Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant market performance for the week of June 23-27, 2025, with retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increasing by 4.56%, 4.61%, and 1.04% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.91% [14][17]. - Key events include the strategic investment of 3.4 billion yuan by Jianbo Biological into Yangshengtang, and the successful IPO of Yingtong Holdings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail, social services, and beauty care sectors ranked 9th, 8th, and 24th among 31 primary industries, with notable increases in sub-sectors such as education, professional chains, and trade, which rose by 7.47%, 7.42%, and 5.2% respectively [14][17]. Key Industry Data and News - In the beauty care sector, significant developments include the entry of Kefu Mei into Malaysia's Watsons, becoming the first Chinese efficacy skincare brand in the region, and the announcement by the National Medical Products Administration regarding the management of cosmetic raw materials [23][24]. - Jianbo Biological's restructuring of its collagen product to a medical device category and the successful listing of Yingtong Holdings are also noteworthy [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Ltd., Juzhi Biological, Marubi Biological, Runben Co., Ltd., Proya, Chaohongji, Blukoo, and Furuida as potential investment targets within the highlighted sectors [5][29].

Group 1: US Economy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that oil price shocks will not have a lasting impact on inflation, consistent with the quantitative analysis conducted by the US economic team in September 2023 [1] - The research indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically results in a modest 5 basis point increase in core prices within three months [1] - The model shows that headline prices react more significantly, increasing by 5 basis points in the same period, primarily due to the energy component of the CPI [1] Group 2: China Liquidity and MSCI China - In May, China's liquidity showed some improvement but remained negative due to strong growth in M1 (narrow money supply), intensified PPI deflation, and stable industrial value-added growth [4] - Morgan Stanley expects deflationary pressures to persist throughout 2025, with a passive policy stance leading to continued negative liquidity [4] Group 3: Chinese Beauty Market during 618 Sales - The total GMV of beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms grew by over 10% year-on-year, attributed to a 10-day extension of the promotional period and simplified sales strategies [6] - Douyin's beauty category growth outpaced Tmall's by approximately 10%, although the growth advantage for Douyin appears to be narrowing [6] - Tmall's competitive landscape remained stable, with the top six brands consistent with the previous year, while domestic brands showed more volatility in rankings [6] Group 4: E-commerce Platforms and Competition - Morgan Stanley expresses confidence in Meituan's competitive barriers in the instant retail sector, with Alibaba's e-commerce and local life services synergy expected to drive business expansion [15] - Meituan's restructuring of its 优选 (preferred) business is seen as a positive move, allowing for more investment in instant retail and international expansion [19] - Meituan is projected to achieve a GTV of 350 billion RMB in instant retail by 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [19] Group 5: Alibaba's Strategic Moves - Alibaba announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce group, maintaining their operational structures while enhancing business efficiency through strong synergies [21] - This move is seen as a response to JD's recent expansions into instant retail and online travel, highlighting the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimizing its investment structure by divesting non-core assets to enhance financial efficiency and focus on its main cosmetics business [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Strategic Decisions - The company announced the transfer of a 45% stake in Jiaxing Woyong Investment Partnership for a price of 99.99 million yuan, indicating a strategic decision to improve capital utilization [1]. - This transaction aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and reflects a prudent approach to investment [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.04%, with a net profit of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30% [2]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, an increase of 8.13%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, growing by 28.87% [2]. Group 3: Research and Development - The company increased its R&D investment to 210 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 21.21%, and established three R&D centers in cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai [2]. - Future R&D efforts will focus on key areas such as anti-aging, scalp micro-ecology, and sustainable materials to build technological barriers [2]. Group 4: Brand and Market Strategy - The company is implementing a multi-brand and multi-category strategy, with brands like "Proya," "Caitang," and "Off&Relax," covering various segments such as skincare and makeup [2]. - This strategy aims to create a clear and complementary brand matrix within the domestic cosmetics industry [2]. Group 5: Channel and Digital Strategy - The company is enhancing its online and offline channel development, focusing on e-commerce and new marketing methods like live streaming to increase brand penetration and customer loyalty [3]. - A unified data foundation has been established to drive decision-making efficiency through digitalization and AI technologies, creating an "AI beauty ecosystem" for improved operations and personalized consumer experiences [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report from Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the domestic consumption sector, highlighting its strong performance driven by multiple factors [1] - The report identifies key areas of growth within the domestic consumption sector, including beauty care, gold and jewelry, IP toys, and cross-border e-commerce, which are expected to attract more investment due to their performance certainty [1] - During the 618 shopping festival, significant sales data was reported, with JD.com and Tmall showing impressive growth in transaction volume and user engagement, indicating a robust market response [1] Group 2 - The 618 promotion has evolved with extended timelines and changes in promotional rules, such as the elimination of cross-store discounts, which simplifies the shopping experience for consumers [2] - Instant retail platforms like Meituan's flash purchase have played a crucial role in enhancing offline sales by collaborating with local merchants, thereby expanding geographical reach and customer base [2] - AI technology has been deeply integrated into the shopping experience, improving operational efficiency for merchants and enhancing consumer interaction through features like digital live streaming and intelligent product recommendations [2]

Group 1 - The beauty and personal care sector has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with the SW Beauty Care Index rising by 13.4%, leading all 31 SW primary industries [4][10][12] - The cosmetics segment is focusing on enhancing brand matrices and introducing new ingredients, benefiting from an optimized competitive landscape [4][6] - The medical beauty market is evolving with new products stimulating consumer interest, and domestic companies are expected to become major competitors in the light medical beauty sector [4][6] Group 2 - The e-commerce sector is witnessing new consumption models and brands, which are helping to drive growth in the industry [4][6] - The report recommends several companies in the cosmetics sector, including Up Beauty and Proya, which have low PE multiples and strong growth potential [4][6] - In the medical beauty segment, companies with high R&D barriers and strong profitability, such as Aimeike, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4][6] Group 3 - The personal care market is projected to reach CNY 283.3 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4% from 2023 to 2028 [32][34] - Domestic brands are increasingly replacing foreign brands in the personal care sector, with a notable rise in innovative products and marketing strategies [32][36] - The high-end market is experiencing significant growth, with premium products seeing a 27% increase in average transaction value in H2 2024 [44]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, highlighting a stable performance during the 618 shopping festival, with significant growth in sales and user engagement across major platforms like JD and Tmall [1][2][10] - New consumption trends are emerging, driven by instant retail and AI technology, enhancing consumer interaction and operational efficiency for merchants [2][20][24] Retail Sector Performance - During the 618 promotional period, JD reported over 200% year-on-year growth in transaction volume, order quantity, and number of users within the first hour of the event [1][10] - Tmall's first phase saw 217 brands surpassing 100 million yuan in sales, indicating strong brand performance [1][10] - Instant retail platforms like Meituan have also shown impressive results, with over 50 product categories experiencing more than 100% growth compared to the previous year [10][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, including: 1. **Beauty and Personal Care**: Companies like Dongkang Oral Care and Maogeping are expected to achieve significant growth due to innovative product offerings and effective use of e-commerce channels [2][3] 2. **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is anticipated to benefit from a low base effect in Q2, with brands like Chaohongji and Caibai showing promising sales [3][12] 3. **IP Toys**: Companies like Pop Mart and Blokus are well-positioned to capitalize on the emotional value for young consumers and the potential for overseas market expansion [3][12] 4. **Cross-border E-commerce**: Brands like Anker Innovations are expected to leverage favorable trade conditions for growth [3] Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a shift towards simplified promotional rules and extended event durations, with Tmall starting pre-sales earlier than in previous years [19] - AI technology is increasingly integrated into retail operations, enhancing customer service and marketing effectiveness [24][28] Recent Industry Data - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a steady recovery in consumer spending [28][29] - Online retail sales for the first four months of 2025 reached 47,419 billion yuan, growing by 7.7% year-on-year, with physical goods online sales accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [29][30] Stock Performance - In May 2025, the retail index rose by 1.66%, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index, while the beauty and personal care index increased by 2.55%, outperforming the broader market [42][47] - Notable stock performers in the retail sector included Liren Liyang and Ruoyuchen, with significant price increases [52][55]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Proya achieved a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, becoming the first beauty company in China to enter the "100 billion club" [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Proya's new general manager, Hou Yameng, has set a strategic goal to enter the top ten global cosmetics companies within ten years [2] - From 2017 to 2024, Proya's revenue grew from 1.783 billion yuan to 10.778 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.31% [5] - However, Proya's growth rate has shown signs of slowing down, with revenue growth rates dropping from 39.45% in 2023 to 21.04% in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Market Challenges - The slowdown in growth is attributed to the overall decline in the beauty industry and the saturation of core brands [6] - Proya's main brand accounted for nearly 80% of total revenue in 2024, but its growth rate decreased significantly, from 36.36% in 2023 to 19.55% in 2024 [7] - The brand "Caitang," acquired in 2019, only contributed about 10% to total revenue in 2024, with its growth rate plummeting from 132.04% to 19.04% [8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Global leaders like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder have extensive brand portfolios that contribute to their high revenue, making it challenging for Proya to compete [9][10] - Proya's reliance on a single brand and the inability to effectively develop sub-brands hinder its growth potential [11] Group 4: Financial Strategy - Proya's online revenue share increased from 36.06% in 2017 to 95.06% in 2024, indicating a shift towards an online sales model [12] - The company's sales expenses grew significantly, from 636 million yuan in 2018 to 5.161 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 34.86% [13] - In 2024, Proya's sales expense ratio reached a historical high of 47.88%, reflecting the challenges in maintaining growth [14] Group 5: R&D and Brand Perception - Proya's R&D investment remains low compared to its sales expenses, with R&D expenses only 1.95% of total revenue in 2024 [15][16] - The company's heavy reliance on marketing has led to inconsistent brand reputation, with consumer complaints about product quality and pricing strategies [18] Group 6: Management Changes - Proya has experienced significant management turnover, including the resignation of key executives, which raises concerns about stability [20][21] - The appointment of new R&D leaders with backgrounds in international beauty giants indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing innovation [23]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that during the 618 promotional period from May 13 to 26, 2023, promotional efforts varied significantly among brands, with Proya leading in Tmall beauty and Caitang ranking first in Douyin makeup [1][5] Tmall Rankings - Proya maintained the top position in Tmall beauty rankings during the 618 event, with L'Oreal Paris and Estee Lauder following in the top three [2] - Comfy, a brand under Giant Bio, ranked 3rd on May 13, dropped to 9th on May 15, and fell to 12th from May 16 to 26 in Tmall beauty rankings [1][6] Douyin Rankings - In Douyin makeup, Caitang ranked first, while Comfy's performance fluctuated, indicating a preference for balancing sales growth and profit margins rather than pursuing high rankings [1][5] - High-end skincare brands showed increased focus on Douyin, with seven brands entering the top ten during the promotional period [5] Comfy Brand Insights - Comfy's initial high rankings during e-commerce shopping festivals tend to decline, a pattern observed in previous events like Double 11 [1][6] - The brand's strategy includes collaborating with less promotional-driven key opinion leaders (KOLs) and limiting supply on heavily discounted packages [6] - Recent consumer concerns regarding Comfy products on social media may impact consumer confidence, although the company is expected to address these issues with independent testing results [6] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley estimates that the recent decline in Giant Bio's stock price to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 22x reflects the market's absorption of some earnings downside risks from consumer feedback [7] - Despite short-term uncertainties, Morgan Stanley maintains a buy rating and advises investors to build long-term positions during stock price weaknesses [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Proya (珀莱雅), is planning to fill gaps in its product lines through overseas acquisitions, particularly in the segments of baby products, perfumes, and men's skincare, with intentions to introduce new brands to the domestic market [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Proya has established itself as the leading domestic beauty company, being the first local beauty firm to surpass 10 billion yuan in revenue, achieving 10.778 billion yuan in revenue last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.04% [2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.552 billion yuan, marking a 30.00% year-on-year growth [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Proya reported revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.13% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 28.87% to 390 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Strategic Development - Proya has been expanding its product lines through brand upgrades and a matrix strategy, which includes multiple brands under its umbrella, such as the makeup brand Caitang acquired in 2019 and the Japanese hair care brand Off&Relax acquired in 2021 [2]. - Analysts suggest that domestic beauty companies need a diversified brand matrix to scale effectively, indicating that "investment and acquisitions" are optimal paths for the continuous development of leading listed companies [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - Historically, many successful domestic brands were acquired by foreign companies, such as Coty Group's acquisition of a majority stake in DHC in 2010, valued at approximately 400 million USD, and L'Oréal's acquisitions of Yuesai and Little Nurse [3]. - Currently, domestic companies are in a position to acquire international brands, as seen with Perfect Diary's parent company Yatsen Holding's acquisitions of Galénic and Eve Lom in 2020 and 2021, respectively [4]. - The trend indicates that domestic beauty firms are looking to acquire existing international brands to enhance their high-end offerings, as internal brand incubation tends to focus on mass-market and affordable products [4].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care sector experienced a significant increase, with the index reaching a two-year high and the sector rising nearly 2% on May 9 [1] - Several companies within the sector reported notable growth in their financial performance, with leading company Proya (珀莱雅) achieving a revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.13%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up 28.87% [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Nobon (诺邦股份), Qingsong (青松股份), and Jinbo (锦波股份), reported growth rates exceeding 50% in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Key Trends and Consumer Behavior - According to a report by Mintel, the trend of "Beauty in Body and Mind" is one of the three major trends influencing the global beauty and personal care industry in the coming years [2] - The rise of the "颜值经济" (beauty economy) and "悦己潮流" (self-pleasure trend) has led consumers to purchase functional skincare products, trendy makeup, and home fragrances for self-healing purposes [2] Group 3: Notable Companies in the Sector - Proya focuses on the research, production, and sales of cosmetic products, with brands including "Proya," "Caitang," "Off&Relax," and "Yuefuti" [2] - Shanghai Jahwa (上海家化) specializes in the research, production, and sales of daily chemical products, including personal care and beauty products [2] - Furuida (福瑞达) has transitioned into the health industry through acquisitions, creating a full industry chain from hyaluronic acid raw materials to products [2] - Huaxi Biological (华熙生物) is a leading high-tech enterprise in the production of hyaluronic acid through microbial fermentation technology [2] - Betaini (贝泰妮) operates a subsidiary focused on medical beauty services, including laser and micro-needle treatments [2] - Shuiyang (水羊股份) has launched a light medical beauty brand, primarily sold through online platforms [2] - Nobon produces water-jet non-woven materials used in beauty care, industrial materials, and medical supplies [2] - Marubi (丸美生物) specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of cosmetics, focusing on eye care, skincare, and cleansing products [2]