Workflow
B系列中国合规版
icon
Search documents
英伟达(NVDA):地缘因素扰动,Blackwell持续增长
HTSC· 2025-08-29 08:21
Investment Rating - The investment rating for NVIDIA is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $210.00 [1]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's revenue for FY26Q2 reached $46.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%, slightly above the expected $46.5 billion [6]. - The company reported a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.05, exceeding the expected $1.02, while the Non-GAAP gross margin was 72.7%, down from 73.5% in the previous quarter [6]. - The guidance for Q3 revenue is set at $54 billion, which is conservative and in line with expectations [6]. - Data center revenue was $41.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56% but slightly below the expected $41.4 billion [6]. - Gaming revenue surged to $4.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, surpassing the expected $3.9 billion [6]. - The automotive and robotics business grew by 69% year-on-year, with new products like the Jetson Thor module supporting complex AI model inference [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E are $130.5 billion, $225.0 billion, $287.4 billion, and $329.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 114.2%, 72.4%, 27.8%, and 14.6% [4]. - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are $72.9 billion, $113.6 billion, $150.7 billion, and $173.0 billion, with growth rates of 144.9%, 55.9%, 32.7%, and 14.8% respectively [4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2026E is projected at $4.86, with a PE ratio of 36.98 [4]. Market Dynamics - The Blackwell architecture continues to show growth, with a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase to approximately $31.6 billion, accounting for 77% of data center revenue [7]. - The geopolitical situation has impacted H20 shipments to China, but NVIDIA has managed to sell approximately $650 million worth of H20 to customers outside China [7]. - The company anticipates that cloud vendors' capital expenditures will reach $600 billion in 2025, supporting data center performance [7]. Competitive Landscape - AMD's recent launch of the MI350/MI400 series is expected to pose competitive pressure on NVIDIA [9]. - Despite this, NVIDIA is recognized as a leader in AI chips, justifying a premium valuation with a target PE of 33x for FY27E [9].