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18位消费创始人和投资人这样观测潮水的方向|2026前瞻
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-10 05:49
有关四个消费板块的关键判断。 热闹之二则是线下零售巨变。以永辉为代表的传统超市投入"胖改",是过去一年里颇受行业关注的事情。 AI也是绕不开的关键词。珞博智能的"芙崽Fuzozo"在预售阶段"10分钟破千单",并连续获得金沙江创投、红杉中国等机构的投资。能听、会说、能看、 会认的AI在重塑着体验边界,也在验证需求的真伪。 2026开年,港股递表公司里又多了卡牌公司Suplay、社区生鲜公司钱大妈等的身影。拥有2万家的鸣鸣很忙在港上市,市值逼近千亿,成为中国最大的 休闲食品饮料零售公司。 作者 | 李小霞、任彩茹 编辑 | 乔芊 2025年,消费赛道在经历过一段时长的冰冻后,重回火 热。 上市,是热闹之源。消费IP领域,递表者不乏TOPTOY、52TOYS 、卡游等公司;餐饮公司,蜜雪、古茗、霸王茶姬、沪上阿姨、绿茶、COMMUNE、 比格披萨等成功上市或递表。 其中消费IP最受瞩目。泡泡玛特缔造了属于自己的商业传奇,4000亿市值,点燃行业一把火。名创优品叶国富将孵化自有IP视为重任,并将旗下TOP TOY拆分上市;在一级市场,杰森娱乐、闪魂、tnt、超级元气等获得融资。 人们总是对新年怀有期待,因为可以将过 ...
语音问一问上线,小红书为何发力问搜?
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-09 13:30
社区真人经验是差异化优势。 文 | 陈曦 从搜索到问搜 在搜索产品的功能上,小红书又往前进了一步。 据媒体报道,1月27日,小红书正式上线语音问一问功能,用户可以在搜索发起页点击"按住提问、有问必答"的图标,通过语音提问。 具体来说,当用户打开小红书,找到搜索栏,会发现在以往的文字检索下方,多出了一个语音提问按键,只要点击,就能像日常对话一般,随问随搜随答。 搜索结果不仅会呈现相关笔记,还会在搜索页顶部显示,由问一问根据真人经验笔记总结的答案。 例如,按住语音提问,"怎么和理发师说,只剪一点点"——这是个相当有难度的提问,每个人的头发长度不同,对"一点点"的理解也不同。 | | 搜索笔记,用户和商品 | | [c] 搜索 | | 怎么和理发师说只剪一点点 3 搜索 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 猜你想搜 | | | 已隐藏 9 | | 全部 = 用户 商品 地点 群聊 | | | | | | | 怎么和理发师说只剪一点点 | | | | | | | 想让理发师只剪一点点,关键在于把"一点点" 这个模糊概念,变成理发师能听懂的具体指令。 直接说"剪一点点"很 ...
一档女性播客走红后,意外带出一家身世不凡的奢侈品牌
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-08 03:51
高度本地化的女性叙事,能否与「意大利血统」相融? 作者 | 贺哲馨 编辑 | 乔芊 很多听众第一次点开《岩中花述》时,并不知道它与任何品牌有关。节目往往从一个极为具体的生活 细节开始:一次职业选择的迟疑,一段关系的瓦解,或者身体在中年阶段发出的信号。鲁豫的提问节 奏缓慢,很少追问结果,而是停留在过程本身。正是在这样的叙述中,《岩中花述》逐渐积累起稳定 的听众群体。 直到听众数量不断扩大,一些人才在片头的固定口播中意识到,这档播客背后站着一个反复出现的品 牌名称——GIADA。 从表面看,GIADA就像是另一个小众设计师品牌而已——它们来自法国或意大利、设计师名声在外, 精工细作且足够昂贵(一件成衣的均价在1-4万余元),可以与香奈儿、爱马仕和LVMH帝国的子品 牌们在比邻而居。但实际上,GIADA在中国之外几乎没有门店,它真正的所有者是一位来自深圳的奢 侈品大亨。 2002 年,赵一铮在深圳成立广东深圳宏钰高级时装股份有限公司,从事奢侈品代理业务。2005 年,宏钰通过投资方式进入 GIADA,并将品牌引入中国。此后,GIADA 在中国的市场运营、渠道管 理与品牌推广,均由宏钰主导。 嘉宾构成开始改变。知名度 ...
千问的1000万杯奶茶:阿里大发赛博鸡蛋始末
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-07 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a recent surge in AI-driven marketing campaigns, particularly focusing on the "free tea" promotion by Qianwen, which led to overwhelming demand and system failures, highlighting the challenges and strategies in the competitive landscape of AI and consumer engagement [4][9][21]. Group 1: Event Overview - On February 6, a significant spike in orders for Qianwen's tea promotion resulted in over 2 million orders within a short time frame, leading to system crashes and operational chaos in stores [5][6]. - The promotion was characterized by a lack of preparation and communication among merchants, resulting in confusion and operational strain as they scrambled to manage the influx of orders [7][8]. - Despite the initial chaos, the promotion was deemed successful, with Qianwen reporting over 10 million orders by the afternoon of the same day, and some tea brands experiencing a daily order increase of over 200% [8][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The article notes that Alibaba's Qianwen aims to integrate various services (like Taobao, Hema, and Fliggy) into a comprehensive ecosystem, positioning itself as a super entry point for consumer needs [9][10]. - The marketing strategy employed by Qianwen, including substantial subsidies and promotions, reflects a broader trend in the industry where companies are racing to capture consumer attention amid fierce competition [15][16]. - The urgency of the campaign was partly a response to Tencent's earlier announcements of significant cash incentives, indicating a competitive pressure to attract users quickly [15][16]. Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Behavior - The promotion's success relied heavily on immediate incentives rather than organic consumer demand, raising questions about the sustainability of such marketing tactics [22][23]. - Qianwen's approach contrasts with competitors by emphasizing intelligence and reliability, aiming to shift consumer perception from merely chatting with AI to using it for practical tasks [22][23]. - The article highlights the ongoing challenge for AI models to truly understand consumer preferences, suggesting that while immediate engagement can be achieved, long-term user retention may depend on the AI's ability to adapt and learn from individual user behaviors [23][24]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article suggests that while Qianwen's promotional tactics may yield short-term gains, the long-term success will depend on the ability to foster genuine consumer habits and preferences towards AI shopping [22][24]. - There is a recognition that the current AI capabilities may not fully meet the nuanced demands of consumers, indicating a potential gap that needs to be addressed for sustained engagement [23][24]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards marketing strategies as companies prioritize user acquisition over product perfection, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [18][19][20].
中国区业绩大涨,全球市值第二美妆公司迎来黎明前夜
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-06 13:18
Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder is undergoing a gradual but clear recovery, as evidenced by its latest financial report showing a net sales increase of $4.229 billion (approximately 29.353 billion RMB), a year-on-year growth of 6%, and a net profit turnaround from a loss of $590 million (approximately 4.095 billion RMB) in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year to a profit of $162 million (approximately 1.124 billion RMB), marking a significant improvement of 127% [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company has achieved double-digit growth for the second consecutive quarter, with skincare, makeup, fragrance, and scalp care all showing growth, and the latter three categories returning to profitability [3]. - For the fiscal year 2026, Estée Lauder anticipates a return to positive revenue growth, projected between 0% and 3% [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the company's stock price has increased by 46.59% [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The recovery strategy, termed "Beauty Reimagined," focuses on cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, outsourcing non-core services, and divesting underperforming brands while reallocating resources to brands and products with growth potential [5]. - Deciem, a Canadian skincare group, has seen sales surpassing the total of all other skincare brands under Estée Lauder, marking a historic first for the company [5]. - The Ordinary, a key brand under Deciem, has been able to innovate products at a faster pace than traditional brands within the group, launching nine new products in the past year [6]. Brand Development - The luxury skincare brand La Mer is transitioning from a single star product to a more comprehensive high-end skincare system, with an increased pace of new product launches [7]. - Estée Lauder has significantly increased its investment in e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Shopify, TikTok, and Douyin, adopting an aggressive advertising strategy that matches advertising spend to revenue [7]. - Online sales now contribute nearly one-third of the company's total revenue, an increase of approximately 3 percentage points from 2024 [7]. Market Expansion - The company is seeking to rebalance growth by expanding in the Americas and emerging markets without sacrificing its position in the Chinese market [8]. - Estée Lauder has invested in two local Chinese brands, CODEMINT and Melt Season, and is consciously reducing its reliance on duty-free channels in China and South Korea [9]. Asset Management - The company is divesting brands such as Too Faced, Smashbox, and Dr. Jart due to declining growth potential in the competitive market [10]. - The estimated valuation for these assets is in the low nine-digit dollar range, significantly below historical acquisition costs [10]. Investor Focus - Investors are primarily concerned with the company's ability to achieve moderate sales growth without exacerbating balance sheet pressures and the timeline for a return to profitability [11]. - The recovery path is expected to require time, patience, and consistent execution [12].
从美妆到蜜薯,小红书用“真诚分享”开启全品类电商新叙事
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-06 13:18
Core Viewpoint - Xiaohongshu is evolving into an effective "connector" between quality products and consumers, leveraging its community-driven approach to enhance e-commerce opportunities beyond traditional categories like beauty and fashion [2][18][22]. Group 1: Live Streaming and E-commerce Expansion - A recent agricultural live stream on Xiaohongshu featured actress Zhao Lusi as the "agricultural recommendation officer," promoting local products like Sichuan bamboo fungus and honey sweet potatoes, which reflects the platform's shift towards a broader e-commerce narrative [3][5]. - The live stream attracted nearly 9 million viewers and sold over 820,000 orders, including 1,159 tons of fresh fruit and over 400,000 agricultural products, showcasing significant commercial potential [4][9]. - This event marks a pivotal moment for Xiaohongshu, indicating that its e-commerce capabilities extend beyond beauty and fashion to include fresh agricultural products, thus broadening its market reach [5][12]. Group 2: Unique Selling Proposition - The "zero commission" model during the live stream allowed producers to retain more profit, encouraging them to participate actively and ensuring product quality [9][20]. - The community atmosphere of genuine sharing on Xiaohongshu fosters trust, making consumers more willing to try unfamiliar local products [14][22]. - The storytelling approach used in the live stream, which highlighted the origins and production processes of the products, added emotional value and resonated with consumers, enhancing their purchasing decisions [15][21]. Group 3: Long-term Impact and Market Position - The success of the live stream is not just a one-time sales victory; it establishes a long-term mechanism for supporting farmers and promoting quality products [19][22]. - Post-live stream, products like Yibin Huangguo and Meishan Dajiao experienced significant increases in search volume, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards these brands [20][21]. - Xiaohongshu's model demonstrates a complete and efficient ecosystem for e-commerce, capable of adapting across various categories, thus positioning itself as a vital platform for connecting quality products with consumers [22][23].
叮咚买菜被美团收购,即时零售进入巨头争战期
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-05 10:38
Core Viewpoint - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai marks a significant consolidation in the local lifestyle sector, indicating the end of the era where fresh e-commerce relied on independent platforms to "burn money for scale" [3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Meituan has reached a final agreement to acquire 100% of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, excluding its overseas operations [3]. - The acquisition is seen as a defensive move by Meituan to prevent Dingdong from being acquired by competitors, which could lead to intensified price wars [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The competition in instant retail is intensifying, with major players like JD and Hema also accelerating their expansion efforts [4][6]. - Dingdong Maicai's recent financial performance shows promising growth, with a GMV of 7.27 billion yuan and revenue of 6.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, both reaching historical highs [7]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition allows Meituan to gain a mature network and team from Dingdong Maicai, avoiding the high costs associated with early-stage investments [7][8]. - Dingdong Maicai has established a strong presence in key regions like Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, which are critical for market competition [8]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Dingdong Maicai's founder is reportedly pursuing a "second entrepreneurship" by developing B2B overseas business, indicating a strategic shift [8][9]. - The internal sentiment among Dingdong employees suggests concerns about potential personnel optimization following the acquisition [10].
AI洪流先漫过短剧,再浸入游戏|2026前瞻
36氪未来消费· 2026-02-04 09:35
Group 1: Core Insights - The content industry is rapidly reflecting technological changes, with AI beginning to reshape it by 2025 [2][3] - Emerging content forms like AI comic dramas (漫剧) are rapidly developing, with significant financial growth, while traditional content sectors like gaming are also benefiting from AI [3][4] Group 2: AI Comic Dramas - AI comic dramas, a new content form derived from short dramas, have seen explosive growth due to AI technology, with daily consumption on Douyin surpassing 20 million yuan, a 568% increase from the previous half-year [4] - The AI comic drama industry is projected to reach a scale of 20 billion yuan by 2025, exceeding one-third of the traditional film industry [4] - The development of AI comic dramas has outpaced that of short dramas, achieving a production rate of 300 to 500 episodes per day by July 2025, comparable to traditional animation [10] Group 3: Future Expectations for AI Comic Dramas - The industry is expected to see a significant increase in both quantity and quality in the first half of 2026, with anticipation for blockbuster hits [12][13] - The emergence of high-quality content is expected to drive further demand and competition within the AI comic drama sector [14][16] - The potential for international expansion is noted, with AI comic dramas likely to have advantages in overseas markets due to lower trial costs and cultural accessibility [18][19][20] Group 4: Gaming Industry Insights - AI has permeated the entire game production process, with a notable increase in the number of games utilizing generative AI on platforms like Steam [6][22] - Major gaming companies are focusing on practical applications of AI to enhance efficiency rather than exploring fully AI-native games [23][24] - The gaming industry is currently more concerned with extending the lifecycle of existing games rather than solely developing new AI-native games [26] Group 5: IP Development in Gaming - Game IP development is seen as a crucial strategy for attracting new players and fostering long-term emotional connections with brands [27][28] - The integration of IP into games is viewed as a natural evolution, enhancing the cultural significance and emotional resonance of games [26][28]
3家消费公司拿到新钱;鸣鸣很忙上市;库迪咖啡全场9.9元时代落幕|创投大视野
36氪未来消费· 2026-01-31 09:18
Group 1 - NOWWA Coffee completed a C round financing of several hundred million yuan, attracting multiple investment institutions and has opened over 10,000 stores, becoming the fourth coffee brand in China to enter the "10,000 store club" [3] - Lingman Kuaichuang announced a strategic investment of tens of millions from AIGC software company Wanxing Technology, aimed at expanding its team and enhancing content distribution capabilities [4] - ThetaWave AI, an AI-native knowledge content platform, completed a financing of several million US dollars, with investments from GL Ventures and others, focusing on rapid knowledge acquisition [5][6] Group 2 - Mingming Henmang went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first stock in China's mass snack industry, opening at 445 HKD per share, an increase of 88.08% from the issue price, with a total market value of 959 billion HKD [7][8] - In less than nine years, Mingming Henmang has opened over 20,000 stores across 28 provinces, achieving annual sales exceeding 90 billion yuan, showcasing its dominance in the offline retail sector [9][10] - The efficiency and scale of brands like Mingming Henmang and Mixue Ice City have enabled rapid penetration into lower-tier markets, providing affordable options previously unavailable [11] Group 3 - The era of Kudi Coffee's all-products priced at 9.9 yuan is coming to an end, with new pricing strategies set to take effect, reflecting the challenges of sustaining a price war amid rising coffee bean prices and intense competition [15][16] - ByteDance has launched the official version of the Doubao mobile assistant project, with expectations for significant improvements over the first generation, while addressing privacy concerns raised by Tencent's CEO [17][18][20] - The keyword for ByteDance in 2026 is "Dare to Climb High," focusing on AI opportunities and talent investment to enhance competitiveness in the market [21] Group 4 - Heytea's "Bitter Chocolate" series has been launched nationwide, with promotional activities like buy-one-get-one-free, indicating strong consumer interest despite some feedback on sweetness [22][23] - Cha Baidao introduced a new triple berry tea series, emphasizing health and low-calorie ingredients as key marketing points amid fierce competition in the beverage industry [24][25] Group 5 - Gold jewelry prices have seen significant fluctuations, with the price per gram dropping from 1700 yuan to 1500 yuan, reflecting market volatility [26][27] - The Chinese潮玩 industry is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan in total value by 2026, with an annual growth rate of over 20% [28] - The emotional consumption market in China is growing, with companies focusing on "self-pleasure consumption" and "emotional value" marketing strategies, showing a significant increase in revenue and profit [29]
鸣鸣很忙近1000亿IPO背后:在冬天捕到大鱼的人
36氪未来消费· 2026-01-28 01:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of the snack retail company "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and its CEO Yan Zhou, highlighting the company's growth, strategic decisions, and market positioning in the competitive snack industry [2][9]. Company Overview - Yan Zhou co-founded "Ming Ming Hen Mang" in 2017, and the company has grown to nearly 20,000 stores by 2025, marking a significant expansion from its initial base in Hunan [8][39]. - The company went public on January 28, 2025, with a market valuation nearing 100 billion HKD, reflecting strong investor interest and a successful IPO [9]. Market Positioning - The company targets the mass consumer market, which has been underserved compared to higher-end brands like "Liangpinpuzi" and "Three Squirrels" [5]. - By focusing on affordable snacks and a pleasant shopping experience, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" aims to redefine consumer perceptions of value and quality in the snack sector [18][23]. Investment and Growth Strategy - The company secured significant funding from prominent investors, including Sequoia Capital and Tencent, which helped it navigate a challenging investment climate in the consumer sector [8][11]. - Despite initial skepticism from investors, the company demonstrated strong growth metrics, achieving a GMV of 661 billion CNY and revenue of 464 billion CNY in the first nine months of 2025 [8]. Competitive Landscape - The snack retail market has seen rapid growth, with "Ming Ming Hen Mang" facing competition from aggressive players like "Zhao Yiming Snacks," leading to a strategic merger to consolidate market presence [36][38]. - The merger allowed both brands to leverage their strengths, resulting in a combined store count exceeding 10,000, making them a leader in the snack retail industry [38]. Consumer Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of emotional value in consumer products, aiming to create a shopping environment that resonates with customers beyond just price [18][22]. - Yan Zhou's background as a real estate agent has influenced his understanding of consumer needs, particularly in lower-tier cities, where he sees significant growth potential [5][10].