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交银国际每日晨报-20250829
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 01:55
Group 1: Nvidia - Blackwell Ultra deployment is progressing smoothly, but uncertainties remain regarding exports to China. FY2Q26 revenue reached $46.7 billion with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 72.7%, exceeding previous guidance [1] - Management has guided a median revenue of $54 billion for FY3Q26, with a median gross margin of 73.5%. If export conditions allow, an additional $2-5 billion in revenue could be generated [1] - The launch of Spectrum XGS and the progress of the Rubin series are in line with expectations, although the performance improvement of Rubin over Blackwell remains unclear [2] Group 2: Ctrip Group - Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to rise. The company is well-positioned in the current competitive environment [3] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 653 based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio, maintaining a buy rating [3] Group 3: Meituan - Meituan's Q2 revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, but adjusted net profit fell by 89% due to irrational competition in the industry [6] - The company expects intensified competition in the third quarter, leading to a projected loss exceeding 15 billion yuan [6][7] Group 4: China National Heavy Duty Truck Group - The company reported a 4.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 4.0%, aligning with market expectations [8] - The target price is set at HKD 26.45, reflecting a 9.9x P/E ratio for 2025, with a focus on structural recovery in heavy truck sales [8] Group 5: China Innovationpay - The company experienced a 31.7% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, with a significant 109.7% growth in energy storage battery revenue [9] - The target price is maintained at HKD 24.77, anticipating a concentrated release of delivery capacity in 2026 [10] Group 6: Innovent Biologics - The company reported a 37% year-on-year increase in product revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit reaching 830 million yuan [11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 105, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's pipeline and commercialization efforts [12] Group 7: China Life Insurance - The company saw a 6.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, although growth has slowed compared to Q1 [18] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 30, based on a 1.4x P/B ratio for 2025 [19] Group 8: China Pacific Insurance - The company achieved a 32.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with strong performance in both underwriting and investment [20] - The target price has been raised to HKD 24, reflecting improved profitability and competitive advantages [21] Group 9: Yasheng Group - The company reported an 8.3% year-on-year decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to proactive business scale adjustments [22] - The target price is maintained at HKD 3.20, with expectations for recovery as margins stabilize [23] Group 10: XinAo Energy - The company experienced a slight 1% year-on-year decline in core profit for the first half of 2025, meeting market expectations [24] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 73.66, reflecting a cautious outlook on retail gas demand [24]
英伟达:全面进入Blackwell时代,推理需求上升-20250530
BOCOM International· 2025-05-30 00:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) with a target price of $175.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.8% from the current price of $134.81 [10][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant demand for reasoning applications, which is expected to drive long-term computational resource needs. The management emphasizes the importance of iterative reasoning in enhancing AI performance, with a notable increase in token usage for reasoning applications among major cloud service providers [5][6]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell product line is projected to contribute nearly 70% of data center computing revenue, with major cloud service providers deploying an average of 1,000 NVL72 Blackwell rack systems weekly [5]. - The report anticipates that the impact of export restrictions will be less severe than previously expected, with revenue guidance for FY2Q26 set at a median of $45 billion, and a Non-GAAP gross margin target of 72% [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NVIDIA are as follows: - 2024: $60,922 million - 2025: $130,497 million - 2026E: $210,221 million - 2027E: $267,431 million - 2028E: $285,823 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 125.9% for 2024 and 114.2% for 2025 [4][12]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2024: $32,312 million - 2025: $74,265 million - 2026E: $115,401 million - 2027E: $155,154 million - 2028E: $162,364 million - Corresponding year-on-year growth rates are 288.2% for 2024 and 131.1% for 2025 [4][12]. - The report also notes an increase in the Non-GAAP EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 to $4.65 and $6.31, respectively, based on a 32x average P/E ratio for those years [5][6]. Market Position and Trends - The report indicates that NVIDIA's hardware compatibility is improving, aligning with trends in open-source software, which is seen as a positive direction for technological development [5]. - The anticipated demand for AI and reasoning applications is expected to keep computational resource needs high, with a shift from single-instance reasoning to iterative reasoning and eventually to agentic reasoning [5].