巨子生物(02367)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.7%，报54.6港元，成交额5.6亿港元。 消息面上，巨子生物今日将举行董事会会议批准2025年中期业绩。招商证券国际此前指出，媒体负面舆 论拖累618大促表现，5–6月GMV同比增速放缓至中单位数百分比。该行预计公司25年上半年实现收入/ 净利润31/12亿元人民币，主要受益于Comfy与Collgene分别录得约25%与50%以上的销售增长。目标价 维持在77.0元港币不变。财通证券（601108）认为，可复美7月恢复达播后数据环比回暖，下半年销售 逐步回升可期。 ...

消息面上，巨子生物今日将举行董事会会议批准2025年中期业绩。招商证券国际此前指出，媒体负面舆 论拖累618大促表现，5–6月GMV同比增速放缓至中单位数百分比。该行预计公司25年上半年实现收入/ 净利润31/12亿元人民币，主要受益于Comfy与Collgene分别录得约25%与50%以上的销售增长。目标价 维持在77.0元港币不变。财通证券认为，可复美7月恢复达播后数据环比回暖，下半年销售逐步回升可 期。 智通财经APP获悉，巨子生物(02367)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.7%，报54.6港元，成交额5.6亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Biogene Holding (2367.HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$71.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.1% from the current price of HK$56.75 [1][15][34]. Core Insights - Giant Biogene is expected to achieve a year-on-year sales growth of 23% to RMB3,116 million and a net income growth of 20% to RMB1,183 million for 1H25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB1,205 million, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year when excluding ESOP expenses [1][18][20]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcycle in China's functional skincare market, leveraging its strengths in recombinant collagen and expanding its online presence through key brands Comfy and Collgene [37][38]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards by 0-2% due to more resilient margins and faster sales recovery than previously estimated [15][34]. - The expected gross profit margin (GPM), operating profit margin (OPM), and net profit margin (NPM) for 1H25 are projected at 81.7%, 41.3%, and 38.0% respectively [25][26]. Market Trends - Online gross merchandise volume (GMV) has shown a recovery trajectory, increasing by 58% year-on-year on Douyin as of July, significantly outperforming peers [2][31]. - The report highlights a minimal contribution from KOL livestreaming, which accounted for approximately 10% of sales on Douyin in July, down from 20% in the same period last year [2]. Brand Performance - The Comfy brand is anticipated to deliver 21% growth in online sales and 16% growth in offline sales for 1H25, while the Collgene brand is expected to grow by 70% online but decline by 5% offline [23][28]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategies to revitalize brand momentum, particularly in preparation for the Double 11 shopping festival [2].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that during the 618 promotional period from May 13 to 26, 2023, promotional efforts varied significantly among brands, with Proya leading in Tmall beauty and Caitang ranking first in Douyin makeup [1][5] Tmall Rankings - Proya maintained the top position in Tmall beauty rankings during the 618 event, with L'Oreal Paris and Estee Lauder following in the top three [2] - Comfy, a brand under Giant Bio, ranked 3rd on May 13, dropped to 9th on May 15, and fell to 12th from May 16 to 26 in Tmall beauty rankings [1][6] Douyin Rankings - In Douyin makeup, Caitang ranked first, while Comfy's performance fluctuated, indicating a preference for balancing sales growth and profit margins rather than pursuing high rankings [1][5] - High-end skincare brands showed increased focus on Douyin, with seven brands entering the top ten during the promotional period [5] Comfy Brand Insights - Comfy's initial high rankings during e-commerce shopping festivals tend to decline, a pattern observed in previous events like Double 11 [1][6] - The brand's strategy includes collaborating with less promotional-driven key opinion leaders (KOLs) and limiting supply on heavily discounted packages [6] - Recent consumer concerns regarding Comfy products on social media may impact consumer confidence, although the company is expected to address these issues with independent testing results [6] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley estimates that the recent decline in Giant Bio's stock price to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 22x reflects the market's absorption of some earnings downside risks from consumer feedback [7] - Despite short-term uncertainties, Morgan Stanley maintains a buy rating and advises investors to build long-term positions during stock price weaknesses [7]