Report Information - Report Date: February 9, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Crude Oil Spot Market Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03151390 [2] - Investment Consultation Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0023496 [2] Key Points Trade and Logistics - US President Donald Trump authorized the government to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran but did not immediately implement new tariff measures [2] - Trump cancelled the 25% additional tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, a step to consolidate bilateral trade agreement terms [2] - Due to the slow复产 of the giant Tengiz oil field from the January power facility fire, Kazakhstan's oil exports through the main Russian pipeline this month may decline by up to 35% [2] National Strategy - The United Steelworkers of America reached a national agreement on pay and benefits on Friday, averting a national strike risk that could have affected 30,000 employees at 26 companies mainly engaged in crude oil refining and petrochemical plants [2] - Cuba is at risk of losing key aviation services as aviation fuel is running out, and its allies have cut off an important channel for emigration under US pressure to overthrow the Havana regime [2] Spot Transactions - South Korean refining companies including GS Caltex and SK Energy have recently purchased more CPC Blend crude oil for March loading after making similar deals last week [2] Oilfield Pipelines - Namibia's Ministry of Energy said that TotalEnergies and Petrobras did not notify the government in advance of their equity acquisition plan for offshore exploration licenses in the country [2] Logical Analysis - The market is assessing the progress of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and reacting strongly to related news [2] - Crude oil had its first weekly decline since mid-December, reflecting the squeezing out of geopolitical premiums in oil prices [2] - The market is expected to be in a wide-range shock, with Brent in the range of $66 - $68 [2]

Group 1 - Oil prices rose on Thursday, with WTI crude futures up by $0.15 to $59.1 per barrel and Brent crude futures up by $0.59 to $63.26 per barrel, indicating a slight recovery in the market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][18] - The recent discussions led by Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have not yielded significant progress, with Putin expressing that some of the U.S. proposals are unacceptable, yet Russia remains open to further talks [3][6][21] - Saudi Arabia has set its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a premium of $0.6 per barrel, marking the lowest level in five years, as the global oil market faces oversupply issues [27][10] Group 2 - The recent weather and drone attacks have disrupted oil exports from Russia's Black Sea ports, with November exports expected to be about 1 million tons lower than planned [8][22] - Kazakhstan's oil production has decreased by 6% to 1.9 million barrels per day due to the impact of the CPC pipeline attack, which is crucial for its oil exports [9][23] - The market is closely watching Saudi Arabia's pricing decisions, as a significant price cut could trigger a new round of regional pricing competition, affecting refining margins [10][27]

Core Insights - Russian oil exports from Novorossiysk port and CPC terminal decreased by approximately 1 million tons in November due to severe storms and recent drone attacks disrupting loading operations [1] - The planned loading volume for Ural, Siberian Light, and KEBCO crude oil at Novorossiysk was around 3.2 million tons, but actual exports were only about 2.5 million tons [1] - Delays in shipments of CPC blend crude oil were reported, with about 300,000 tons scheduled for two Suezmax tankers postponed to December [1] - The recent attacks on critical port infrastructure in the Black Sea have exacerbated Russia's export capacity limitations [1] - Russia's oil export plans for December are substantial, and the additional quantities delayed from November may lead to further postponements into January [1]