稳定币发行商Circle正在探索一种此前在加密圈颇具争议的新机制——使其代币USDC的交易在特定情况下具备可逆性。 Circle总裁Heath Tarbert在上周四（9月25日）接受《金融时报》采访时表示，公司正在研究一种机制，使交易在发生欺诈或黑客事件时可以"逆转"，但同时 仍保持结算的最终性。但Tarbert同时也坦言，在保证交易即时结算的最终性与实现交易可逆性之间，存在一定的"内在矛盾"。 长期以来，加密领域一直强调与传统金融的差异，而交易不可篡改性被视为区块链的核心特征。对于部分坚定的加密货币拥护者而言，Circle的探索几乎具 有"异端"色彩。一位知名风险投资人甚至直言，将Circle此类可逆交易机制称作区块链的尝试，具有一定的"冒犯性"。 随着银行和信用卡公司开始探索以稳定币为基础的跨境支付，消费者保护的需求也随之上升。在这一背景下，Circle提出可逆交易的尝试虽然引发争议，却 也体现了业界对区块链必须适应主流金融要求的日益认可。 事实上，可逆交易在实际案例中已经显示出其潜在价值。5月22日，去中心化交易所Cetus遭遇黑客攻击，损失超过2.2亿美元数字资产，其中验证者成功冻 结了1.62亿美 ...

Group 1 - Circle is exploring the possibility of introducing a "reversible" mechanism for token transactions to address fraud or hacking scenarios while maintaining finality in settlements [1] - The concept of reversibility contrasts with the blockchain principle of immutability, which ensures transaction records are unalterable [1] - Circle's USDC stablecoin currently has a circulation scale of $74 billion [1] Group 2 - In June, Circle raised $1.1 billion through an IPO, with the issuance price exceeding market expectations [2] - Since the beginning of the year, Circle's stock price has surged by 324% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report on Circle (CRCL.US) indicates that the Q2 2025 financial results met expectations, with strong performance in USDC on the platform, leading to an upgrade of the target price for December 2026 from $80 to $89 while maintaining a "reduce" rating [1][2] Financial Performance - Circle's Q2 2025 revenue reached $251 million, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectation of $232 million, primarily due to reduced distribution costs [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was $126 million, surpassing market consensus of $121 million, while GAAP loss was reported at $4.48 [1] - The average USDC balance on the Circle platform was $4.5 billion in Q2 2025, contributing to a total reserve income of $634 million, which exceeded expectations [3] Growth Areas - Strong growth was noted in high-margin areas, particularly in USDC and other revenues, with other income recorded at $24 million, above the expected $17 million [2][3] - The management set guidance for other income for FY 2025 at $75 million to $85 million, raising previous expectations to $86 million due to blockchain collaboration fees and redemption fee growth [3] Technological Developments - Circle announced the launch of Arc, a new Layer-1 blockchain designed for "stablecoin finance," expected to go live in the second half of 2025, enhancing Circle's technological ecosystem [4] - Arc will utilize USDC as its native token to address gas fees and aims to provide a comprehensive solution for liquidity, consensus, and finality [4] Competitive Landscape - The payment sector is characterized by intense competition, leading to "frenemy" relationships among companies [5] - Circle launched the Circle Payment Network (CPN) in Q2 2025, with around 100 companies interested in collaboration, enhancing the use of stablecoins in emerging markets [6] - While CPN is seen as a factor in driving USDC growth, it faces direct competition from Coinbase's payment initiatives, indicating a highly competitive environment [6]

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group reported strong Q2 results with USDC circulation reaching $65.2 billion, a 90% year-over-year increase, driving total revenue and reserve income to $658 million, up 53% [1][3][4] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in June established a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, benefiting compliant issuers like Circle and marking a shift in the competitive landscape towards compliance capabilities [1][7][9] Financial Performance - Total revenue and reserve income for Q2 reached $658 million, a 53% increase year-over-year, with reserve income growing 16.1% to $634 million [3][4] - The company reported a net loss of $482 million, primarily due to one-time non-cash expenses related to IPO stock incentives and convertible debt valuation changes [3][4][8] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 52% to $126 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 50% [4][8] Operational Highlights - USDC circulation reached $61.3 billion by the end of Q2, with a 90% year-over-year growth, and the market share increased to 28% [5][6] - Circle's self-developed Arc blockchain upgraded USDC to a "native gas," enabling faster cross-chain settlements and reducing transaction costs by 70% [2][6] - The Circle Payment Network (CPN) has opened four payment channels, with over 100 financial institutions in the onboarding process [5][6] Regulatory Environment - The GENIUS Act provides a federal licensing framework for stablecoins, requiring 100% reserves and regular audits, which increases operational costs but enhances compliance [7][8][9] - Tether, holding 65% of the market share, announced a transition to 100% cash and short-term government bonds by the end of 2025, responding to regulatory pressures [1][9] Competitive Landscape - The focus of competition in the stablecoin market is shifting from regulatory arbitrage to compliance and technological integration [2][7] - Circle's compliance advantages and technological innovations position it favorably against competitors like Tether and emerging players such as PayPal [9]

Core Insights - Circle's primary revenue sources are reserve income from holding cash-equivalent assets and monetizing transaction processes and network infrastructure, with the latter expected to grow significantly as network adoption increases [4][33]. - The company plans to launch Arc, a proprietary blockchain designed for stablecoin financial applications, which will use USDC as the native asset for transaction fees [3][7][27]. - Circle's competitive advantage lies in its scalable model and inherent operational leverage, supported by a strong liquidity infrastructure and significant network effects in the stablecoin market [6][25][31]. Financial Performance - Circle reported a 53% year-over-year increase in total revenue and reserve income, reaching $658 million, driven by a substantial rise in USDC circulation [3][34]. - The company experienced a 5.4-fold increase in USDC on-chain transaction volume, indicating robust growth in its stablecoin network [34]. - Other revenue sources grew to $24 million, primarily from subscription and service income related to blockchain partnerships, reflecting a 3.5-fold increase [35]. Market Position and Strategy - The stablecoin market is characterized as a "winner-takes-all" environment, with Circle benefiting from deep liquidity infrastructure and a strong competitive moat [6][25]. - The passage of the GENIUS Act is seen as a catalyst for mainstream financial institutions to accelerate the adoption of stablecoin technology [10][25]. - Circle's cautious acquisition strategy focuses on organic growth and small strategic acquisitions rather than large, complex mergers [12][13][56]. Product Development and Partnerships - The upcoming Arc blockchain aims to support various financial applications, including payments and capital markets, and will provide a low-cost, predictable fee structure [27][28]. - Circle has expanded partnerships with major financial institutions and payment providers, enhancing USDC's utility and integration into various payment networks [11][30]. - The company is actively developing its Circle Payment Network (CPN) to facilitate international fund transfers and other payment types, with significant interest from financial institutions [26][49]. Future Outlook - Circle anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 40% for USDC over the coming years, with other revenue expected to range between $75 million and $85 million in 2025 [36]. - The company is focused on expanding its platform capabilities and partnerships to drive long-term growth and profitability [36].

Core Insights - Circle, known as the "first stock of stablecoins," reported a significant increase in total revenue and reserve income, driven by a substantial growth in USDC circulation, with total revenue and reserve income rising 53% to $658 million [1][22] - The company plans to launch a self-developed blockchain named Arc in the second half of the year, designed specifically for stablecoin finance, with USDC as the native asset for transaction fees [1][4] - CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen expressed confidence in the company's profitability outlook, citing network effects and the growth of USDC holdings as key drivers for long-term support of RLDC profit margins [1][22] Revenue Generation - Circle generates revenue primarily through two methods: reserve income from holding cash-equivalent assets to support stablecoins and monetizing certain transaction processes and network infrastructure elements [2][21] - Although the second revenue stream is currently small, it is growing and has high profit margins, with the potential for rapid expansion as network adoption increases [2][21] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is characterized as a "winner-takes-all" environment, with liquidity and utility driving growth, making it difficult for competitors to replicate Circle's deep liquidity infrastructure [3][14] - Circle's core model anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for USDC over the coming years, supported by strong network effects and operational leverage [3][24] Arc Blockchain Launch - The upcoming Arc blockchain represents a strategic shift for Circle in the stablecoin infrastructure space, designed to support various financial applications and provide a robust platform for mainstream financial institutions [4][16] - Arc will operate as a new layer-1 blockchain compatible with Ethereum infrastructure, aiming to facilitate stablecoin financial applications, payments, foreign exchange, and capital markets [4][16] Institutional Adoption - The passage of the GENIUS Act has catalyzed mainstream financial institutions to accelerate their exploration of stablecoin technology, with Circle establishing partnerships with banks and payment infrastructure providers [6][14] - Major payment networks like Visa and Mastercard have announced plans to expand the availability of USDC on their networks, further driving adoption [6][14] M&A Strategy - Circle's co-founder Jeremy Allaire emphasized a cautious approach to mergers and acquisitions, preferring organic growth and strategic small-scale acquisitions over large, complex deals [7][21] - The company aims to integrate new capabilities that align with its product requirements rather than simply adding additional business lines [7][21] Financial Performance - Circle's total revenue and reserve income for the second quarter reached $658 million, with a 53% year-over-year increase, despite accounting profits being impacted by significant non-cash expenses [1][22] - The company reported a 5.4-fold increase in USDC on-chain transaction volume, reaching nearly $6 trillion, indicating strong growth in platform usage [12][22] Future Outlook - Circle anticipates a compound annual growth rate for USDC circulation of 40%, with expectations for other revenue streams to range between $75 million and $85 million in 2025 [24][25] - The company is focused on long-term success and is investing in key areas to build its platform and global partnerships, projecting adjusted operating expenses between $475 million and $490 million for 2025 [24][25]