在日本财务大臣片山皋月明确释放可能出手干预汇市以遏制日元近期大幅贬值的信号后，日元继续走 强。法国兴业银行策略师Kit Juckes指出："当前汇率走势明显偏离可观察的基本面，叠加年末市场流动 性趋薄，构成了干预的有力背景，假日期间日本当局采取行动的风险显著上升。"他补充称，近期美元 兑日元的上涨固然引人注目，但欧元兑日元的升幅更为突出，进一步凸显日元整体承压的程度，也强化 了市场对当局干预的预期。 ...

文/冉学东 12月19日，日本央行全票通过加息决议，基准利率上调25bp至0.75%，创下自1995年以来的30年新高。 然而，日元对美元汇率却唱了反调，加息宣布后，日元走贬1.45%至157.5。 其实，此次加息前，市场就在担忧新政府上台后会干预货币政策，导致暂缓加息。这是由于新政府往往 倾向于宽松的货币条件以刺激经济增长和就业的扩张。 还有一个重要的点是，当前市场预期的通胀在2.5%-3%水准下，但日元名义利率只有0.75%，那么日元 实际利率处于-1.75%至-2.25%的负值区间。按照惯例，日本仍然面临极大的加息压力，这导致投资者对 日元资产仍然没有兴趣。 再加上，面临强大的通胀压力，同时又面临经济复苏起起伏伏，有鉴于刚刚走出30年的长周期的通缩压 力，日本在加息思路上仍然是举棋不定，如临深渊，战战兢兢。尤其要命的是，在通胀压力空前的情况 下，日本央行行长植田和男表态仍然措辞含混，态度模糊，只是说下一步看数据，这导致明年市场加息 预期仍然较为消极。 如果跟美联储比较，后者无论是前瞻指引还是实际行动，都旗帜鲜明，出手果断。目前联邦基金基准利 率目前是 3.50%-3.75%，11月核心消费者价格指数同比 ...

美国彭博社周一(12月22日)发布独家报道称，日本财务大臣片山皋月(Satsuki Katayama)表示，日本"有 充分的行动空间"，可对那些与基本面不相符的汇率波动采取大胆行动。这是她迄今为止对投机者发出 的最强警告。此前，即便在日本央行上调利率之后，日元仍出现走弱。 (截图来源：彭博社) 片山皋月周一在接受彭博采访时表示："这些走势显然不是由基本面驱动，而是投机行为所致。"她指的 是上周五日元大幅走弱。 片山皋月补充道："针对这种波动，我们已经明确表态将采取大胆行动，正如日本—美国财长联合声明 中所述。" 片山皋月的表态后，日元走强，升破1美元兑157日元关口。周二东京早盘，日元报约1美元兑156.75日 元。 在暗示可能进行直接汇率干预的同时，片山皋月也谈到，随着首相高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)政府推动更 强劲的经济增长——这也是投资者关注的另一大重点——日本的财政困境在短期内可能进一步恶化。 片山皋月发表上述言论之际，市场关于其所辖部门可能入市干预汇市的猜测再度升温。此前，在日本央 行进行了外界早已充分预期的加息操作、将借贷成本上调至30年来最高水平后，日元反而走弱。 片山皋月对当前外汇 ...

【导读】日本救汇率了 大家好，日本政府，刚刚向外汇市场发出"救市"信号。 日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，日本在面对与基本面不符的汇率波动时"有充分回旋余地"采取果断行动。 这是她迄今对投机资金最强硬的警告之一。此前，日本央行加息后日元仍走弱，引发市场对当局可能干 预的猜测。 "这些走势显然并不符合基本面，而更像是投机行为。"片山在接受采访时表示，指的是上周五日元的快 速贬值。"针对这类走势，我们已经明确表态将果断行动，这一点也写在日美财长联合声明里。" 片山在暗示可能进行直接汇市干预的同时，也谈到：随着高市早苗政府推动更强劲的经济增长，日本短 期内的财政压力可能会加大——这同样是投资者关注的重点。 片山的表态，发生在外界再度猜测财务省可能出手干预之际。此前日本央行在高度"预告"的情况下，将 借贷成本上调至30年来最高水平，但日元在加息后反而走弱。日本央行行长植田和男在会后记者会上的 发言，被部分市场人士解读为对再次加息的信号不够强硬，结果触发日元进一步下滑。 片山提到与美国的联合声明，意味着她认为日本已获得华盛顿方面的"默许"，必要时可在无需进一步协 商的情况下采取行动。她的前任加藤胜信与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森 ...

【导读】日本救汇率了 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，日本政府，刚刚向外汇市场发出"救市"信号。 日本财务大臣 片山皋月 表示，日本在面对与基本面不符的汇率波动时"有充分回旋余地"采取果断行 动。 这是她迄今对投机资金最强硬的警告之一。此前，日本央行加息后日元仍走弱，引发市场对当局 可能干预的猜测。 片山提到与美国的联合声明，意味着她认为日本已获得华盛顿方面的"默许"，必要时可在无需进一步协 商的情况下采取行动。她的前任加藤胜信与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在9月签署了该货币联合声明。 声明强调两国承诺让市场决定汇率，同时也确认：在某些情况下——包括汇率出现过度波动时期——仍 存在采取干预措施的空间。 片山说： "这就意味着我们有充分回旋余地（free hand）。" 消息出来之后，日元汇率短线上涨。 | 美元兑日元 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇 USDJPY | | | | | | | | 157.0900 -0.6600 -0.4184% | | | | | | | | 12-22 21:46:59 | | | | ...

12月14日，在韩元持续贬值的情况下，韩国政府紧急召开外汇市场应对会议，连同保健福祉部、产业通 商资源部也一并参与。 近期，韩元兑美元汇率延续贬值态势，韩国政府因此在周末召集紧急会议研究对策。 韩国企划财政部表示，副总理兼企划财政部长官具允哲于12月14日下午在政府首尔办公大楼主持召开由 相关机构联合参加的"紧急经济部长座谈会"，就国内外金融与外汇市场动向进行检查，并讨论应对方 向。 虽然会议结果并未对外发布单独声明，但政府在休息日的下午临时召集紧急会议，被解读为外汇市场波 动已到了不容忽视的程度。 本月，韩元兑美元平均汇率已突破1470韩元，创下金融危机以来的最高月度水平。12月12日，韩元汇率 在夜盘交易中，盘中一度跌至1美元兑1479韩元。 出席会议的包括具允哲副总理、金融委员会委员长（主席）李亿元、韩国银行行长李昌镛、金融监督院 院长李灿镇、总统室经济增长首席秘书官河俊庆，以及保健福祉部第一副部长李斯兰、产业通商资源部 产业政策室长朴东一。 此次会议参与范围超出通常的外汇主管部门，连保健福祉部与产业部也出席，外界认为这是为了更全面 地盘点与外汇供需相关的因素，例如国民年金的海外投资动向、出口企业持有的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the recent depreciation of the yen is not driven by fundamental factors, indicating potential intervention in the foreign exchange market to address excessive volatility and speculative movements [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The yen has experienced significant depreciation recently, which has raised concerns in the foreign exchange market [1] - The Finance Minister emphasized the need to monitor and potentially intervene in the currency market to stabilize the yen [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming speech from the Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, for any signals regarding a possible interest rate hike in the December meeting [1] - The statement aligns with the joint declaration made in September by Japan and the U.S., which asserted that exchange rates should be determined by market forces [1]

Group 1 - The core concern is the accelerated depreciation of the Japanese yen, which is now driven by fiscal deterioration rather than a strong US dollar, prompting heightened vigilance from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan [1][4] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar has approached historical lows, with the rate nearing 158 yen per dollar, raising concerns about inflation driven by rising import prices [1][3] - The current situation contrasts sharply with a similar depreciation observed in late 2024, where the government and central bank did not intervene, leading to a subsequent appreciation of the yen [1][3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's response to the yen's depreciation is notably more cautious this time, with Governor Ueda emphasizing the stability of import price increases compared to previous years [3][4] - Despite the yen's depreciation, there are no signs of overheating in domestic prices, which remain in a negative growth trend, indicating a complex economic landscape [4][5] - The current depreciation is attributed to the fiscal policies of the Kishida administration, which has raised concerns about potential consumer price increases and economic stagnation [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming mid-December monetary policy meetings between Japan and the US are seen as critical in determining the future trajectory of the yen, with market sentiment and potential interventions being closely monitored [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing accelerated depreciation, raising concerns from the government and the Bank of Japan, primarily due to fiscal deterioration rather than a strong US dollar [2][8]. Group 1: Current Situation of Yen Depreciation - The yen's exchange rate against the US dollar is nearing historical lows, with rates approaching 158 yen per dollar, indicating significant depreciation pressure as the year-end approaches [2]. - The current depreciation is contrasted with a similar situation a year ago, where the yen also depreciated but without intervention from the government or the Bank of Japan [4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Response - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, has expressed strong vigilance regarding the yen's depreciation, emphasizing the stability of import prices compared to previous years [6][8]. - The government has indicated a willingness to intervene in the currency market if the yen continues to depreciate rapidly, reflecting a shift in their stance compared to the previous year [9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The current depreciation is pushing up import prices, which in turn is affecting domestic consumer prices, a situation that the government aims to avoid to prevent economic stagnation [8]. - Unlike last year, where the depreciation was primarily driven by a strong dollar, the current situation is attributed to the government's aggressive fiscal policies, raising concerns about potential inflation [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee is projected to be the worst-performing currency in Asia by 2025, potentially experiencing its largest annual decline since 2022 due to various economic pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Indian Rupee has been under significant pressure, with a notable drop to 89.4812 Rupees per Dollar on November 21, indicating a possible cessation of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [2][5]. - The Rupee's decline began in January, with a brief recovery in March and April, peaking at 83.7538 Rupees per Dollar in early May, driven by optimism regarding trade agreements with the U.S. [4]. - The currency faced severe depreciation after the announcement of higher tariffs by the U.S. in July, leading to a record monthly decline since 2022 [4][10]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The primary reasons for the Rupee's weakness include increased tariffs on Indian exports by the U.S. and significant capital outflows from the Indian stock market, with foreign investors withdrawing nearly $16.3 billion in 2023 [2][4]. - The RBI has sold over $30 billion in foreign exchange assets since late July to stabilize the Rupee, but the currency continues to face downward pressure [2][9]. - The ongoing trade deficit and the need for foreign exchange to cover imports further weaken the Rupee, contrasting with other Asian currencies that maintain trade surpluses [11]. Group 3: RBI's Intervention Strategy - The RBI has historically intervened to stabilize the Rupee, primarily through the sale of foreign reserves, but has adopted a less interventionist approach under new leadership [6][10]. - The RBI's current foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $693 billion, sufficient to cover about 11 months of imports [6]. - The IMF has classified India's exchange rate regime as "crawling peg," indicating a shift towards gradual adjustments rather than aggressive interventions [6]. Group 4: Implications of Rupee Weakness - A weaker Rupee enhances the competitiveness of Indian exports, potentially offsetting the impact of tariffs as India seeks to expand its market through trade agreements [12]. - The depreciation of the Rupee benefits Indian expatriates by increasing the value of remittances, projected to reach a record $137 billion in 2024 [12]. - Conversely, the weaker currency raises the cost of imports, particularly for essential goods like oil and fertilizers, which India heavily relies on [12].