Key Takeaways Pfizer's COVID sales fell sharply, while non-COVID revenues rose 6% operationally in 2025.PFE's new and acquired drugs generated $10.2B in 2025, up about 14% year over year.Pfizer faces a 2026-2030 LOE cliff as Eliquis and other key drugs near patent expiry.Sales of Pfizer’s (PFE) COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, declined from their peak with the end of the pandemic. Their sales came down to around $11 billion in 2024 and $6.7 billion in 2025 from $56.7 billion in 2022. In addition to l ...

Key Takeaways PFE beat Q4 earnings & sales estimates, but revenues fell 3% operationally due to sharp COVID product declinePFE reported positive phase IIb obesity data for PF'3944, strengthening its pipeline after the Metsera buyout.Pfizer's 2026 outlook indicates lower revenues and EPS, pressured by COVID erosion, LOEs and higher costs.Pfizer’s (PFE)  fourth-quarter results were strong as it beat estimates for both earnings and sales. Total revenues declined 3% on an operational basis due to a 40% decline ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Pfizer Inc. on Disruptive analytics’s Substack by Magnus Ofstad. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PFE. Pfizer Inc.'s share was trading at $25.86 as of January 28th. PFE’s trailing and forward P/E were 15.41 and 9.14, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Pfizer Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products in the United States and internationally. PFE has strengthened its oncology leadership ...

Core Insights - Pfizer demonstrated robust operational resilience during its strategic transformation phase, with total revenue reaching $62.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a 6% growth in core business excluding COVID-related products [1][4] - The company maintained its 2026 performance guidance while revealing an active product pipeline, expecting to initiate approximately 20 key clinical trials in 2026, laying the foundation for long-term growth [1][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $17.6 billion, a 1% decrease from Q4 2024, while full-year revenue decreased by 2% to $62.6 billion [2] - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.66, a 5% increase year-over-year, and for the full year, it reached $3.22, up 4% [2][3] - The adjusted sales cost ratio improved to 24.2%, down from 25.8% in 2024, indicating enhanced cost management [8] Business Segments - Non-COVID product lines showed strong structural growth, with cardiovascular and vaccine segments leading the way; Eliquis generated $8 billion in revenue, a growth of 8% [4][5] - The oncology business achieved $16.8 billion in revenue, an 8% increase, with key products like Ibrance and Xtandi maintaining strong market positions despite competition [6] - COVID-related product revenues significantly declined, with Comirnaty and Paxlovid generating $4.4 billion and $2.4 billion respectively, down 18% and 59% year-over-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Pfizer completed the acquisition of Metsera for approximately $7 billion, marking its entry into the obesity and metabolic disease treatment market [9] - The company is advancing its obesity pipeline, with promising results from the clinical trials of its long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist [10] - Multiple oncology products received regulatory breakthroughs, enhancing the competitive edge of Pfizer's oncology portfolio [11][12] 2026 Outlook - Pfizer projects 2026 revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, including approximately $5 billion from COVID-related products [13] - The company plans to maintain a focus on reducing debt levels and balancing its capital structure, with no share buybacks planned for 2026 [13]

Core Insights - Pfizer reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents, with a year-over-year earnings increase of 5% [1] - Total revenues for the quarter were $17.6 billion, a decline of 1% year-over-year on a reported basis and 3% on an operational basis, primarily due to decreased revenues from COVID-19 products [2] Revenue Breakdown - International revenues decreased by 4% on an operational basis to $8.44 billion, while U.S. revenues fell by 1% to $9.1 billion [2] - The Primary Care segment saw a 13% operational decline in sales to $7.94 billion, while Specialty Care recorded a 6% increase to $4.77 billion, and Oncology sales rose by 8% to $4.44 billion [3] Product Performance - Eliquis sales in Primary Care rose by 8% to $2.02 billion, although alliance revenues fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.14 billion [4] - Global revenues from the Prevnar family increased by 8% to $1.71 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 billion [5] - Comirnaty sales were $2.27 billion, down 35% year-over-year, but still beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.0 billion [6] - Paxlovid revenues dropped by 70% year-over-year to $218 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $289 million [7] Full-Year Results - For the full year 2025, Pfizer's sales declined by 2% to $62.6 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $61.94 billion [14] - Adjusted earnings for 2025 were $3.22 per share, a 4% increase year-over-year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 [14] 2026 Guidance - Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, reflecting a decline from 2025 due to lower COVID product revenues and an impending patent cliff [16] - COVID sales are projected to be around $5 billion in 2026, down from approximately $6.7 billion in 2025 [17] - Adjusted earnings per share for 2026 are expected to be in the range of $2.80-$3.00, a decrease from 2025's EPS of $3.22 [17] Research and Development - Pfizer plans to initiate 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 for ultra-long-acting obesity candidates from the Metsera acquisition [26] - Positive top-line data from a phase IIb study on PF-08653944 showed significant weight reduction, positioning Pfizer competitively against other weight loss therapies [20][21]

U.S. stocks pointed to a positive open on Tuesday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures nudging into the green. But shares of Merck & Co. and Pfizer bucked the trend, with Merck falling 1% and Pfizer falling almost 5%. The culprit? Solid but unspectacular results as tech and gold rally. Still, together, their earnings give us a pretty good read on the pharmaceutical sector and the broader economy. For Merck, fourth-quarter worldwide sales rose 5% to $16.4 billion, or 4% excluding currency effects, while full ...

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on February 3, with consensus estimates of $16.93 billion in sales and $0.57 earnings per share (EPS) [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer's Q4 sales is $16.93 billion and EPS is $0.57, with a decline in 2026 earnings estimates from $3.15 to $2.99 per share over the past 60 days [1][2]. - The earnings surprise history shows Pfizer has exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 35.33% [2][3]. Segment Performance Expectations - Q4 growth is anticipated from oncology drugs and Vyndaqel, but offset by weaker COVID products and Prevnar [7]. - Sales of Vyndaqel, Eliquis, Padcev, and Lorbrena are expected to drive top-line growth, while Prevnar and Xeljanz sales have declined [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis alliance revenues is $2.14 billion, and for Prevnar family vaccines is $1.65 billion [10][11]. - Revenues from Comirnaty are expected to decline due to narrower COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, with estimates of $2.0 billion for Comirnaty and $289 million for Paxlovid [12][13]. Oncology and Specialty Care Insights - Oncology sales are expected to be driven by Xtandi, Lorbrena, and Braftovi-Mektovi, while Ibrance sales may decline [14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $527 million and for Ibrance is $1.03 billion [15]. - In Specialty Care, Vyndaqel sales are expected to remain strong at $1.66 billion, while Xeljanz and Enbrel sales may decline [16]. Financial Guidance and Acquisitions - Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, with adjusted EPS in the range of $2.80-$3.00 [17]. - A one-time R&D charge related to the acquisition of Metsera will impact Q4 EPS [18]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has declined 1.6% over the past year, compared to a 16.4% return for the industry [20]. - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8.84, lower than the industry average of 18.18 and its five-year mean of 10.25 [23]. Long-Term Outlook - Pfizer's dependence on COVID-related revenues has decreased, with non-COVID operational revenues improving [26]. - The company is focusing on rebuilding its pipeline through acquisitions, with significant investments in business development [28]. - However, challenges remain, including declining COVID product sales and upcoming patent expirations that could negatively impact revenues by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026 [29][30]. - Long-term investors may consider holding the stock as Pfizer aims for growth from its oncology and obesity pipeline starting in 2029 [33].

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer has unveiled a significant R&D plan for 707/PF'4404 (PD-1/VEGF) in collaboration with 3SBio, with an accelerated pace and breadth beyond expectations, aiming to initiate four global Phase III clinical trials by 2026 across five major first-line indications [1][2] Group 1: Clinical Development - Pfizer plans to launch four Phase III clinical trials in 2026 targeting first-line squamous/non-squamous NSCLC, mCRC, endometrial cancer, and urothelial carcinoma [2] - The company has already completed the first patient enrollment for Phase III trials targeting first-line NSCLC and mCRC, as well as Phase II/III trials for first-line ES-SCLC [2] - Pfizer will also initiate Phase III clinical studies combining 707 with various ADCs, such as Padcev for first-line treatment of urothelial carcinoma [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Four multinational corporations (MNCs) are competing in the PD-(L)1/VEGF space, including Pfizer, BMS, Merck, and AbbVie, with Pfizer expected to stand out due to its "speed, breadth, and depth" advantages [2] - BMS and BioNTech have announced extensive clinical plans, but their progress in core indications like first-line NSCLC and mCRC lags behind Pfizer [2] Group 3: Pipeline and Financials - 3SBio is increasing R&D investments with multiple pipelines expected to yield clinical data, including 705 (PD-1/HER2) and 706 (PD-1/PD-L1) in Phase II trials in China [3] - The core business fundamentals of 3SBio remain robust, with projected revenue of approximately 4.2 billion yuan in 2025, including 2.89 billion yuan from the upfront payment for 707 licensing [3] - Excluding the upfront payment, the internal business revenue of 3SBio is estimated to grow by about 9% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 37.43 HKD, supported by an estimated net cash position of approximately 13 billion yuan [4] - Confidence in 707 becoming a global blockbuster is reaffirmed due to Pfizer's unexpected clinical advancement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 37.43, representing a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HKD 24.08 [2][8]. Core Insights - Pfizer is rapidly advancing the global clinical development of 707/PF'4404 (PD-1/VEGF), with plans to initiate four Phase III trials in 2026 targeting five major indications. This development is expected to position Pfizer favorably in the competitive landscape of next-generation cancer immunotherapy [1][8]. - The collaboration between Pfizer and the company is anticipated to unlock significant global value for 707/PF'4404, serving as a key catalyst for the company's upward trajectory [1][8]. - The company is also increasing its R&D investments, with multiple pipelines expected to yield clinical data soon, enhancing the potential for external licensing opportunities [8][12]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 7,816 million, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8%. Projections for FY24A and FY25E are RMB 9,108 million and RMB 17,972 million, respectively, indicating a significant growth trajectory [2][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY23A was RMB 1,549 million, reflecting a decline of 19.1% year-on-year, but is expected to rebound to RMB 2,090 million in FY24A and surge to RMB 9,741 million in FY25E, marking a growth of 366.0% [2][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 3.84, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.6, indicating a strong valuation relative to earnings [2][15]. Market Position and Shareholder Structure - The company's market capitalization stands at HKD 61,115.2 million, with a 52-week stock price range of HKD 35.90 to HKD 6.01 [3][4]. - Major shareholders include TMF (Cayman) Ltd. with 22.8% and Decade Sunshine with 19.6%, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]. Clinical Development and Pipeline - The report highlights the competitive landscape for PD-(L)1/VEGF therapies, with Pfizer's strategy of combining IO with ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) as a unique advantage [1][8]. - The company has several promising candidates in its pipeline, including 705 (PD-1/HER2) and 706 (PD-1/PD-L1), which are currently in Phase II trials in China [8][12]. Valuation and Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the financial forecasts for FY25E and FY26E, reflecting a slight increase in revenue expectations due to the anticipated success of the 707 program [12][13]. - The DCF valuation analysis estimates a per-share value of HKD 37.43, based on a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.11% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [13][14].

Core Insights - Pfizer's stock has declined nearly 5% in a month, resulting in a loss of $7.3 billion in market capitalization due to disappointing financial guidance for 2026 [1][10] Financial Guidance - Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, a decline from the revised 2025 revenue expectation of around $62 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share for 2026 are projected to be in the range of $2.80-$3.00, down from the 2025 expected range of $3.00 and $3.15 [3] Oncology Business - Pfizer is a leading player in oncology, with oncology sales accounting for approximately 28% of total revenues [4][5] - Oncology revenues increased by 7% in the first nine months of 2025, driven by products like Xtandi and Padcev [5][10] - The company aims to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines by 2030 [5] Product Development and Acquisitions - Pfizer is expanding its product labels and has in-licensed rights to develop new oncology treatments, including a dual PD-1 and VEGF inhibitor [6][7] - Non-COVID operational revenues are improving, with new and acquired products expected to deliver double-digit growth in 2026 [8] - Pfizer invested approximately $1.6 billion in business development transactions in 2025, including the acquisition of Metsera [9] COVID Product Sales Decline - Sales of COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are declining due to lower vaccination and infection rates [12][14] - Pfizer anticipates COVID revenues to be around $5 billion in 2026, down from about $6.5 billion in 2025 [10][14] Upcoming Challenges - Pfizer faces significant revenue impacts from the loss of exclusivity for key products between 2026 and 2030, expected to reduce sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026 [15] - The redesign of Medicare Part D under the Inflation Reduction Act is also expected to negatively affect revenues [16] Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, losing 4.8% over the past year [17] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 8.36, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.81 [19] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has decreased from $3.15 to $3.02 per share over the past 60 days, reflecting a pessimistic outlook [22][26]