25 年全球 TV 出货面积略增，26 年初面板价格小幅上行 板块景气判断：白色家电-持续承压、黑色家电-持续承压、厨卫电器-底部企稳、扫地机-持续承压。 投资建议 内销方面，龙头品牌凭借一体化优势、强大的行业定价权及深厚的蓄水池有望实现稳健的增长。外销方面，美国进入 降息周期，地产对家电的拉动效果有望增强，欧洲消费有望保持缓慢修复的态势，新兴市场在渗透率提升、人口红利 逻辑下需求延续性较强，我国企业在研产销系统本土化建设逐步完善，OBM 出海空间广阔，推荐 TCL 电子、海信视像、 美的集团、海尔智家。 风险提示 内外需修复不及预期、原材料价格及汇率等外部因素波动、海运及关税环境变化以及行业竞争加剧，均可能对板块业 绩表现带来不利影响。 据 AVC Revo，2025 年全球 TV 市场在美国关税政策及 2024 年体育赛事高基数影响下，上半年承压、下半年修复，全 年出货量同比微降 0.1%，整体维持平台期。但结构端持续优化，出货面积同比增长 1.6%，OLED TV 出货同比增长 6.9%， 平均尺寸提升至 53.6 英寸，行业由"规模驱动"逐步转向"价值驱动"。品牌层面，三星出货 35.3M，同比-1. ...

Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY) is entering a stretch where short-term trading upside may be easier to find than durable gains, according to JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers, who sees tax stimulus and short covering as potential near-term supports but believes "sellers higher," tougher comparisons from lapping the Switch 2 launch and Windows 10 replacement cycle, and lower forward earnings expectations will likely cap sustained upside.Valuation Reset After DowngradeReflecting that view, Horvers downgrade ...

Core Viewpoint - The television industry is facing rising costs due to increases in memory, panel, and precious metal prices, leading to a downward revision of expected shipment volumes for 2026, now projected to decrease by 0.6% to approximately 194.81 million units [2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From early 2025, uncertainty in international conditions prompted TV brands to stock up in advance, but inventory adjustments in the second quarter led to a disappointing third-quarter shipment, which fell below 50 million units for the first time [5]. - Despite pressures to meet annual shipment targets in the fourth quarter and preemptive stocking due to rising memory prices, global TV shipments are still expected to decline by 0.8% in 2025, reaching nearly 196.2 million units [5]. - In the first half of 2026, promotional events like the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup are expected to boost shipments by 2% year-on-year to 46.51 million units, although the second half may face challenges [5]. Group 2: Cost Analysis - Panels account for approximately 40-50% of the total cost of a TV, and prices have begun to rise as of January 2026. The supply of memory for TVs is being squeezed by demand from HBM and server applications, leading to price increases starting in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The contract price for 4GB DDR4 memory, commonly used in 4K TVs, has increased over fourfold in the past year, with expectations of a further increase of over 60% in the first quarter of 2026 [5][6]. - The share of DRAM in the bill of materials (BOM) cost for TVs has risen from 2.5-3% to 6-7% due to recent price adjustments, putting pressure on brand profitability, particularly for smaller players with fewer resources [6]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - In 2026, favorable subsidy policies in the Chinese market will benefit Mini LED models, with major brands showcasing RGB TV technology at CES 2026 and targeting more affordable sizes between 55-75 inches [6]. - TrendForce has revised its forecast for Mini LED TV penetration in 2026 to 10%, with shipments expected to approach 20 million units. TCL is positioned to lead the Mini LED TV market, potentially surpassing a 30% market share [6].

Core Viewpoint - La Caisse intends to sell nearly 11% of its shares in Cogeco Communications at a gross price of $67.45 per share, generating approximately $229 million in gross proceeds [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The sale of shares is part of La Caisse's periodic portfolio rebalancing [2]. - The transaction will result in La Caisse remaining the largest holder of subordinate shares in Cogeco Communications, which serves 1.6 million customers in Canada and the United States [2]. Group 2: Historical Investment and Support - La Caisse has been a supporter of Cogeco Communications since 2013, having invested in various transactions, including a $350 million share purchase in 2023 [3]. - Initial investment included a $50 million loan in 2013 and a contribution of USD 315 million for acquiring MetroCast cable systems in 2017 [3]. Group 3: La Caisse Overview - La Caisse, formerly known as CDPQ, has a dual mandate to generate long-term returns for its depositors and contribute to Québec's economic development [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, La Caisse's net assets totaled CAD 496 billion, indicating its significant presence in major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and private credit [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between HKD 23.3 billion and HKD 25.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 45%-60% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The lower limit of the profit forecast aligns with the company's stock incentive assessment target, indicating that the 2025 performance exceeds market expectations [1] - Based on the strong performance in 2025, the likelihood of achieving the assessment target of HKD 28.1 billion in 2026 is considered high [1] - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to HKD 24.7 billion, HKD 28.8 billion, and HKD 34.5 billion respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 11.1x, 9.5x, and 8.0x [2] Group 2: Business Development - The company's large-size display business continues to maintain a leading market position, with significant progress in the mid-to-high-end segment, achieving a global TV shipment of 27.51 million units from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1] - The global market share for the company reached 14.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The Mini LED shipments have seen exponential growth in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to structural optimization both domestically and internationally [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company is enhancing its global supply chain and channel advantages, improving its ability to respond to global operational risks [1] - There is a continuous improvement in AI digital capabilities, leading to increased operational efficiency and a reduction in expense ratios, which supports steady performance release [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendation - The company is recognized as a leading player in the global TV industry, with ongoing enhancements in mid-to-high-end and global operational capabilities driving steady market share expansion [2] - The company also solidifies growth momentum in areas outside its main business, such as photovoltaics, comprehensive marketing, and internet services [2] - The company possesses both dividend attributes and technological potential, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the positive earnings announcement exceeding expectations [2]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province is set to further optimize its consumer goods trade-in policy by 2026, aiming to boost consumption and economic development [1] Group 1: Investment and Economic Impact - In 2025, Qinghai Province invested a total of 1.69 billion yuan, benefiting over 1.52 million people and stimulating consumption worth 19.7 billion yuan [1] - The province achieved significant results in vehicle and appliance upgrades, with 92,000 new cars, 496,000 home appliances, 615,000 digital products, and 31,900 home decor items purchased through the trade-in program [1] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The central government will continue to allocate long-term special treasury bond funds to support the trade-in policy, with local governments providing matching funds [1] - In 2026, Qinghai will implement further optimizations to the trade-in policies for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [1] Group 3: Specific Subsidy Standards - The subsidy for old car trade-ins will be adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price, with new energy vehicles receiving 12% of the price (up to 20,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [2] - For home appliances, consumers will receive a 15% subsidy on qualifying products, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan [2] - The subsidy for digital products will also be set at 15% for items priced under 6,000 yuan, with a maximum of 500 yuan [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Appliances Sector - **Outlook**: The major appliance sector is entering a post-subsidy downcycle in H225-27, with expectations of subdued domestic demand in H126 due to fading subsidy benefits. However, demand may stabilize in H226 and potentially turn around in 2027 [2][11]. Core Insights - **Domestic Demand**: Anticipated declines in shipments for air conditioners (AC), washing machines (WM), refrigerators, and range hoods by 5%, 2%, 4%, and 5% YoY respectively in 2026, as trade-in subsidies continue to impact the market [2]. - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Expected to remain stable in 2026, with potential product mix downgrades offset by industry-wide price hikes led by Midea due to rising copper prices [2][36]. - **Consumer Survey Findings**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicated limited upside in white goods demand for 2026, with a median household budget for home appliances expected to drop by 11% YoY, particularly in tier-1 cities where the decline is projected at 27% [3][27]. Export Challenges and Opportunities - **Exports**: Global white goods demand is projected to grow by 1.5% YoY in 2026, but Chinese exports of AC, WM, and refrigerators are expected to decline by 4.0%, 0.2%, and 4.3% YoY respectively. Exports to Europe and the US are likely to remain muted due to US tariffs and capacity relocation [4][16]. - **Emerging Markets**: There is potential for demand growth in emerging markets and the US, particularly with lower interest rates [4][16]. Stock Recommendations - **Buy Ratings**: Midea, Haier, Hisense, and Roborock are recommended for their potential to consolidate market share and grow margins through price hikes. Midea is favored for its overseas demand exposure, Haier for its margin upside from US rate cuts, and Roborock as a beneficiary of trade-in subsidies [5][10]. - **Sell Rating**: Gree is viewed as vulnerable to domestic headwinds [5]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: Adjustments made due to lower-than-expected domestic appliance sales and rising raw material prices, particularly copper. Price targets for major appliance companies have been revised upwards as valuations are rolled forward to 2027 [7][8]. Consumer Behavior Insights - **Purchase Intentions**: The survey revealed a decline in purchase intentions across most categories, with notable increases for TVs and cleaning appliances. The largest declines were seen in AC and WM, likely due to prior subsidy usage [3][27]. - **RVC Market**: Purchase intentions for leading robot vacuum cleaner brands (Ecovacs, Roborock, Dreame) have increased, indicating a shift towards these products due to improved affordability and consumer education [3][44]. Additional Insights - **Subsidy Impact**: The impact of trade-in subsidies has been significant, with 128 million units purchased in 2025. However, the demand pull-forward effect suggests limited upside for 2026 [19][26]. - **Market Trends**: The importance of smart features and integration with smart home platforms is rising among consumers when selecting RVCs, indicating a trend towards more technologically advanced products [45]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China consumer appliances sector, along with consumer behavior trends and stock recommendations.

Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology Group Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.21 billion to 4.55 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 169% to 191% [1] - The company has demonstrated strong profitability with a significant increase in net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses, projected to be between 2.89 billion and 3.20 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year surge of 869% to 973% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TCL Huaxing has implemented a "leading strategy," achieving operating revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan and net profit surpassing 8 billion yuan, with operating cash flow net exceeding 40 billion yuan, indicating high-quality growth [1] - The company has maintained competitive advantages in large-size products such as TVs and commercial displays, while experiencing rapid growth in the small and medium-size product sectors [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - TCL Technology completed the acquisition of 100% equity in the former LG Display (China) Co., Ltd., enhancing its capacity advantage in the large and medium-size LCD panel market [1] - The company has increased its stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Optoelectronics Semiconductor Display Technology Co., Ltd., effectively improving its net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The expansion of TCL Huaxing's G5.5 generation printed OLED production line and the construction of the world's first high-generation printed OLED production line mark significant steps in the commercialization of next-generation display technologies [1] - In the semiconductor materials sector, TCL Zhonghuan has solidified its leading position in the domestic market, achieving operating revenue exceeding 5.7 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - TCL Zhonghuan is experiencing significant fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry due to oversupply across various segments, but is focusing on product innovation and global strategies to improve profitability [2] - The company’s TV OEM business remains industry-leading, with display manufacturing experiencing rapid growth and enhanced profitability through the expansion into high-value-added product areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology Group expects a year-on-year increase in performance for the fiscal year 2025, focusing on sustainable high-quality development in its core businesses of semiconductor displays, new energy photovoltaics, and semiconductor materials [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with anticipated growth compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has communicated with its auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no discrepancies in the data content as of now [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Performance Changes - TCL Huaxing is implementing a leading strategy, achieving over 100 billion yuan in revenue and exceeding 8 billion yuan in net profit, with operating cash flow exceeding 40 billion yuan, indicating high-quality growth [4]. - The company completed the acquisition of 100% of LG Display (China) Co., Ltd., enhancing its capacity layout for large and medium-sized LCD panels [4]. - TCL Zhonghuan achieved over 5.7 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining its leading position in the domestic semiconductor materials sector [4]. Group 3: Business Operations - The company is experiencing significant fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry but is committed to innovation and global strategies to improve profitability [5]. - The TV OEM business has solidified its industry-leading position, while the display OEM business is growing rapidly, expanding into high-value-added product areas [5]. - Other business segments are performing steadily and continue to contribute to overall revenue [6].

Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 4.21 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 169% to 191% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 4.21 billion and 4.55 billion yuan, compared to 1.564 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating an increase of 169% to 191% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 2.89 billion and 3.2 billion yuan, up from 298 million yuan last year, reflecting a growth of 869% to 973% [2]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.2174 yuan and 0.2350 yuan, compared to 0.0842 yuan per share in the previous year [2]. Business Operations - TCL Huaxing's operating revenue surpassed 100 billion yuan, with net profit exceeding 8 billion yuan and net operating cash flow exceeding 40 billion yuan, indicating high-quality growth [2]. - The company maintains a competitive advantage in large-size products such as TVs and commercial displays, while also experiencing rapid growth in the small and medium-size product sector [2]. - TCL completed the acquisition of 100% of the shares of the former LG Display (China) Co., Ltd., enhancing its capacity layout for large and medium-size LCD panels [2]. - The company also acquired a minority stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Optoelectronics Semiconductor Display Technology Co., Ltd., which is expected to boost the profit attributable to shareholders [2]. - Expansion of the G5.5 generation printed OLED production line and the establishment of the world's first high-generation printed OLED production line are underway, laying the foundation for future display technology upgrades [2]. Industry Position - The panel industry continues to see strong performance, with companies like Zhonghuan leading with over 5.7 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining the top position in domestic shipments [3]. - Miao Jia Technology is expanding its leading advantage, solidifying its position in TV OEM business and experiencing rapid growth in the display and gaming monitor OEM sectors, significantly enhancing profitability [3].