行业研究丨点评报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 生态环境法典草案即将提请审议，关注法治 守护绿水青山下的环保机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 《中华人民共和国生态环境法典（草案）》将于 2026 年 3 月十四届全国人大四次会议审议， 当前已历经三审。我国用法治守护绿水青山将正式迈入"法典化"时代。《草案》五编，包括 总则编、污染防治编、生态保护编、绿色低碳发展编、法律责任和附则编。其中，绿色低碳发 展单独成编，"十五五"降碳是发展重点，非电绿能、再生资源等因政策驱动存崛起契机；预 计减污将持续深化，看好垃圾焚烧、水务、大气业绩稳健+价值重估。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 生态环境法典草案即将提请审议，关注法治守 2] 护绿水青山下的环 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Province has made significant progress in ecological demonstration creation, achieving over half of its target for provincial and national level designations by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing its rich biodiversity on an international stage [1][3]. Group 1: Ecological Demonstration Achievements - 34 localities have received provincial ecological demonstration designations, while 27 have achieved national level recognition, covering a total of 47 counties, exceeding the target of reaching half of the counties by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - Seven localities have been recognized as global natural cities, highlighting the province's biodiversity advantages [1]. Group 2: Environmental Initiatives and Results - The province has focused on "carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with notable achievements in carbon reduction through the exploration of ecological product value realization [3]. - Guizhou has implemented local regulations for ecological civilization, with specific regions developing green industry systems, such as the electronic information manufacturing and ecological food sectors in Baiyun District [3]. - Air quality in Jianhe County has maintained over 99% of good air quality days for three consecutive years, and drinking water source quality has reached 100% compliance [3]. Group 3: "Two Mountains" Practice and Future Plans - Since 2017, Guizhou has established 39 provincial and above "Two Mountains" practice innovation bases, demonstrating successful models of ecological and economic benefits, such as the "China Tea Sea" in Meitan County and the transformation from coal economy to tourism in Libo County [5]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to conduct ecological demonstration creation naming every three years during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with Guizhou aiming to enhance and sustain its achievements while guiding regions to explore unique paths based on resource endowments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of carbon footprint labeling certification in Anhui Province, highlighting its significance in promoting low-carbon lifestyles and supporting the green transformation of the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Footprint Certification - 中创新航科技 (Zhongchuang Xinhang Technology) has obtained a carbon footprint certification for its lithium-ion battery cells, quantifying the carbon emissions at 51.575 kg CO2 equivalent for a battery with a capacity of 169 Ah [1]. - The certification process involves assessing the entire lifecycle of the product, including emissions from upstream suppliers, thus integrating carbon reduction into the supply chain [2]. - Since October of the previous year, approximately 10 companies in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors have been guided to apply for carbon footprint certification [2]. Group 2: Government Initiatives and Standards - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a comprehensive green transformation and the establishment of a carbon emission accounting system [1]. - Local standards for carbon footprint are being developed to guide enterprises in carbon reduction and provide a basis for certification agencies [3]. - The introduction of local electricity carbon footprint factors is expected to enhance the competitiveness of products with lower carbon emissions [3]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Plans - Accurate carbon emission accounting allows companies to identify high-energy consumption areas and explore reduction opportunities, meeting the green procurement demands of downstream customers [5]. - The carbon footprint labeling certification is anticipated to expand in product coverage and application areas, driving a shift towards greener production and lifestyle practices [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's carbon emission control system, which includes quotas, Green Certificates, and China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Carbon Emission Control System**: The system aims to constrain carbon-emitting enterprises, promote green electricity development, and compensate for carbon reduction projects. Key industries currently included are steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with plans to cover chemical, coking, and paper industries by the end of 2027 [1][3]. - **Quota Management**: The baseline values for quotas are set below equilibrium values, creating pressure for carbon reduction. The government will adjust these values based on actual conditions [1][4]. - **Carbon Price Trends**: The downward trend in carbon prices is a result of government policies providing companies with a buffer to adapt. The annual carbon reduction pressure is estimated at -0.5% [5]. - **Green Certificate Market**: Future plans include linking Green Certificates to corresponding carbon reduction amounts, allowing companies to offset emissions through purchases. Current low prices are due to a two-year validity period, but future policy clarity may stabilize prices [6]. - **Expansion of Quota Management**: The quota expansion plan is gradually progressing, with additional sectors like petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper expected to be included [7]. - **CCER Issuance Conditions**: Projects must demonstrate significant carbon reduction effects and align with national strategic development to qualify for CCER. Examples include renewable energy projects and infrastructure improvements [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Directions in Environmental Sector**: Key areas include waste incineration, non-electric green energy, and recycling of metals and plastics. Companies like Huanlan Environment and Weiming Environmental are expected to benefit from these trends [10][11][12]. - **Challenges and Opportunities in Steel Industry**: The steel sector, responsible for about 10% of total emissions, faces challenges in reducing carbon intensity due to process limitations. However, production control strategies present opportunities for emission reductions [16][17]. - **Opportunities in Light Industry**: The paper industry can leverage carbon trading through fast-growing forests, with companies like Yueyang Forest Paper leading in carbon credit transactions [18][19]. - **Building Industry's Role in Carbon Reduction**: The construction sector must adopt energy-saving technologies and focus on design optimization to reduce emissions effectively [20]. - **Future Policy Impacts on Cement Industry**: The cement sector, which contributes significantly to carbon emissions, will face stricter regulations and potential production cuts, impacting pricing dynamics [21][22]. - **Advantages of Specific Sub-industries**: Companies that provide energy-efficient materials, such as Luoyang Energy Saving, are positioned to benefit from the overall carbon reduction trend [23]. - **Impact of Dual Control Policies on New Energy**: The dual control policies are expected to accelerate the energy structure transformation, benefiting sectors like wind and solar energy, and enhancing the demand for related technologies [24].

Core Insights - China's green finance has transitioned from scale expansion to system improvement, achieving a significant leap as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and plans for the 15th [1] - By the end of Q3 2025, the balance of green loans reached 43.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, maintaining a growth rate above 20% for nearly five years [4][5] - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for balancing economic growth and carbon reduction, emphasizing the need for a modern financial system to support green low-carbon transitions [6][8] Development Achievements - China's green finance has made notable achievements in scale, systemic improvement, innovation, and international influence [4][5] - The top-level design of green finance has been continuously improved, with updated support project directories providing precise guidance for financial institutions [4] Future Breakthroughs - Future breakthroughs in green finance should focus on four areas: direction, path, model, and foundation [1][6] - Emphasis on deepening transition finance and expanding natural financing to fill critical funding gaps [6] - The integration of technology to enhance project identification and risk management is essential [7] Policy Recommendations - A consistent and transparent policy framework is necessary to guide financial institutions and market participants towards green activities [11] - The government should leverage fiscal funds to support strategic energy infrastructure and long-term green technology development [11] International Collaboration - The "Belt and Road" green investment principles should be enhanced to facilitate international cooperation and attract long-term capital for domestic green projects [14][15] - Establishing a cross-border risk prevention system and optimizing foreign investment access to green projects are critical [15] Market Dynamics - The integration of green finance with technology and inclusive finance is vital for expanding service scenarios and enhancing the social foundation for green transitions [7][12] - The focus should be on supporting traditional high-carbon industries in their transition to low-carbon technologies [13]

Group 1 - The conference on the development of China's ecological environment industry and environmental listed companies forum was held, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the environmental industry [1] - The "dual carbon" goals have been systematically integrated into the national top-level design, marking a new phase in ecological civilization construction with a focus on carbon reduction [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving carbon peak goals and making breakthroughs in high-quality development, emphasizing green development as a key aspect of modernization [4] Group 2 - The environmental industry has seen annual revenue exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, with a complete industrial chain covering pollution control, ecological restoration, and resource recycling [4][5] - The industry is transitioning from traditional pollution control to systematic integrated innovation, aiming for collaborative development in carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and economic growth [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]

Core Viewpoint - China Tianying has established a comprehensive green circular economy route, integrating green hydrogen consumption, green chemical derivatives, and a unified source-network-load-storage system, aiming to support the shipping industry's carbon reduction goals by 2030 [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company has formed a full industrial chain for green circular economy, focusing on the consumption of green hydrogen and green electricity [1] - China Tianying collaborates with companies like Germany's Mabro Oil, COSCO, and China Shipbuilding Fuel to secure end-use application scenarios [1] Group 2: Market Development - The company is working towards obtaining EU ISCCEU green certification to facilitate international market entry for its products [1] - By 2030, China Tianying plans to achieve a supply capacity of 1 million tons of ISCCRFNBO standard electro-methanol, contributing to the shipping industry's lifecycle carbon reduction targets [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Green City China, Jianfa International Group, New China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications [12][42][44]. Core Views - The report highlights the increasing pressure on corporate earnings in the short term, with a focus on the potential for export recovery in the coming year [9][10]. - The real estate sector is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for policy support to alleviate burdens on homebuyers [11]. - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing an optimized market structure, with high growth potential in the securities industry [15]. - The banking sector is expected to see accelerated valuation reassessment driven by strong allocation forces [17]. - The new energy sector is at a bottoming phase, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [20]. - The machinery sector is approaching mass production of humanoid robots, focusing on core supply chain targets [25]. - The military industry is expected to improve, with a focus on military trade, internal installations, and military-to-civilian transitions [27]. - The light industry is emphasizing opportunities in overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption [30]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The real estate sector is under increasing downward pressure, particularly in core cities, with expectations for policy measures to lower home purchase thresholds [11]. - Key companies like Green City China and Jianfa International Group are highlighted for their strong land acquisition and sales performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 [12][14]. Non-Bank Financial - The securities industry is expected to maintain high growth, with significant improvements in insurance companies' performance [15][16]. - New China Life Insurance is noted for its leading elasticity and potential for growth in the equity market [16]. Banking - The report emphasizes the ongoing valuation repair in the banking sector, particularly for large state-owned banks and city commercial banks [17][19]. - Bank of Communications is highlighted for its low PB valuation compared to peers, indicating potential for significant upside [19]. New Energy - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on solar, storage, and lithium battery technologies [20][21]. - Companies like Sunshine Power and Siling Co. are recommended for their growth potential in the energy storage market [22][23]. Machinery - The humanoid robot sector is approaching mass production, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic expected to benefit from this trend [25][26]. Military - The military sector is projected to see upward trends in military trade and civilian applications of military technology [27][28]. Light Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption opportunities, with companies like Simor International and Aorijin highlighted for their growth potential [30][32][34]. Environmental - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies and overseas expansion opportunities, with companies like Huanlan Environment and Ice Wheel Environment noted for their growth prospects [35][40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a dual control system for carbon emission intensity and total carbon emissions starting from the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a strategic shift towards carbon reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new policy aims to leverage existing administrative management advantages while enhancing the use of market mechanisms [1][2]. - The construction of the carbon market in China has entered a new phase of rapid development, with plans for the national carbon market to cover 80% of total carbon emissions in the future [1][2]. Group 2: International Benchmarking - The approach taken by the European Union, which utilizes carbon markets to address emissions in covered sectors and administrative measures for uncovered sectors, serves as a valuable reference for China [1][2].