证券研究报告 #大类资产：技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价的影响？ 核心观点：我们根据过去黄金 ETF 规模与金价的线性关系倒推出金价隐 含的黄金 ETF 需求。统计结果显示，投资需求每增加 1 吨，金价上涨 0.46$/oz。2023 年以来，二者残差不断扩大，我们发现全球央行购金行为 可解释 92.78%的残差变化，由此得出金价 = f [美元利率，美元信用] = f [g(黄金 ETF 规模)，h(央行购金规模)]的二元模型。向前看，全球央行的 购金潮很难停滞，这为金价的中枢上移提供了强有力的支撑。 海外周报 20251221：降息交易陷入纠结，市场静待"圣诞老人"行情 核心观点：本周公布的美国 11 月非农就业好于预期但失业率意外上行， 11 月美国 CPI 同比大幅逊于预期，二者均令降息预期一度小幅升温，但 数据质量的缺陷令市场的宽货币交易程度相对有限。本周欧、英日央行公 布议息决议，欧、英央行均释放偏鹰派信号，市场小幅押注 2026 年欧央 行加息预期。大类资产方面，本周美股被科技股情绪和降息预期所主导， 全周走势震荡。临近圣诞假期，海外数据和交投趋于平淡，下周关注 25Q3 美国 GDP，我们预期 ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - As of April 24, 2025, the company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with operating income reaching 1.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.78%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.14% [4][5][6] - The growth in performance is attributed to the booming demand in the AI industry, the increasing penetration of DDR5 memory interfaces, and the strong sales of high-performance capacity chips [6][10] - The company expects to deliver interconnect chips with a total order value exceeding 1.29 billion yuan by Q2 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the year [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating income was 1.222 billion yuan, up 65.78% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 525 million yuan, up 135.14% year-on-year [5][6] - The company's gross margin for interconnect chips was 64.50%, an increase of 3.57 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an overall gross profit growth of 73.66% year-on-year [6] Product Development - The company has made significant advancements in high-performance capacity chips, with sales revenue for three key products reaching 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155% [6][7] - Ongoing R&D efforts include the development of CXL3.x MXC chips and PCIe 7.0 Retimer chips, indicating a commitment to innovation and market leadership [7] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a substantial increase in demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance capacity chips throughout 2025, supported by the AI industry's growth [9][10] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.451 billion, 3.415 billion, and 3.960 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.14, 2.98, and 3.46 yuan [10]