Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline, and fell slightly again on Wednesday, which is related to the poor US ISM non-manufacturing data. The spread between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized, and it is difficult to see the expectation that LME copper prices will remain higher than COMEX copper prices in the short term. The oversold situation in COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should still be wary of the adverse effects of weak copper demand [3]. Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; the US dollar index declined due to employment data; there is obvious support below [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the US adjustment of copper tariff policies has led to an extremely inflated COMEX inventory [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,280 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - 1 contract decreased by 300 yuan/ton (-0.38%), and the Shanghai copper continuous - 3 contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract is at 9,674 US dollars/ton, up 39.5 US dollars (0.41%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 with no change [4]. Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,350 yuan/ton, 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,190 yuan/ton, and 78,500 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums of these regions also decreased [6]. Copper Spread and Inventory Data Spread Data - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan (-20.82%); the reasonable refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan (-0.19%) [8]. Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)**: The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,346 tons, up 1,579 tons (8.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12]. - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 156,125 tons, up 2,275 tons (1.48%); the registered warehouse receipts are 145,200 tons, up 3,350 tons (2.36%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,925 tons, down 1,075 tons (-8.96%) [14]. - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 263,104 tons, up 7,156 tons (2.8%); the registered warehouse receipts are 123,343 tons, up 13,890 tons (9.89%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 139,761 tons, down 11,176 tons (-7.4%) [16]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan (-45.88%); the copper concentrate TC is - 41 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar (-2.38%) [17].