根据新法律，稳定币发行商被要求用美元或其他高质量流动性资产以一比一的比例为代币提供支持，这 实际上将短期国库券定位为首选抵押品。 在美国债务超过37万亿美元并不断攀升之际，美国国债市场正将Tether和Circle等稳定币发行商视为关 键买家。 最近签署的《GENIUS法案》为该行业建立了指导方针和里程碑式的框架，推动了华尔街对这种与美元 挂钩的数字代币的爆炸性采用。 汇丰银行的分析师早些时候表示，"就特朗普总统让美国成为全球加密货币之都的目标而言，一个监管 良好的稳定币市场可以巩固美元在数字金融世界的主导地位。" 上周二，Tether宣布聘请前白宫加密政策高管博·海因斯（Bo Hines）作为战略顾问，以帮助指导其在美 国的扩张。 尽管发行商的大部分储备是短期美国国债的形式，但该行业尚未被视为国库券市场的主要组成部分。 堪萨斯城联储指出，发行商持有约1250亿美元的国库券，不到6万亿美元未偿国库券总量的2%。相比之 下，保险公司持有的数量大约是其五倍，而最大的私人买家共同基金则持有4.5万亿美元，是其36倍。 2024年，Tether是美国国债的第七大买家，排在英国和新加坡之后。Ark Invest的Lor ...

消息面： 香港金管局、证监会就稳定币概念炒作发声 8 月 14 日，香港金管局及香港证监会就稳定币相关市场波动发布联合声明，指出留意到近期因稳定币牌照等消息，市场上出现相关概念炒作波动。香 港金管局总裁余伟文表示金管局在考虑稳定币发行人牌照申请时将采取稳健及审慎方式，标准门槛较高，初期只会发放数个牌照。 MetaMask 计划月底推出稳定币 mUSD MetaMask 宣布将推出稳定币 mUSD，该稳定币联合 Stripe 旗下 Bridge 与 M^0 协议，并有 Blackstone 提供托管支持，预计 8 月底上线，目标是面向 3000 万月活用户，mUSD 背靠短期美债收益，具备一定收益吸引力。 花旗集团考虑进军稳定币领域 花旗集团计划为稳定币及加密 ETF 提供托管、支付与美元兑换服务，甚至在考虑发行自有稳定币。该消息显示传统金融巨头正加快对加密市场的布 局，有望推动稳定币市场的进一步规范化。 高盛称稳定币市场或达数万亿美元规模 8 月 21 日消息，高盛在一份研究报告中表示，稳定币市场正处在新一轮淘金热开端，潜在总市场规模可达数万亿美元。分析师 Will Nance 认为 USDC 将受益于市场份 ...

[Table_Title] 每周报告汇总 2025年8月21日 [Table_Summary] 目 录 公司报告：Circle Internet Group(CRCL US)：Web3 基建先锋：持续进击_20250813 重申 Circle"买入"评级，目标价下调至 212 美元。2025Q2 业绩超预期，收入同比增长 53%至 6.58 亿美 元，主要受益于 USDC 发行量增长；净亏损 4.82 亿美元（含 IPO 费用），但核心业务稳健，调整后 EBITDA 增 52%至 1.26 亿美元。预计 2025-2027 年收入增速 60.3%/76.7%/69.5%，净利润增速 88.9%/102.5%/102.7%。稳定币市场未来三年规模或达 3,200 亿/6,000 亿/1 万亿美元，Circle 凭借合规优 势（全球牌照）、生态中立性（获主流平台采用）及技术领先（跨链互操作性）构建护城河。催化剂包括 稳定币市场扩张、监管认可及 RWA 增长；风险为监管收紧、竞争加剧及渗透率不及预期。 公司报告：海天国际(01882 HK)：供应链迁移推动海外注塑机需求_20250820 我们上调至"买入"，并上调 ...

Group 1 - JPYC, a Japanese fintech startup, has received regulatory approval to issue Japan's first yen-pegged stablecoin, marking Japan's entry into the global stablecoin competition [1] - The stablecoin will be fully convertible with the yen and backed by domestic savings and Japanese government bonds (JGB), with plans to issue 1 trillion yen (approximately $6.81 billion) worth of JPYC within three years [1] - JPYC aims to attract institutional investors such as hedge funds and family offices, with applications in arbitrage trading, cross-border remittances, and corporate payments [1] Group 2 - The approval from the Financial Services Agency (FSA) is based on the revised Payment Services Act effective in 2023, which provides a regulatory framework for electronic payment tools convertible with the yen [2] - JPYC will register as a money transfer service provider and plans to start selling its stablecoin products in the coming weeks, generating revenue through interest income from holding more JGB instead of charging transaction fees [2] - Blockchain-based stablecoins are gaining global attention for their fast and low-cost transaction characteristics, with the U.S. also moving towards stablecoin regulations to promote their use in daily payments and settlements [2] Group 3 - The launch of a yen stablecoin could bring fee income in areas such as custody services and collateral management for the banking industry, with several fintech companies expressing optimism about domestic stablecoins [3] - Concerns remain regarding the price volatility of stablecoins and the assumption that one stablecoin will always equal one yen, despite stablecoins typically being less volatile than cryptocurrencies [3] - Anti-money laundering measures will be a focal point if stablecoins are used or traded by unspecified parties, especially in cases of remittances to recipients not subject to KYC restrictions [3]

[Table_Title] Company Report: Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) 中文版 公司报告：Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) Chinese version hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk (852)2509 5317 [Table_Summary] Web3基建先锋：持续进击 催化剂：1）稳定币市场蓬勃发展；2）监管机构对稳定币的接受度；3）现实世界 资产（RWA）和加密货币市场加速增长。 风险：1）监管收紧；2）稳定币竞争加剧；3）稳定币渗透低于预期。 | [Table_Rank] Rating: | Buy | | --- | --- | | | Maintained | | 评级： | 买入 (维持) | | [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: | US$212.00 | | | US$305.30 | | Share price 股价： | US$163.210 | Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] (100.0) 0.0 100.0 ...

Core Insights - Circle's primary revenue sources are reserve income from holding cash-equivalent assets and monetizing transaction processes and network infrastructure, with the latter expected to grow significantly as network adoption increases [4][33]. - The company plans to launch Arc, a proprietary blockchain designed for stablecoin financial applications, which will use USDC as the native asset for transaction fees [3][7][27]. - Circle's competitive advantage lies in its scalable model and inherent operational leverage, supported by a strong liquidity infrastructure and significant network effects in the stablecoin market [6][25][31]. Financial Performance - Circle reported a 53% year-over-year increase in total revenue and reserve income, reaching $658 million, driven by a substantial rise in USDC circulation [3][34]. - The company experienced a 5.4-fold increase in USDC on-chain transaction volume, indicating robust growth in its stablecoin network [34]. - Other revenue sources grew to $24 million, primarily from subscription and service income related to blockchain partnerships, reflecting a 3.5-fold increase [35]. Market Position and Strategy - The stablecoin market is characterized as a "winner-takes-all" environment, with Circle benefiting from deep liquidity infrastructure and a strong competitive moat [6][25]. - The passage of the GENIUS Act is seen as a catalyst for mainstream financial institutions to accelerate the adoption of stablecoin technology [10][25]. - Circle's cautious acquisition strategy focuses on organic growth and small strategic acquisitions rather than large, complex mergers [12][13][56]. Product Development and Partnerships - The upcoming Arc blockchain aims to support various financial applications, including payments and capital markets, and will provide a low-cost, predictable fee structure [27][28]. - Circle has expanded partnerships with major financial institutions and payment providers, enhancing USDC's utility and integration into various payment networks [11][30]. - The company is actively developing its Circle Payment Network (CPN) to facilitate international fund transfers and other payment types, with significant interest from financial institutions [26][49]. Future Outlook - Circle anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 40% for USDC over the coming years, with other revenue expected to range between $75 million and $85 million in 2025 [36]. - The company is focused on expanding its platform capabilities and partnerships to drive long-term growth and profitability [36].

Core Insights - Circle, known as the "first stock of stablecoins," reported a significant increase in total revenue and reserve income, driven by a substantial growth in USDC circulation, with total revenue and reserve income rising 53% to $658 million [1][22] - The company plans to launch a self-developed blockchain named Arc in the second half of the year, designed specifically for stablecoin finance, with USDC as the native asset for transaction fees [1][4] - CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen expressed confidence in the company's profitability outlook, citing network effects and the growth of USDC holdings as key drivers for long-term support of RLDC profit margins [1][22] Revenue Generation - Circle generates revenue primarily through two methods: reserve income from holding cash-equivalent assets to support stablecoins and monetizing certain transaction processes and network infrastructure elements [2][21] - Although the second revenue stream is currently small, it is growing and has high profit margins, with the potential for rapid expansion as network adoption increases [2][21] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is characterized as a "winner-takes-all" environment, with liquidity and utility driving growth, making it difficult for competitors to replicate Circle's deep liquidity infrastructure [3][14] - Circle's core model anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for USDC over the coming years, supported by strong network effects and operational leverage [3][24] Arc Blockchain Launch - The upcoming Arc blockchain represents a strategic shift for Circle in the stablecoin infrastructure space, designed to support various financial applications and provide a robust platform for mainstream financial institutions [4][16] - Arc will operate as a new layer-1 blockchain compatible with Ethereum infrastructure, aiming to facilitate stablecoin financial applications, payments, foreign exchange, and capital markets [4][16] Institutional Adoption - The passage of the GENIUS Act has catalyzed mainstream financial institutions to accelerate their exploration of stablecoin technology, with Circle establishing partnerships with banks and payment infrastructure providers [6][14] - Major payment networks like Visa and Mastercard have announced plans to expand the availability of USDC on their networks, further driving adoption [6][14] M&A Strategy - Circle's co-founder Jeremy Allaire emphasized a cautious approach to mergers and acquisitions, preferring organic growth and strategic small-scale acquisitions over large, complex deals [7][21] - The company aims to integrate new capabilities that align with its product requirements rather than simply adding additional business lines [7][21] Financial Performance - Circle's total revenue and reserve income for the second quarter reached $658 million, with a 53% year-over-year increase, despite accounting profits being impacted by significant non-cash expenses [1][22] - The company reported a 5.4-fold increase in USDC on-chain transaction volume, reaching nearly $6 trillion, indicating strong growth in platform usage [12][22] Future Outlook - Circle anticipates a compound annual growth rate for USDC circulation of 40%, with expectations for other revenue streams to range between $75 million and $85 million in 2025 [24][25] - The company is focused on long-term success and is investing in key areas to build its platform and global partnerships, projecting adjusted operating expenses between $475 million and $490 million for 2025 [24][25]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - USDC in circulation grew to $61.3 billion at June 30, representing a 90% year-over-year increase, and reached $65.2 billion by August 10, marking a 6.4% increase since quarter-end [7][28] - Total revenue and reserve income increased by 53% year-over-year to $658 million in Q2, while total distribution transaction and other costs rose by 64% year-over-year to $407 million [28][29] - Adjusted EBITDA was $126 million in the quarter, up 52% year-over-year, resulting in a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - USDC on-chain transaction volume grew 5.4 times year-over-year to nearly $6 trillion, with $2.4 trillion in transactions recorded in July alone [7][27] - CCTP volume also showed significant growth, up 4.1 times year-over-year, indicating the importance of blockchain interoperability [27] - Other revenue increased to $24 million in Q2, up 3.5 times year-over-year, primarily driven by a $13 million increase in subscription and services revenue [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total addressable market for stablecoins is considered massive, with dollar stablecoins representing only 1% of the U.S. M2 money supply [9] - The company operates the largest regulated stablecoin network globally, with significant growth driven by partnerships with major financial institutions and technology companies [11][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build the largest stablecoin network, leveraging its platform to support developers, enterprises, and institutions [24] - The launch of the Circle Payments Network (CPN) is a key initiative to transform international money movement, with active payment corridors already established in several countries [13][58] - The introduction of ARC, a new Layer 1 blockchain, is designed to support stablecoin finance and enhance transaction efficiency [15][93] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the rapid expansion of commercial opportunities post-IPO and the positive impact of the Genius Act on stablecoin adoption [12][99] - The company anticipates a conservative multi-year growth rate of 40% CAGR for USDC, reflecting the increasing demand for stablecoins across various sectors [31][108] - Management emphasized the importance of building strong partnerships and the need for financial institutions to integrate new technologies, which may take time [100] Other Important Information - The company has committed to corporate impact by reserving shares for future donations to its foundation [9] - The regulatory environment is seen as a significant tailwind for the company's growth, particularly with the passage of the Genius Act [12][100] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on ARC and its revenue model - Management expressed excitement about ARC and its potential to underpin stablecoin finance, with gas fees in USDC expected to become a revenue source [35][39] Question: Details on USYC and partnership with Binance - The expanded partnership with Binance includes deeper integration of Circle's wallet technology and aims to promote USDC and USYC as yield-bearing collateral [40][44] Question: Understanding transaction volume versus circulation - Management explained that the high velocity of USDC transactions reflects improvements in blockchain technology and growing payment utility [50][53] Question: Milestones for CPN and its relationship with ARC - The focus is on activating more payment corridors and developing self-service tools for institutions to integrate with CPN [58][60] Question: Payment networks and competition - Management views USDC as a market-neutral infrastructure that supports various payment networks, emphasizing the importance of growing utility and distribution [64][66] Question: Adoption of USDC in remittance - The company is seeing increasing demand for USDC in remittance, with partnerships expanding in both consumer and B2B segments [78][80] Question: Partnership with OKX - The partnership with OKX aims to enhance liquidity and promote USDC to a large user base, contributing to the growth of the network [82][86] Question: Distribution and gas fees for ARC - Management discussed the goal of having a distributed network of professional validators for ARC, ensuring low and predictable transaction costs [90][92] Question: Impact of the Genius Act on growth - Management noted a significant increase in institutional interest post-Genius Act, which is expected to drive further adoption of USDC [95][100]

Group 1 - Circle Internet Group, known as the "first stock of stablecoins," reported total revenue and reserve income of $658 million in the second quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 53% [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $126 million, exceeding market expectations of $121.1 million [1]

Group 1: A-shares Performance and Economic Data - A-shares have shown decent performance with significant gains, but manufacturing PMI has remained low, at 49.3 in July, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] - The non-manufacturing PMI is just above 50, suggesting a lack of clear recovery signals in the overall economy [4] - Real estate sales continue to decline sharply, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [4] Group 2: Opportunities and Risks in the Innovative Drug Sector - The pricing policy for innovative drugs under medical insurance is becoming more flexible, benefiting innovative drug companies, but stock prices have already risen significantly in anticipation of this news [5] - Current valuations in the innovative drug sector are high, leading to potential risks of chasing prices [5] Group 3: Policy Signals and the Photovoltaic Industry - Recent government signals regarding "anti-involution" can be seen as a new round of supply-side reform, particularly affecting competitive sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [6] - If policies are implemented, leading companies in the photovoltaic sector may benefit, and the sector is currently in a phase of early positioning [7] Group 4: Value Positioning in the Liquor Industry - Investment in the liquor sector is driven by low valuations, with a percentile of only 3%, indicating suppressed expectations [8] - Despite being considered a "sunset industry," low-valuation defensive stocks like liquor can provide a buffer during corrections in high-valuation growth sectors [8] Group 5: Market Reactions to Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulations - The implementation of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong has led to significant declines for non-compliant companies, reflecting a market correction following the announcement [9] - High-yield stocks in the Hang Seng Index have performed well but are now at historical high valuations, suggesting reliance on momentum rather than fundamental support [9] Group 6: Adjustments in the CSI 300 and Bull Market Assessment - The recent significant adjustments in the CSI 300 are typical in a bull market, with a preference for viewing this as a bull market correction rather than the start of a bear market [10] - The banking index has reached a new high since October last year, indicating support from the financial sector, which may lead to further gains in other industries [10] Group 7: Dividend Portfolio Valuation and Strategy - The dividend sector has shown stable performance but is at a high valuation, with a percentile of 98% and a price-to-book ratio of 81% [11] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions, with suggestions to hold or reduce exposure based on individual circumstances [11] Group 8: Hang Seng Index Performance and Positioning Advice - The Hang Seng Index has shown strong performance, with a valuation percentile of 79%, slightly lower than the dividend sector [12] - Investors should be cautious of high valuation risks and adjust their positions flexibly based on technical trends and valuation levels [12] Group 9: Conclusion on Current Market Environment - The current macroeconomic environment is complex, with a divergence between A-share performance and economic fundamentals, necessitating a more cautious and flexible investment approach [13] - Sectors like photovoltaics and liquor have unique characteristics worth monitoring, while the CSI 300 and dividend portfolios, despite high valuations, still have potential for growth [13]