1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of pulp are not optimistic, with a loose supply - demand situation for wood pulp and a record - high warehouse receipt out - flow. However, the pulp price is at a relatively low valuation level and may be oversold [3]. - The pulp price is affected by multiple factors. From a cyclical perspective, it may be close to the support level; from the international oil price perspective, the stabilization of oil price provides some support; and the large - scale warehouse receipt cancellation and out - flow also indicate a low - valuation situation [3]. - The consumption structure is favorable for broad - leaf pulp, and there is a possibility that the broad - leaf pulp is undervalued, and the balance sheet data supports the strengthening of the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [38][46]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Fundamentals - **Upstream**: Wood chip costs are declining, such as the fall in CME wood futures settlement prices, the decrease in the Russian wood products business confidence index, the increase in coniferous wood chip imports, and the decline in the import value index of wood chips and wood pellets [3]. - **Downstream**: The inventory of finished paper is piling up. In March, the inventory of finished products in the domestic paper industry increased month - on - month to 76.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%, and it has been increasing monthly for 12 consecutive months. In March, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US paper product wholesalers rose to 1.06% month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, and it has been rising monthly for 10 consecutive months [3]. 3.2 Valuation and Cycle - In the 7 - year cycle, in the first year (1990, 1997, 2004, 2011, 2018, 2025), the pulp price changes from year - on - year increase to year - on - year decrease, and the decline is generally no more than - 23%. Currently, the pulp price has a year - on - year decline of - 19%, which is close to the low - valuation level and may be oversold [3]. - The pulp price seems to have good regularity in the first three years of the seven - year cycle. According to this rule, the support level of the pulp price in 2025 is around a year - on - year decline of - 23%, and currently, the SP has reached a year - on - year decline of - 20%, close to the support level [13]. 3.3 Factors Affecting SP Single - Side - **Wood Chip Cost**: From May to now, the average closing price of the near - month CME wood futures is 545 US dollars per thousand board feet, a year - on - year increase of + 6.4%, with 9 consecutive months of marginal decline, which is negative for SP single - side [14]. - **Russian Wood Products Business Confidence Index**: In April, the index was - 10 points, a month - on - month decline, hitting a new low since September 2023, a year - on - year decline of - 13 points, with 11 consecutive months of marginal decline, negative for SP single - side [16]. - **Import Volume**: In March, the imported volume of coniferous pulp increased by 906,000 tons month - on - month, the imported volume of coniferous wood chips decreased by 9,000 tons month - on - month, and the total converted wood pulp volume was 910,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 6.2%, with 2 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [18]. - **Import Value Index of Wood Chips or Wood Pellets**: In March, the index was 102.8 points, a month - on - month increase, a year - on - year decrease of - 3.5%, with both month - on - month and year - on - year increases, slightly positive for SP single - side [21]. - **Profit of the Paper Industry**: In March, the cumulative profit of the domestic paper industry declined by - 16.9%, with profits deteriorating for 6 consecutive months, negative for SP single - side [22]. - **Inventory of Finished Products in the Paper Industry**: In March, the inventory of finished products in the domestic paper industry was 76.45 billion yuan, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of + 4.5%, with 12 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [24]. - **International Crude Oil Price**: In April, the price was 65.9 US dollars per barrel, a month - on - month and year - on - year decline, hitting the largest decline since August 2023, with 3 consecutive months of month - on - month and year - on - year decline, negative for SP single - side [26]. - **Inventory - to - Sales Ratio of US Paper Product Wholesalers**: In March, the ratio was 1.06%, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of + 5.8%, with 10 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [28]. 3.4 Paper Production and Pulp Consumption - In April, domestic double - offset paper production was 832,000 tons, copperplate paper production was 334,000 tons, white cardboard production was 1.32 million tons, and tissue paper production was 1.258 million tons. The consumption of broad - leaf pulp was 2.27 million tons, and the consumption of coniferous pulp was 538,000 tons. The consumption ratio of broad - leaf to coniferous pulp in domestic finished paper was 4.22 times, a year - on - year increase of + 7.5%, with 5 consecutive months of marginal increase [38]. 3.5 Balance Sheet Data - **Supply**: In March, the import of non - coniferous wood chips was 1.492 million tons, broad - leaf pulp was 1.47 million tons, coniferous wood chips was 9,000 tons, and coniferous pulp was 906,000 tons. The ratio of broad - leaf fiber to coniferous fiber was 2.43 times, a year - on - year increase of + 21.8%, with the growth rate of broad - leaf fiber slowing down for 2 consecutive months [47]. - **Inventory**: In April, the social inventory of four ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin) was 2.047 million tons, and the total inventory of the SHFE SP contract was 346,000 tons. The ratio of the two was 5.91 times, a year - on - year increase of + 26.9%. The relatively slow inventory accumulation of broad - leaf pulp is positive for the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [47]. - **Consumption**: In March, the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe was 273,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with 4 consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is relatively negative for coniferous pulp consumption and positive for the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [48].

纸浆周报 2025年05月第2周 大宗商品研究所 潘盛杰 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 木片下跌成纸累库，关注短期超跌机会 ◼ 目前纸浆的基本面不太乐观。从上游来看，木片成本出现下滑，像CME木材期货结算价格下跌，俄罗斯木制品商业信心指数下降，针叶木片进口量增加，木片 木粒进口价值指数也下滑。下游方面，成纸库存不断积压，3月国内造纸业产成品存货环比增加，达到764.5亿元，同比上升4.5%，并且已经连续12个月呈逐月 增加态势；同时，3月美国纸品批发商库销比环比上升至1.06%，同比增加5.8%，连续10个月呈逐月上升态势，这些情况都对浆价产生了下行压力。 ◼ 不过，也可以从其他角度来分析浆价短期内是否会触底。 ◼ 阔叶浆仍有望相对企稳，支撑纸浆整体估值回升。 GALAXYFUTURES 1 ➢ 若不考虑基本面因素，只看价格周期规律，从1990年至今的7年周期里的第1年（1990年、1997年、2004年、2011年、2018年和2025年），浆价都会从同比 上涨转为同比下跌，且跌幅一般不会超过-23%。现在浆价同比下跌-19%，从统计角度来看，已经接近低估值水平，可能存在超跌的情况。 ➢ 从国际油价角 ...