LED 业务盈利亮眼，金属物流保持稳健。公司LED 业务25Q2 贡献利润超5 千万元，环增15%，盈利表 现亮眼，随着下游需求持续回暖，高端产品占比提升，我们预计全年贡献利润1.5-2.0 亿元，同增 35%+，此外公司已推出CSP 芯片级封装产品，26-27 年有望贡献增长点；公司金属物流业务25Q2 贡献 利润4 千万元，环比微增，我们预计25 年有望贡献利润1.7 亿元+，持续贡献稳定现金流。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到公司业绩超预期，我们上修25-27 年归母净利预期7.5/10.0/13.1 亿元（此 前预期6.5/8.2/10.5 亿元），同比+55%/+33%/+31%，对应PE 为21x/16x/12x，给予25 年30x PE，对应目 标价20 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，原材料价格波动，市场竞争加剧。 公司Q2 业绩超市场预期。公司H1 实现归母净利3.0-3.6 亿元，同增79%~115%，扣非净利3.2-3.8 亿元， 同增156%~204%；其中Q2 实现归母净利1.6-2.2 亿元，同增63%~125%，环增11%~54%，扣非净利1.7- 2.3 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations, with a net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 160 to 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 63% to 125% [9] - The company achieved a shipment of nearly 180 million units in Q2, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30%, with a profit per unit rising to 0.6 yuan [9] - The company is expanding into new fields, launching semi-solid cylindrical new products with an energy density of 350 Wh/kg and a cycle life exceeding 8000 times [9] - The LED business showed strong profitability, contributing over 50 million yuan in Q2, with expectations for annual profit contribution of 150 to 200 million yuan [9] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upward due to better-than-expected performance, with net profit estimates of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan respectively [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,222 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.92% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 140.82 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 62.78% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 0.12 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 110.53 [1] - The company anticipates total revenue growth of 29.38% in 2024, reaching 6,756 million yuan [10] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 487.84 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 246.43% [10]