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阿斯麦 ASML:AI Capex加buff,最坏时期已过
3 6 Ke· 2025-10-15 11:46
Core Insights - ASML reported Q3 2025 revenue of €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, but below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][10] - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, slightly above the company's guidance range of 50-52%, supported by an increase in service revenue [1][12] - Net income for the quarter was €2.13 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][16] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was €7.5 billion, with a gross profit of €3.88 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 51.6% [1][12] - The company maintained stable R&D and selling expenses, with net income reaching €2.13 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][16][14] Business Segments - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-on-year, while service revenue increased by 27.3% to €1.96 billion, indicating a shift in revenue composition [1][25][20] - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 66% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue at approximately €2.11 billion and ArFi at €2.89 billion [3][22] Orders and Guidance - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.9 billion, indicating a recovery in customer confidence [3][5] - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, above market expectations of €9.2 billion, signaling a strong demand outlook [2][5] Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China was the largest contributor at 42%, significantly higher than the previously expected 25%, driven by accelerated orders for ArFi equipment [3][27] - Taiwan contributed approximately €2.26 billion, accounting for 30% of total revenue, primarily due to TSMC's strong demand [3][28] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI capital expenditure cycle, with expectations of increased investments from major clients like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [9][10] - The overall sentiment indicates that the "worst period" for ASML is over, with positive developments in the semiconductor industry expected to drive future growth [10][16]
阿斯麦 ASML:火热的英伟达,“暖不热” 清冷的光刻机?
海豚投研· 2025-07-16 09:13
Core Viewpoint - ASML reported strong Q2 2025 results with revenue and gross margin exceeding market expectations, but concerns remain regarding future orders and guidance adjustments [1][7][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was €7.7 billion, a 23.2% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations of €7.5 billion [1]. - Gross margin reached 53.7%, exceeding the company's guidance of 50-52%, driven by an increase in service revenue and lower-than-expected tariff impacts [1]. - Net profit for the quarter was €2.3 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, resulting in a net profit margin of 30% [1][6]. Business Segments - Lithography system revenue was €5.6 billion, up 17.5% year-over-year, while service revenue was €2.1 billion, up 41.4% [1]. - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 91% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue around €2.5 billion and ArFi revenue approximately €2.3 billion [2][3]. Regional Performance - Taiwan was the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 35% of total revenue, approximately €2.7 billion, followed by mainland China at 27%, contributing around €2.1 billion [4]. Order Metrics - Net order intake rose to €5.54 billion, a 41% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating a recovery in customer sentiment [4][7]. - The company’s order performance exceeded market expectations, which were set between €4.5 billion and €4.8 billion [7]. Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, ASML expects revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, below market expectations of €8.2 billion [5][9]. - The full-year revenue guidance was adjusted to approximately €32.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of around 15%, indicating potential revenue decline in Q4 [9][10]. Market Concerns - Despite positive quarterly results, market concerns persist regarding tariff uncertainties, budget constraints from major clients like Samsung and Intel, and potential risks in the Chinese market [10][11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that while ASML remains a leader in the EUV market, short-term challenges could impact stock performance [10].