开源证券近日发布基础化工行业点评报告：据隆众资讯数据，截至11月19日，中国一代、二代生物柴油 FOB价格分别为1,165、1,900美元/吨，分别较2025年年初+11%、+24%。2025年以来，受终端需求增长 带动，生物柴油价格稳步增长。 RED III法案取消UCO双倍降碳政策，生柴需求有望增加 2026年欧盟将逐步执行RED III法案，其较RED II提高了2030年降碳目标，将可再生能源消费占比目标 从32%提高到至少42.5%；交通领域可再生能源占比目标从14%提高至29%；取消对UCO为原料生产生 物柴油双倍降碳的政策。换言之，2026年开始欧盟提高碳排放目标，对生物柴油，尤其是二代生物柴油 需求增加。同时取消UCO双倍降碳政策，生物柴油以及UCO的需求量将接近翻倍的增长。据USDA数据 及我们测算，2025年预计欧盟以UCO为原料生产的生物柴油需求量为374万吨，RED III法案落地后需求 量或将至少再增加400万吨。 受益标的：卓越新能、海新能科、嘉澳环保、山高环能等。 风险提示：政策推进不及预期、原材料价格大幅上涨、技术进步不及预期等。（开源证券 金益腾,宋梓 荣,李思佳） 以下为研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights the increasing demand for biodiesel in China and globally, driven by terminal demand growth and regulatory changes, particularly the implementation of the RED III directive in the EU starting in 2026 [1][4]. Domestic Market Developments - The first domestic B5 biodiesel injection for internal trade was completed on November 20, marking a significant step in the use of biodiesel in domestic shipping [2][3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's recent policy supports the blending of domestic biodiesel with marine fuel oil, which is expected to enhance the domestic biodiesel market [2]. International Market Trends - The "IMO net-zero framework" is anticipated to increase the demand for biodiesel, with projections indicating that Singapore's marine fuel injection could require millions of tons of biodiesel by 2030 [3]. - China's bonded marine fuel injection is expected to reach 1,988 million tons in 2024, with a potential increase of nearly 400 million tons in biodiesel demand if 20% biodiesel is blended [3]. Regulatory Changes in the EU - The RED III directive will raise the renewable energy consumption target in the EU from 32% to at least 42.5% by 2030, significantly increasing the demand for biodiesel, especially second-generation biodiesel [4]. - The removal of the double carbon reduction policy for used cooking oil (UCO) is expected to nearly double the demand for biodiesel and UCO in the EU [4]. Beneficiary Companies - Companies likely to benefit from these trends include Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH), Haineng Technology (300072.SZ), Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822.SZ), and Shanggou Environmental Energy (000803.SZ) [5].

数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生物柴油供需持续偏紧,坚定看好产 业景气上行趋势—行业点评报告》 -2025.11.20 《"反内卷"为盾，需求为矛，化工有 望迎来新一轮景气周期—行业投资策 略》-2025.11.18 《有机硅、聚酯、己内酰胺反内卷持 续推进，硫磷、电新材料产业链价格 延续上涨—行业周报》-2025.11.16 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 国内首单内贸 B5 生柴加注，生物船燃需求前景可期 ——行业点评报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 宋梓荣（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | 生物船燃加注增加及欧盟 RED ...