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【国金电新】蔚蓝锂芯深度:工具电池景气向上,拓展BBU电池第二增长曲线
新兴产业观察者· 2025-02-27 05:44
Group 1: Company Performance and Recovery - The company has faced performance pressure in recent years but is expected to see significant recovery in 2024, with a focus on lithium battery, metal logistics, and LED businesses [4][6][7] - In H1 2024, the company's revenues from lithium batteries, metal logistics, and LED businesses were 1.11 billion, 1.16 billion, and 750 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 79%, 14%, and 25% [4][6] - The company is a leading player in the small cylindrical battery market, with a focus on electric tools and a recovery in demand expected in 2024 [4][6] Group 2: Tool Battery Segment - The tool battery segment is returning to an upward cycle, with demand recovering after two years of decline, and exports of electric drills, chainsaws, and lawnmowers expected to grow by 32%, 29%, and 72% respectively in 2024 [2][8][10] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales volume and profit per unit, with sales of 1.75 billion units in H1 2024 and an expected profit of over 0.3 yuan per unit [2][18] - The U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to sustain tool demand, with a projected double-digit growth in tool demand in 2025 [13][16] Group 3: Non-Tool Battery Segment - The company is expanding into new markets such as Battery Backup Units (BBU), which are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7-9% from 2024 to 2028 [3][26] - BBU batteries are anticipated to have significantly higher profitability compared to traditional cylindrical batteries, with potential for domestic substitution [3][34] - The company is actively exploring applications in smart mobility, low-altitude, and robotics, with projected battery revenues of 2.33 billion, 4.2 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [3][26] Group 4: Metal Logistics and LED Business - The metal logistics business is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 2.4 billion, 2.6 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [4][6] - The LED business is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with revenues expected to reach 1.7 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.1 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in market conditions [4][6]