Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong performance in the early session on December 17, with all three major indices rising, indicating a potential for continued market volatility and sector rotation as the year-end approaches [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.21% during the morning session [1]. - Over 3,700 stocks experienced declines, with a total trading volume of 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 98.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Hot Sectors 1. **Lithium Mining Concept** - The lithium mining sector showed strength, with Jin Yuan Co. achieving two consecutive trading limits and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [1]. 2. **Electrolyte Concept** - The electrolyte sector rebounded, with Tianji Co. reaching the daily limit [1]. 3. **Computing Hardware Concept** - The computing hardware sector was active, with Huanxu Electronics hitting the daily limit and major optical module companies experiencing collective gains [1]. 4. **Retail and Dairy Concepts** - The retail and dairy sectors saw a recovery, with Zhuangyuan Pasture hitting the daily limit and Li Qun Co. achieving two consecutive trading limits [1]. Notable Stocks - Muxi Co. saw its stock price surge over 700%, surpassing 800 yuan during trading [2]. Sector Declines - The Hainan and military sectors experienced the largest declines in the market [3]. Institutional Insights 1. **Galaxy Securities** - Anticipates that the market will continue to exhibit a volatile structure as the year-end approaches, with a focus on policy dividends and economic trends for the upcoming year [3][9]. 2. **Cinda Securities** - Suggests that style switching may become more pronounced, recommending a focus on low-value sectors and emphasizing the potential for growth in non-bank financials and cyclical stocks [7]. 3. **Zhaoshang Securities** - Projects that investment opportunities in 2026 will revolve around domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance, with a favorable outlook for cyclical styles [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The far - worse - than - expected US August non - farm payroll data makes a September interest rate cut almost certain, but the subsequent interest rate cut debate is more complex. The shift from full - time to part - time jobs indicates economic weakness [8][22]. - For the overall market, although the regulatory authorities have taken actions to cool down, the core drivers of the upward trend have not changed substantially, so the market is unlikely to have a trend - like callback. It is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend later [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economy and Interest Rate Expectations - US August non - farm employment increased by 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%, a nearly four - year high. The June employment data was revised down to negative growth, the first since 2020. The market expects a September interest rate cut, and there are debates about the magnitude and subsequent cuts [7][8][22]. 3.2 Sector - specific Analysis 3.2.1 Index Futures - The upward logic is gradually shifting to earnings. It is recommended to pay attention with a high attention index [9]. 3.2.2 Glass - Short - term rebound is difficult to continue, and it is more likely to have a weak and volatile market. The core pressure comes from the weak real estate background and the high premium of the futures main contract over the spot. It is a volatile market in the medium - term, and caution is needed at low levels [12]. 3.2.3 Natural Rubber - With macro and fundamental support, the market's bullish sentiment is rising. Overseas raw material prices are high, domestic inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to arrival and inventory reduction [14]. 3.2.4 Copper - There is no trend - like opportunity, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to be under pressure. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices [15][27]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has different trends. For example, gold shows an upward trend due to the non - farm data; zinc, tin, etc. are in a range - bound state; aluminum needs to pay attention to the de - stocking inflection point; etc. Specific trends can be found in the corresponding commodity analysis parts [18][21][27].

Core Viewpoint - The market often does not replicate previous fluctuations simply, especially on the third occurrence, leading to unexpected outcomes contrary to common expectations [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with long-term bond yields rising significantly [3][5] - The central bank conducted a 112 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 544.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [3] - The overnight anonymous quote returned to 1.3%, indicating a volatile upward trend in interest rates [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was slightly above expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) was slightly below expectations, contributing to strong performances in both the stock and commodity markets [5][6] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with the stock market showing resilience while the bond market faces pressure [6] Group 3: Trading Performance - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6875% and fluctuated, closing at 1.7175%, reflecting a 2.65 basis point increase [6] - The trading volume for R001 was 74,543.21 million yuan, with a slight decrease of 135.63 million yuan, while R007 saw a volume of 6,707.92 million yuan, increasing by 160.03 million yuan [4]