Core Insights - On Holding AG (ONON) has shown exceptional performance in the athletic footwear and apparel market, with a 34.5% increase in stock price over the past month, raising questions about its current valuation and investment potential [1][5][17] Performance Overview - ONON has outperformed the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which rose by 17.5%, and the broader Retail and Wholesale sector, which declined by 1.2% [2] - The stock closed at $47.02, still below its 52-week high of $64.05 reached on January 30, 2025 [3] Sales Growth - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales increased by 27.6%, while apparel sales surged by 86.9%, with over 1 million units sold in a single quarter [5][8] - APAC sales grew by 109.2% in Q3, contributing nearly 20% of total sales, driven by strong demand in China, Korea, and Japan [5][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting towards higher-margin DTC channels, which now account for 39.6% of total net sales, up from 38.8% the previous year [7] - The apparel segment is viewed as a significant growth avenue, expanding the total addressable market and reducing reliance on seasonal running shoe sales [8] Market Positioning - ONON maintains its premium brand status through elite athlete endorsements and cultural relevance, supported by a strong innovation pipeline [10] - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting net sales to grow by 34% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis, up from a previous estimate of 31% [13] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has been revised upward, reflecting positive sentiment around the company [14] - ONON's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 28.11, indicating a premium valuation compared to the industry average of 18.03 [15][16] Investment Outlook - Despite the recent stock rally, ONON is positioned as a premium, innovation-driven brand with a strong DTC channel and expanding apparel business, making it a compelling investment opportunity [17][19]

Market Overview - Overseas market risk appetite has rebounded, while A/H market sentiment has declined as supportive consumption policies for next year have yet to materialize[1] - Weekly performance of sectors shows overseas sportswear leading with a 2.9% increase, followed by overseas cosmetics at 2.0%[11] - Year-to-date performance highlights gold and jewelry sector leading with a 138.2% increase, while overseas sportswear has declined by 13.8%[11] Sector Performance - The overseas sportswear sector's expected PE for 2025 is 31.1 times, which is 58% of the past five-year average[14] - The domestic sportswear sector's expected PE for 2025 is 14.2 times, representing 74% of the past five-year average[14] - The gold and jewelry sector's expected PE for 2025 is 23.7 times, which is 45% of the past five-year average[14] Key Stock Ratings - Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Haier Smart Home are rated as "Outperform"[1] - Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral," while other stocks like Anta Sports and Gree Electric are also rated "Outperform"[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has surged, maintaining high expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[6] - The core CPI data for September was reported at 2.8%, the highest since April, aligning with market expectations[6] Risks - Potential risks include changes in consumer and economic environments, intensified market competition, and tariff risks[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and strategic positioning of On, a high-end sports brand, emphasizing its unique market approach and innovative technologies that differentiate it from traditional competitors [6][8][12]. Group 1: Brand Positioning and Strategy - On has positioned itself as a high-end brand, maintaining pricing power and avoiding discounting strategies, which is reflected in its gross margin consistently above 60% [8][9]. - The brand does not offer "downgraded" versions of its shoes, focusing instead on maintaining a premium product line that appeals to both elite athletes and everyday consumers [9][10]. - On's apparel segment has seen significant growth, with a 100.2% increase in sales, indicating successful market penetration and the attraction of new consumer demographics [12][13]. Group 2: Market Performance and Growth - Over the past three quarters, On's global revenue has increased by over 30%, with the Asia-Pacific region experiencing growth exceeding 100% [6][8]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.5 billion Swiss francs by 2026, with China identified as a crucial market for achieving this goal [8][12]. - On's strategy includes a controlled expansion of retail locations, with plans to open only 20 to 25 new stores globally in the coming year, reflecting a cautious yet confident growth approach [8][12]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - On's innovative technologies, such as the LightSpray™ manufacturing process, allow for efficient production and high-quality products, enhancing its competitive edge [10][18]. - The brand's commitment to athlete feedback and product innovation is central to its growth strategy, ensuring that products meet the needs of both elite and casual runners [17][19]. - The introduction of new products, like the Cloudmonster Hyper, showcases On's focus on expanding its technology application across different shoe categories [10][12].