Summary of Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (2367.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (2367.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer (Biotech and Skincare) - **Market Cap**: US$6,931.1 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$53.95 - **Price Target**: HK$78.00, representing a 45% upside from the current price [7][21] Key Financial Highlights - **1H Results**: - Sales increased by 23% - Net Profit (NP) rose by 20% - Operating Profit (OP) was approximately 5% above market expectations [2][3] - **Sales Growth Forecast**: - 2025: 25% increase - 2026: 27% increase - 2027: 27% increase [12][15] - **Net Profit Growth Forecast**: - 2025: 18% - 2026: 24% - 2027: 27% [15] Marketing and Sales Strategy - **Marketing Efficiency**: Improvement noted in 1H results, with a decline in Advertising & Promotion (A&P) expenses for the first time on a semiannual basis [4] - **Sales Channels**: - Online sales grew by 25% - Offline sales increased by 18% - JD Health saw a significant growth of 134% [3] - **KOL Livestreaming Impact**: Temporary disruption due to unfavorable publicity, but recovery is expected [4] Strategic Direction - **In-house Livestreaming**: Shift towards strengthening in-house livestreaming and diversifying influencer partnerships [4] - **Product Innovation**: Emphasis on R&D and product innovation as a competitive advantage [5] Valuation and Price Target Changes - **Price Target Increase**: From HK$74 to HK$78 based on higher EPS estimates [16] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Target P/E remains at 30x for 2025 estimates - Bull-case scenario suggests a target of HK$91.00 with a P/E of 33x [21][29] - Bear-case scenario suggests a target of HK$45.00 with a P/E of 19x [17][31] Risks and Opportunities - **Opportunities**: - Potential growth in aesthetics products not yet priced in - Expected strong sales growth driven by core brands and new product approvals [25][35] - **Risks**: - Competition in the industry may impact margins - Delays in the approval of new aesthetic products could hinder growth [36] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: The company is positioned well within the biotech market with a strong growth outlook, driven by innovative products and effective marketing strategies. The current stock price presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors, with significant upside potential as the market begins to recognize the value of its aesthetic product offerings [25][21]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 5%, currently down 5.7% at HKD 54.6, with a trading volume of HKD 560 million. The company is set to hold a board meeting to approve its mid-year results for 2025, amid negative media coverage affecting its performance during the 618 shopping festival [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - According to China Merchants Securities International, the GMV growth rate for May and June has slowed to a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year due to negative media sentiment [1]. - The firm projects that the company will achieve revenue and net profit of RMB 3.1 billion and RMB 1.2 billion respectively in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by sales growth of approximately 25% for Comfy and over 50% for Collgene [1]. - The target price for the stock remains unchanged at HKD 77.0 [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Caitong Securities believes that after the recovery of the data for Kefu Mei in July, sales are expected to gradually rebound in the second half of the year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 5%, currently trading at 54.6 HKD with a transaction volume of 560 million HKD, amid negative media coverage affecting its performance during the 618 shopping festival [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Giant Bio is set to hold a board meeting to approve its mid-year results for 2025 [1] - According to China Merchants Securities International, the GMV growth rate for May to June has slowed to a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year [1] - The firm projects that Giant Bio will achieve revenue and net profit of 3.1 billion and 1.2 billion RMB respectively in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by sales growth of approximately 25% for Comfy and over 50% for Collgene [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The target price for Giant Bio remains unchanged at 77.0 HKD [1] - According to Caitong Securities, the sales data for Kefu Mei is expected to recover after resuming broadcasts in July, with a gradual sales rebound anticipated in the second half of the year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Biogene Holding (2367.HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$71.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.1% from the current price of HK$56.75 [1][15][34]. Core Insights - Giant Biogene is expected to achieve a year-on-year sales growth of 23% to RMB3,116 million and a net income growth of 20% to RMB1,183 million for 1H25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB1,205 million, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year when excluding ESOP expenses [1][18][20]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcycle in China's functional skincare market, leveraging its strengths in recombinant collagen and expanding its online presence through key brands Comfy and Collgene [37][38]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards by 0-2% due to more resilient margins and faster sales recovery than previously estimated [15][34]. - The expected gross profit margin (GPM), operating profit margin (OPM), and net profit margin (NPM) for 1H25 are projected at 81.7%, 41.3%, and 38.0% respectively [25][26]. Market Trends - Online gross merchandise volume (GMV) has shown a recovery trajectory, increasing by 58% year-on-year on Douyin as of July, significantly outperforming peers [2][31]. - The report highlights a minimal contribution from KOL livestreaming, which accounted for approximately 10% of sales on Douyin in July, down from 20% in the same period last year [2]. Brand Performance - The Comfy brand is anticipated to deliver 21% growth in online sales and 16% growth in offline sales for 1H25, while the Collgene brand is expected to grow by 70% online but decline by 5% offline [23][28]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategies to revitalize brand momentum, particularly in preparation for the Double 11 shopping festival [2].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that during the 618 promotional period from May 13 to 26, 2023, promotional efforts varied significantly among brands, with Proya leading in Tmall beauty and Caitang ranking first in Douyin makeup [1][5] Tmall Rankings - Proya maintained the top position in Tmall beauty rankings during the 618 event, with L'Oreal Paris and Estee Lauder following in the top three [2] - Comfy, a brand under Giant Bio, ranked 3rd on May 13, dropped to 9th on May 15, and fell to 12th from May 16 to 26 in Tmall beauty rankings [1][6] Douyin Rankings - In Douyin makeup, Caitang ranked first, while Comfy's performance fluctuated, indicating a preference for balancing sales growth and profit margins rather than pursuing high rankings [1][5] - High-end skincare brands showed increased focus on Douyin, with seven brands entering the top ten during the promotional period [5] Comfy Brand Insights - Comfy's initial high rankings during e-commerce shopping festivals tend to decline, a pattern observed in previous events like Double 11 [1][6] - The brand's strategy includes collaborating with less promotional-driven key opinion leaders (KOLs) and limiting supply on heavily discounted packages [6] - Recent consumer concerns regarding Comfy products on social media may impact consumer confidence, although the company is expected to address these issues with independent testing results [6] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley estimates that the recent decline in Giant Bio's stock price to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 22x reflects the market's absorption of some earnings downside risks from consumer feedback [7] - Despite short-term uncertainties, Morgan Stanley maintains a buy rating and advises investors to build long-term positions during stock price weaknesses [7]