智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，伊拉克正在与原油运输领域最具影响力的巨头之一 ——大宗商品贸易巨头维多集团(Vitol)进行谈判，一旦该国库尔德地区的原油出口在停止两年后恢复，将处理原油 销售事宜。对于今年以来长期疲软的国际原油基准——布伦特原油价格走势来说，这一消息显然偏向负面，库尔 德石油出口的恢复将推动"原油市场供应过剩"预期升温，从而可能推动近期有所反弹布伦特原油价格步入疲软轨 迹。 如果一项新的和解最终结束停运，这家全球最大规模的独立石油贸易商的参与或可加快伊拉克北部地区原油的全 球范围流动。库尔德地区政府内阁秘书Amanj Raheem表示，出口最早可于当地时间周六上午6点恢复。 换句话说，并不是"维多取代政府来卖油"，而是所有权与定价权：仍由伊拉克政府一侧(SOMO)掌握(通常按官方售 价 OSP);销售与物流执行则委托维多在土耳其杰伊汉港等地承接原油出口货源、对外销售、安排提货与结算，相当 于营销代理/承销商的角色;对在库区运营的国际石油公司，维多也可能依据安排代为销售其分得的油量。 库尔德地区的原油运量恢复还可能使维多集团收回在2023年停运前与库尔德地区当局达成安排 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase oil production next month, shifting focus towards market share rather than maintaining oil prices [2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day during a video meeting [2] - Saudi Arabia is pushing for a restoration of more oil production to regain market share, with discussions ongoing regarding the currently suspended 1.66 million barrels per day [2] - The international oil price has experienced volatility, with WTI crude futures dropping 2.38% to $61.97 per barrel, marking a decline of over 5.5% in the last three trading days [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Geopolitical Risks - The expectation of OPEC+ increasing production has led to downward pressure on oil prices, with concerns of significant supply surplus in the fourth quarter [2][5] - Geopolitical risks have introduced short-term uncertainties into the market, with a notable decrease in WTI crude futures net short positions and an increase in ICE Brent crude net long positions [4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts involving Yemen and Ukraine, are contributing to a risk premium in the oil market [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term support from geopolitical conflicts and expectations of interest rate cuts, supply surplus remains the primary factor suppressing oil prices [5] - Forecasts indicate that the global oil market will face a surplus exceeding 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, with an annual surplus surpassing 1.6 million barrels per day [5] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting's decisions, potential U.S. sanctions on Russia, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are critical variables that could influence short-term oil price movements [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly. In the short - term, medium - term and intraday, the trend of crude oil 2510 is mainly oscillatory, with a weakening tendency in the intraday view. The bearish fundamentals dominate as the macro bullish expectations are digested [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.21% to 483.9 yuan/barrel in the night session last Friday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weakening trend on Monday [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report. Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, and with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. This leads to the bearish fundamentals taking the lead [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, and it is expected to operate weakly [1]. - Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. The bearish fundamentals are dominant, and the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude oil 2510 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Oscillation with a weak bias | Weak operation | There are differences between bulls and bears, and crude oil oscillates weakly [1] | 3.2 Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Energy and Chemical Sector of Commodity Futures - **Core Logic**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. The demand growth rate has declined, and the crude oil inventory will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The bearish fundamentals are dominant after the digestion of macro - bullish expectations [5]. - **Market Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a weakly bullish oscillating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.14% to 486.6 yuan/barrel, but the rebound was suppressed [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to be dominated by bearish factors, with the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, despite an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be weakly volatile [1][5]. Driving Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report, stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, especially with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the fading of macro - bullish expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price closing down 1.01% to 481.5 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 will run weakly in the short - term, with an intraday and short - term view of oscillating weakly and a medium - term view of oscillating. Due to factors such as slow demand growth, increased supply, and the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals are dominant [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Time - period Views**: For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that next year the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals take the lead. On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillating and weakly - running trend, with the futures price dropping by 2.19% to 486.8 yuan per barrel. It is expected that on Wednesday, the contract will maintain an oscillating and weakly - running trend [5].

Group 1 - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment will take effect from August 26, 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton respectively [1] - This marks the 17th adjustment of domestic refined oil prices in 2025, with a total of seven decreases, resulting in a pattern of "six increases, seven decreases, and four pauses" for the year [1] - The price reduction translates to a decrease of 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.15 yuan per liter for 0 diesel, leading to a savings of approximately 7 yuan for a full tank in a typical 50L private car [1] Group 2 - During the adjustment period from August 12 to August 25, international oil prices exhibited a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with the average level being lower than the previous adjustment period [2] - The International Energy Agency has lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 while significantly raising the global oil supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, with a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories expected in the fourth quarter [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Ukraine situation, have led to increased oil price volatility, despite expectations of a gradual decline in oil demand as the summer driving season ends [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and oscillating trend. Despite the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the contract showed a moderately strong performance in the night session on Friday, and is likely to continue this trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate with a moderately strong bias [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year as demand growth is slow and supply is surging, even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories are expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is receding. As the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rises, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a moderately strong and oscillating trend in the night session on Friday, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.39% to 492.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory - bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly up 1.27% to 492.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with increased production from OPEC+ countries. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous bearish sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillatory - bullish trend on Thursday night [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias. This is due to the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, despite the expected record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.95% to 486.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend on Thursday [5].