conclusion The transition from copper to aluminum in the Chinese AC market presents both opportunities for cost savings and challenges related to efficiency and consumer acceptance. The industry's leaders are well-positioned to navigate these changes, but significant hurdles remain before widespread adoption can occur.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Consumer Appliances Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Consumer Appliances Sector**, particularly the **2026 home appliances trade-in subsidies** announced by the **National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)** and the **Ministry of Finance** on December 30, 2025 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Announcement Timing**: The release of the 2026 subsidy policies was slightly ahead of expectations, as the 2025 version was released on January 8, 2025. The overall content aligns with market expectations, benefiting white goods and smart home products [2][3]. 2. **Narrowed Subsidy Scope**: The 2026 subsidies will cover only **6 categories**: fridge, washing machine, TV, air conditioner, PC, and water heater. This is a reduction from the 12 categories in 2025, which included major kitchen appliances and small appliances like range hoods and microwaves. This change may negatively impact companies focused on major and small appliances [3][4]. 3. **Subsidy Structure Changes**: - The subsidy for energy-efficient products will be **15% of the sales price**, with a cap of **Rmb1,500** per category per consumer. This is a decrease from the previous **20%** for Level 1 energy-efficient products and **15%** for Level 2, with a cap of **Rmb2,000** [4]. 4. **Encouragement for Local Governments**: The policy explicitly encourages local governments to subsidize smart home products, including age-adaptive home products. Local governments will have the discretion to set specific categories and standards [5]. 5. **Estimated Total Subsidy Amount**: The total amount for the 2026 subsidies has not been officially released, but estimates suggest it could be around **Rmb250 billion**, slightly lower than the **Rmb300 billion** in 2025. This estimate is based on a recent fund of **Rmb62.5 billion** issued to support consumer goods trade-in [5]. Sector Implications - The focus on white goods is expected to benefit industry leaders such as **Midea** and **Haier**. The support for smart home products may also favor companies like **Roborock** and **Ecovacs**. However, sales for major appliances (e.g., **Robam**) and small appliances (e.g., **Supor**, **Joyoung**) may face challenges due to a high sales base [6]. Risks Identified 1. **Home Appliances Sector Risks**: - Impact of the **China property market** on demand - Elevated raw material prices - Global supply chain constraints affecting exports [9]. 2. **Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Sector Risks**: - Intensifying market competition - Raw material price increases - Foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations [10]. 3. **Small Appliances Sector Risks**: - Economic downturn leading to weak consumption - Price competition - Rising raw material costs eroding profitability [10]. Additional Information - The report was prepared by **UBS Securities Asia Limited**, with analysts including **Rennie Pan**, **Christine Peng**, and **Molly Huang** [7]. - The document includes disclaimers regarding the potential conflicts of interest and the nature of the research provided [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications from the conference call regarding the China Consumer Appliances Sector and the upcoming subsidy policies for 2026.

Group 1: Core Points - The Zhejiang province will implement a vehicle trade-in program from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [1][25] - The program aims to encourage consumers to replace old vehicles with new ones, providing subsidies for eligible purchases [3][18] Group 2: Subsidy Details - For scrapping and updating vehicles, personal consumers can receive a subsidy of 12% of the vehicle price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [7][9][19] - The eligibility for the subsidy requires that the old vehicle must be registered in the applicant's name before January 8, 2025, and the new vehicle must be purchased within the program period [13][21] Group 3: Application Process - Consumers can apply for subsidies through platforms like Alipay and WeChat by searching for the "Zhejiang Auto Trade-in" mini-program [17][22] - Required documents for application include the scrapping certificate, vehicle deregistration certificate, sales invoice, and vehicle registration certificate, all of which must be obtained after January 1, 2026 [13][21] Group 4: Additional Consumer Products - The program also includes subsidies for household appliances such as televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a subsidy of 15% of the actual sales price and a maximum of 1,500 yuan per item [30][31] - Consumers can participate in both online and offline activities to claim these subsidies, with specific guidelines for each method [32][43]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing will implement a subsidy program for the replacement of old household appliances and digital products starting January 1, 2026, aimed at encouraging consumer spending in these sectors [1]. Subsidy Details - The subsidy will apply to six categories of household appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, water heaters, and computers) and four categories of digital products (mobile phones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses) [1][10]. - The subsidy amount will be 15% of the final sales price after discounts, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan for household appliances and 500 yuan for digital products per item [1][10]. Qualification Process - Consumers can obtain subsidy qualifications through the "Jingtong" mini-program starting at 8 AM daily, with qualifications valid for the month of issuance [1][4]. - The program allows for both online and offline redemption, with specific platforms and stores designated for each [4][12][13]. Redemption Guidelines - For online purchases, consumers must complete the qualification process in the mini-program and then use the generated code on designated e-commerce platforms [6][7]. - For offline purchases, consumers must show the qualification QR code to participating retailers for verification [7]. Additional Information - The program includes a mechanism for reissuing qualifications if they expire without use, allowing consumers to reapply [1][4][16]. - The initiative is part of a broader effort to stimulate economic activity in the consumer electronics sector [1].