原油现货市场日报 研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地 出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的 具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。本报告也不涉及任何利益冲突问题。 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh | | 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普授权其政府可对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家 加征关税， 但暂未立即实施任何新关税措施。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普取消了因印度购买俄罗斯石油而加征的 | | --- | --- | | 贸易物流 | 25%额外关税， 此举为巩固双边贸易协议条款迈出第一步。 | | | 四名贸易消息人士向路透社透露， 由于巨型田吉兹油田正从1月电 | | | 力设施火灾中缓慢复产， 哈萨克斯坦本月通过俄罗斯主要管道的石 | | | 油出口量可能下降高达35%。 | | 国家战略 | 美国钢铁工人联合会周五通过了一项关于薪酬与福利的全国性协 议， | ...

Group 1 - Oil prices rose on Thursday, with WTI crude futures up by $0.15 to $59.1 per barrel and Brent crude futures up by $0.59 to $63.26 per barrel, indicating a slight recovery in the market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][18] - The recent discussions led by Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have not yielded significant progress, with Putin expressing that some of the U.S. proposals are unacceptable, yet Russia remains open to further talks [3][6][21] - Saudi Arabia has set its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a premium of $0.6 per barrel, marking the lowest level in five years, as the global oil market faces oversupply issues [27][10] Group 2 - The recent weather and drone attacks have disrupted oil exports from Russia's Black Sea ports, with November exports expected to be about 1 million tons lower than planned [8][22] - Kazakhstan's oil production has decreased by 6% to 1.9 million barrels per day due to the impact of the CPC pipeline attack, which is crucial for its oil exports [9][23] - The market is closely watching Saudi Arabia's pricing decisions, as a significant price cut could trigger a new round of regional pricing competition, affecting refining margins [10][27]

Core Insights - Russian oil exports from Novorossiysk port and CPC terminal decreased by approximately 1 million tons in November due to severe storms and recent drone attacks disrupting loading operations [1] - The planned loading volume for Ural, Siberian Light, and KEBCO crude oil at Novorossiysk was around 3.2 million tons, but actual exports were only about 2.5 million tons [1] - Delays in shipments of CPC blend crude oil were reported, with about 300,000 tons scheduled for two Suezmax tankers postponed to December [1] - The recent attacks on critical port infrastructure in the Black Sea have exacerbated Russia's export capacity limitations [1] - Russia's oil export plans for December are substantial, and the additional quantities delayed from November may lead to further postponements into January [1]