热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | 讲 | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | है | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 456.30 | -5.14 | 43092 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 62.84 | -2.77 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 67.52 | -2.71 | 511042 | | | ਜਿੰ | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 2.1436 | -2.67 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 675.00 | -2.91 | 193299 | | 后市观点 油价大跌，因市场对美伊谈判可能达成协议做出反应，SC原油夜盘跌幅更是超5%，中国马上进入一年 最长假期促使部分资金选择离场放大了跌幅。油价大跌同时，金银及美股同样出现大跌，金融市场风险 偏好再次降温，也助推了油价调整力度，显然一周前的暴跌余震仍在，过去几天我们报告中反复提醒了 油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, prices increased due to the escalation of domestic demonstrations in Iran and the US's warning. In the middle of the week, as the expectation of the US attacking Iran weakened, oil prices dropped significantly. Overall, the crude oil market still faces supply - surplus pressure, and without geopolitical drivers, it's difficult for oil prices to maintain a strong pattern [2]. - OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are operating at high production levels. It is expected that the non - OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. The situation in Venezuela may cause short - term disruptions to exports, but in the long - term, it is seen as a potential supply expansion. Overall, supply growth pressure remains, with short - term supply variables depending on Iran (geopolitical developments) and long - term on OPEC+ policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors initially drove prices up, but later the weakening of relevant expectations led to a decline. The supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market persists [2]. Key Concerns - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Periodic and Spot Market**: SC crude oil futures rose from 432.70 yuan/barrel to 438.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.41% increase; Oman crude oil spot increased from 61.20 dollars/barrel to 62.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.60% increase; Brent crude oil futures went up from 63.02 dollars/barrel to 64.20 dollars/barrel, a 1.87% increase; WTI crude oil futures rose from 58.40 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a 1.78% increase [4]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production decreased from 13,792 thousand barrels per day to 13,753 thousand barrels per day, a 0.28% decline. OPEC's production situation is presented in relevant charts [4][13]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil inventory increased from 419,056 thousand barrels to 422,477 thousand barrels, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Demand**: Data such as refinery operating rates in the US, China, Europe, and India are presented in relevant charts [26][28][30]. - **Cost - profit**: The comprehensive refinery profit increased from 677 yuan/ton to 726 yuan/ton, a 7.24% increase [4].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that geopolitical risks related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran will continue to cause market volatility, but oil prices are expected to gradually decline this year due to oversupply from increased production [1][3] - The firm maintains its average price forecast for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $56 and $52 per barrel for 2026, respectively, predicting prices will drop to $54 and $50 per barrel in Q4 as OECD oil inventories rise [1][3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a daily oversupply of 2.3 million barrels in the oil market by 2026, indicating that unless there are significant supply disruptions or OPEC implements production cuts, oil prices may need to decline to balance the market and support strong demand growth [1][3] Group 2 - U.S. policymakers are focused on ensuring adequate energy supply and maintaining relatively low oil prices, which is expected to suppress rising oil prices ahead of the midterm elections [2][4] - Oil prices are projected to gradually recover by 2027, as the growth rate of non-OPEC oil supply slows and demand remains strong, leading to a return to a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude in 2027 to $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively, a decrease of $5 from previous estimates, due to increased supply expectations from the U.S., Venezuela, and Russia [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor and suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is mainly driven by a loose supply - demand situation, with a downward trend in the central price. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil faces a supply - driven loose situation. The cost of asphalt is expected to rise due to supply shortages and high alternative costs. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The current crude oil market is in a pattern of inventory accumulation due to oversupply. In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure. The situation between the US and Venezuela is unlikely to provide sustainable fundamental support for oil price rebounds. If US sanctions on Venezuela are relaxed, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The recent strengthening of the cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors. The Venezuelan situation suppresses crude oil prices but supports high-sulfur fuel oil cracking. There are concerns about potential disruptions in heavy - product supply, which may increase the demand for fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Geopolitical uncertainties in high - sulfur resource regions continue to affect raw material and high - sulfur fuel oil supply expectations. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to face supply - driven loosening pressure and its fundamentals remain weak. [3] Asphalt - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp drop in shipments to China. It is expected to significantly impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, although January arrivals are still sufficient according to Kpler data. The current futures price has factored in the increase in premiums and is now in a sideways trend. If domestic refineries switch to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian crude as alternatives, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude supply and the rising cost of alternative raw materials are expected to drive up asphalt production costs. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the oil market, particularly focusing on the U.S. government's control over Venezuelan oil sales and its implications for global oil prices and supply dynamics [4][21]. Group 1: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil - The U.S. Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, announced that the U.S. will "indefinitely" control the sale of Venezuelan oil, including both current inventories and future sales [5][21]. - The revenue from these sales will be deposited into U.S. government-controlled accounts, which will then be allocated to benefit both the American and Venezuelan people [5][21]. - President Trump stated that the interim Venezuelan government will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. at market prices, with the proceeds managed by the U.S. [10][23]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Movements - Oil prices experienced significant volatility, with a 5% drop within 12 hours following Trump's announcement about Venezuelan oil supplies [4][19]. - The WTI crude oil futures closed at $55.99 per barrel, down by $1.14, while Brent crude futures fell to $59.96, a decrease of $0.74 [20][7]. - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.83 million barrels, but gasoline and diesel inventories saw significant increases, which negatively impacted oil prices [19][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Supply Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with factors such as Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian-Ukrainian tensions influencing market sentiment and supply expectations [4][19]. - The U.S. plans to reduce sanctions on Venezuela, which may lead to a more stable oil supply from the country [4][18]. - Chevron is reportedly negotiating with the U.S. government to expand its operational scope in Venezuela, seeking authorization to supply Venezuelan oil to other buyers [5][18].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, which are injecting risk premiums into oil prices [4][9][24]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, WTI crude oil futures rose by $1, or 1.74%, closing at $58.32 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by $1.01, or 1.66%, to $61.76 per barrel [21]. - The market initially expected a high opening but saw a significant drop during the Asian trading session before rebounding sharply [4][19]. - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and tensions with Iran, are influencing market sentiment and price movements [4][9][19]. Venezuela's Oil Situation - Venezuela has the largest oil reserves globally, but its production has drastically declined due to mismanagement, nationalization, and sanctions, averaging about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, which is only 1% of global supply [9][25]. - Recent military actions by the U.S. have led to speculation that restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports may be relaxed, causing a surge in U.S. energy company stock prices [9][24][26]. - Analysts suggest that any significant recovery in Venezuelan oil production will require substantial investment, estimated in the hundreds of billions, and may take years to materialize [5][10][20]. Investment Opportunities - Chevron, the only major U.S. oil company currently operating in Venezuela, saw its stock rise by 7.3%, with other refiners experiencing gains between 5% and 16% [9][24][27]. - Oilfield service companies also saw stock increases, indicating potential benefits from improved production capabilities in Venezuela [10][27]. - If political transitions occur and new investments are introduced, Venezuela's oil production could potentially increase to 2.5 million barrels per day over the next decade [10][25][28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (biased towards bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market) [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium caused by the US-Venezuela conflict is limited and difficult to change the downward trend of the oil price center. The current crude oil market is in a stage of inventory accumulation with oversupply, and the oil price will still be dominated by the supply-demand pattern and maintain a downward trend [3] - Fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil on the cost side, but the Venezuelan crude oil supply disruption may indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly; low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply and is expected to remain weak [4] - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the holiday, the external crude oil futures did not rise due to the escalation of the US-Venezuela conflict, and the domestic SC crude oil futures fell by more than 3%. The geopolitical conflict has limited and unsustainable impact on oil prices, and the current market is in an inventory accumulation stage [3] - In 2025, Venezuela's oil production accounted for only about 0.94%-0.96% of the global total, and its potential supply interruption is not enough to drive oil prices up in the long term [3] - The US, IEA, and OPEC all predict that there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure in the global crude oil market in January 2026. The US may take over Venezuelan oil resources, and if sanctions are relaxed later, Venezuelan production may even increase [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - During the holiday, the US military strike on Venezuela led to a short-term halt in its energy exports including oil and high-sulfur fuel oil. However, due to the relatively limited export volume, it is difficult to change the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market, and fuel oil followed the weakening of crude oil [4] - The interruption of Venezuelan crude oil supply may affect the asphalt production of domestic refineries, and some refineries may increase the procurement of alternative raw materials such as fuel oil, which will indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply due to the recovery of overseas supply and is expected to remain weak [4] Asphalt - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend under the background of the escalation of the Venezuelan situation, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply [5] - Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey oil) is an important raw material source for domestic refineries. Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp decrease in the shipment volume to China, which is expected to significantly impact the domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later [5] - If domestic refineries turn to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian TMX crude oil as substitutes, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude oil. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced slight declines due to geopolitical tensions in regions such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela, which have created market disturbances while the oversupply situation in the oil market remains unchanged [4][17]. Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.95 per barrel, down by 0.22%, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.33 per barrel, down by 0.26% [6][19]. - The latest API data indicated an increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, which is bearish for oil prices [4][17]. Supply and Demand Factors - December is noted as a period with the least pressure from oversupply in the second half of the year, with seasonal demand increases during the holiday period in Europe and the U.S. [4][17]. - China set records in December for both maritime crude oil imports and onshore inventory, with imports exceeding 12.5 million barrels per day, contributing to a historical high of 1.2 billion barrels in onshore storage [7][20]. Geopolitical Influences - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with at least 24 incidents reported in December, increasing pressure on Russian exports [10][23]. - The geopolitical risks and localized supply disruptions are providing some support for oil prices, although rising U.S. inventories and month-end trading behaviors are exerting downward pressure [9][22]. Regional Market Insights - The Middle East oil market is experiencing increased volatility, with stable cash Dubai crude prices and significant declines in Oman and Murban crude prices [21]. - Kazakhstan's oil production has decreased by approximately 6% in December due to supply disruptions caused by adverse weather and geopolitical tensions [21].

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices are experiencing a downward trend in December, influenced by bearish market sentiment, while gasoline prices remain stable due to pre-holiday stocking demands [1] Supply Factors - In January, domestic refined oil supply is expected to see a slight increase, with major and local refineries anticipating higher production levels. Yunnan Petrochemical plans to resume operations mid-January, and overall refinery operating rates are expected to rise slightly [1] Demand Factors - Gasoline consumption is expected to improve due to increased private car travel during the New Year holiday, while diesel consumption is projected to decline as outdoor industries and construction activities slow down ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - Gasoline export plans for January are set at 486,000 tons, a significant increase of 82.02% month-on-month, while diesel exports are planned at 354,000 tons, a decrease of 10.61% [2] Cost Factors - The global crude oil market is in a low-demand season, with weak demand expected to persist. Despite OPEC+ halting production increases for Q1 2026, the oversupply situation is likely to worsen. The geopolitical landscape remains unpredictable, which could impact short-term oil prices [3] Market Sentiment - There is a positive shift in replenishment sentiment for gasoline due to improved consumption expectations, while diesel demand continues to decline, leading to a predominantly bearish market outlook [4] Price Trends - In January, international crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, impacting market sentiment. Gasoline prices are likely to see slight increases due to pre-holiday stocking, while diesel prices are expected to decline due to oversupply and reduced demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market is facing multiple challenges, including robust global oil demand growth despite pessimistic sentiment, significant supply increases expected by 2025, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3] Supply Dynamics - Non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, with Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana contributing an anticipated 1.4 million bpd from deepwater resources [2] - OPEC has announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter, with a projected annual production increase of 600,000 bpd if output remains unchanged throughout the year [2] - The supply surplus in 2025 is expected to be the highest since the pandemic, primarily driven by non-OPEC suppliers, particularly from deepwater projects and shale oil [1] Demand Outlook - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 900,000 bpd in 2026, with growth patterns influenced by the monetary policy cycle in the US and Europe, expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half of the year [3] - The first half of 2026 will face dual pressures from high supply levels and seasonal demand weakness, impacting price expectations [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, will significantly influence oil price volatility in 2025 and 2026, alongside US monetary policy and the Iran-Israel situation [3] - A successful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine talks could lead to downward pressure on oil prices due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums and potential increases in Russian supply [3] Market Structure - The structure of oil inventories is becoming increasingly differentiated, with rising waterborne inventories reaching their highest levels since 2020, while land-based inventories remain under pressure [1] - The domestic SC crude oil market will be influenced by potential logistical changes in Russian oil supply, with uncertainties surrounding the resumption of purchases by Western countries [3]