智通财经APP获悉，近日，Circle(CRCL.US)召开FY25 Q3 财报电话会。三季度公司总收入与储备收益 7.4 亿美元，同比增长 66%;调整后 EBITDA1.66 亿美元，同比增长 78%。利润率达 57%。其他收入显著 增长至 2900 万美元(主要包括区块链服务订阅收入)。三季度USDC 流通量 737 亿美元，同比增长 108%; 链上交易额 9.6 万亿美元，同比增长 580%。平台内 USDC 持有量102 亿美元，显示机构采用率提升。 高层表示，业务进展与竞争优势方面，USDC 网络增长：市场份额持续扩大，第三季度稳定币市场份额 升至 29%;稳定币整体流通量同比增长 59%。跨链传输协议(CCTP)交易量达 313 亿美元，同比增长 640%，占主要桥接服务商总量的 47%(10 月份超 50%)。 多链扩展：新增 5 条支持链，目前覆盖 28 条链，体现对市场中立的承诺。 数字资产市场增长：USDC 在永续合约市场扩张，尤其在币安和超流动性等平台。代币化货币市场基金 USYC 规模达约 10 亿美元，增长超三倍，成为全球第二大代币化货币市场基金。 应用场景拓展：与 Brex、德 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report on Circle (CRCL.US) indicates that the Q2 2025 financial results met expectations, with strong performance in USDC on the platform, leading to an upgrade of the target price for December 2026 from $80 to $89 while maintaining a "reduce" rating [1][2] Financial Performance - Circle's Q2 2025 revenue reached $251 million, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectation of $232 million, primarily due to reduced distribution costs [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was $126 million, surpassing market consensus of $121 million, while GAAP loss was reported at $4.48 [1] - The average USDC balance on the Circle platform was $4.5 billion in Q2 2025, contributing to a total reserve income of $634 million, which exceeded expectations [3] Growth Areas - Strong growth was noted in high-margin areas, particularly in USDC and other revenues, with other income recorded at $24 million, above the expected $17 million [2][3] - The management set guidance for other income for FY 2025 at $75 million to $85 million, raising previous expectations to $86 million due to blockchain collaboration fees and redemption fee growth [3] Technological Developments - Circle announced the launch of Arc, a new Layer-1 blockchain designed for "stablecoin finance," expected to go live in the second half of 2025, enhancing Circle's technological ecosystem [4] - Arc will utilize USDC as its native token to address gas fees and aims to provide a comprehensive solution for liquidity, consensus, and finality [4] Competitive Landscape - The payment sector is characterized by intense competition, leading to "frenemy" relationships among companies [5] - Circle launched the Circle Payment Network (CPN) in Q2 2025, with around 100 companies interested in collaboration, enhancing the use of stablecoins in emerging markets [6] - While CPN is seen as a factor in driving USDC growth, it faces direct competition from Coinbase's payment initiatives, indicating a highly competitive environment [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of US$212.00, down from the previous target of US$305.30 [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Circle's Q2 2025 earnings exceeded basic scenario expectations, driven by a significant increase in USDC issuance, with total revenue and reserve asset income growing by 53% year-on-year to US$658 million [8]. - The stablecoin market is in a critical expansion phase, with projected global market sizes of US$320 billion, US$600 billion, and US$1 trillion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. - Circle's competitive advantages include compliance prioritization, ecosystem neutrality, and technological leadership, which are expected to create a robust network effect and long-term value creation potential [8][16][19]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from US$1,450 million in 2023 to US$8,053 million by 2027, with net profit increasing from US$268 million to US$1,207 million over the same period [23]. - The report anticipates adjusted EBITDA growth of 52% year-on-year, reaching US$126 million in Q2 2025, despite a net loss of US$482 million primarily due to IPO-related expenses [8]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies key catalysts for growth, including the booming stablecoin market, regulatory acceptance, and the accelerated growth of real-world assets (RWA) and cryptocurrency markets [2][21]. - Challenges include tightening regulations, increased competition in the stablecoin space, and lower-than-expected penetration of stablecoins [2][21]. Strategic Focus Areas - Investors are advised to monitor Circle's progress in three critical areas: global compliance infrastructure development, core infrastructure technology research and development, and institutional product innovation and strategic expansion [8].