与法国总理辞职等内政混乱明显的欧洲的欧元（下跌1.6%）和8日央行启动大幅降息导致抛售增加的新 西兰元 (下跌1.5%) 相比，日元跌幅度更大。 瑞士金融巨头瑞银（UBS）认为"本周日元将是2024年9月以来最弱的一周"，同时指出："也 不能否认投机性日元多头头寸的进一步平仓导致暂时超跌至155日元的方向"。 高市在日本时间9日晚间的日本民营电视台的节目中表示："无意诱发日元过度贬值"。她还提 及日本政府和日本银行（央行）为早日摆脱通货紧缩、于2013年签署的共同声明，称："并 不认为有必要立即修改"。 尽管高市出现了调整自身货币宽松色彩的言论，但市场参与者也出现了试探日元汇率底部的 动向。外汇交易中介公司Forex.com的高级技术策略师Michael Boutros于9日就当前的日元 汇率强调称："这是减少日元部分持仓的好机会"。 "本周日元将是2024年9月以来最弱的一周"，瑞银这样指出。在10月9日的约外汇市场，日 元汇率在1美元兑153日元区间震荡。从7种主要货币对美元的贬值幅度来看，日元的贬值幅 度明显较大。高市9日晚间表示："无意诱发日元过度贬值"…… 在10月9日的美国纽约外汇市场，日元汇率在 ...

日央行连续第四次"按兵不动"后，日元应声走软，日本财务大臣直言担忧。 日元承压下行，市场聚焦155"干预水平" 周四，日央行决定维持利率在0.5%不变，这一鸽派立场导致日元大跌，跌破150关口，至3月以来最弱水平。 周五，日本财务大臣加藤胜信表达了对日元这一走势的担忧。他表示： "政府对货币市场的趋势深感担忧，包括投机行为。保持汇率稳定、反映经济基本面至关重要。" 截至发稿，日元兑美元汇率在150附近交易，日内跌0.13%。 日本央行周四的利率决议成为日元大幅下跌的催化剂。植田和男在会后新闻发布会上表示"日元汇率并未大幅偏离预 期"，其鸽派表态也打压了市场对日央行的加息预期。 "植田和男仍相当鸽派，因此我认为日元兑美元跌破155水平的可能性更大。" 瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori指出： "美国数据和美元走强将推高美元兑日元汇率，如果突破152，那么该货币对的下一个目标水平将是 155。" 风险提示及免责条款 Cranfield的分析基于日本财务省一个旧有的经验法则：一次迅速的10日元波动应首先会引发官员的口头警告，如有必 要，日本当局或许将采取实际的日元购买行动。 他指出，随着上周日元一度跌至145 ...

日本财务大臣表示，他对日元走势感到担忧。在日本央行释放鸽派信号后，日元贬值至3月以来的最低水平。 财务大臣加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）周五告诉记者，"政府深切关注外汇市场动向，包括投机性波动......汇率保持稳定、反映经济基本面至关重要。" 在加藤发表上述言论前，日元兑美元汇率于周四跌破150关口。此前日本央行决定维持利率不变，行长植田和男在会后新闻发布会上释放强烈鸽派信号，导 致市场对该央行近期收紧政策的猜测降温。 东京策略师警告，日元兑美元汇率可能贬值155——这一水平将让投资者警惕当局入市干预支撑日元的风险。 "如果日本央行不加息，日元有可能跌至155，"SBI流动性市场研究部总经理植田万里人（Marito Ueda）表示，届时"干预将是仅剩的选择"。 尽管加藤未就具体汇率水平置评，但他承认了解市场上的各种观点。截至发稿，日元兑美元汇率报150.60左右。 "植田仍相当鸽派，因此我认为日元跌破155的可能性更大，"福冈金融集团首席策略师佐佐木彻（Tohru Sasaki）表示，"我也不认为美联储今年会降息，若 降息预期持续消退，美元将被买入。" 彭博MLIV策略师马克·克兰菲尔德（Mark ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that the ECB does not intervene in any exchange rates [1] Group 1 - The ECB maintains a neutral stance regarding currency fluctuations, emphasizing its non-intervention policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that from May 25 to June 26, the scale of Japan's currency intervention was 0 yen [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government did not engage in any currency intervention during the specified period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the US Dollar this year, presenting a challenge for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to balance currency stability and economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Swiss Franc Appreciation - Global geopolitical risks have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc being a primary target due to Switzerland's stable political environment and neutral status [3]. - The weakness of the US Dollar, driven by disappointing economic data and a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, has created favorable conditions for the Swiss Franc's appreciation [3]. - Switzerland's low inflation rate and a long-standing non-intervention policy provide a solid foundation for the Swiss Franc, making it an attractive choice for investors looking for stable currencies [3]. Group 2: Dilemma of Central Bank Intervention - The SNB faces a core contradiction where the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, while reflecting market confidence, could harm export competitiveness, particularly affecting manufacturing and tourism sectors [4]. - Traditional tools for currency intervention, such as direct market operations and interest rate adjustments, may have limited effectiveness in the current complex global liquidity environment [4]. - The timing and magnitude of intervention are critical considerations for the SNB, as premature or excessive actions could signal a lack of confidence in the economy, while delayed interventions may exacerbate exchange rate misalignments [4].

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may replace tariffs as key tools in trade conflicts[2] - The U.S. average effective tariff increased by nearly 9 percentage points from 1896 to 1899, highlighting the historical reliance on tariffs[2] - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, exchange rate manipulation has become a significant weapon in international trade competition[2] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. international investment net gap is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2025, indicating unsustainable trends in trade deficits[3][31] - In 2024, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit reached $917.83 billion, a significant increase of $132.95 billion from the previous year[30] - The proportion of the U.S. trade deficit attributed to China decreased from 47.48% in 2018 to 24.33% in 2024, reverting to levels seen in 2004[34] Group 3: Future Trade Policies - The U.S. government may implement more non-tariff barriers and currency interventions if trade tensions escalate, similar to measures taken during the U.S.-Japan trade competition from 1970 to 1993[4] - The U.S. federal deficit is projected to reach historical highs, complicating efforts to reduce the deficit and impacting trade policy[4] Group 4: Strategies for Domestic Enterprises - Domestic companies are encouraged to explore non-U.S. export markets and adapt production capacities to meet European trade regulations[7] - The key to "exporting to domestic sales" lies in managing payment terms, with potential improvements in the policy environment for accounts receivable[7] - The "going abroad" strategy should focus on cost management, particularly labor costs, as domestic industries face challenges in maintaining competitiveness[7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent appreciation of Asian currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and New Taiwan dollar, amid a currency war initiated by the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, who has a history of currency speculation, is seen as a key player in this currency conflict, having previously targeted the British pound and Japanese yen [5][9] - The offshore yuan appreciated significantly, rising over 900 points in two days, while the New Taiwan dollar saw an unprecedented increase of over 9% [5][15] Group 2 - The article contrasts the strategies of hedge funds, which aim to devalue currencies for profit, with national strategies that typically seek to maintain or devalue their own currencies to support export-driven economies [6][7] - For export-oriented economies like Taiwan, a weaker currency is beneficial as it increases the profitability of exports, while a strong currency can harm competitiveness [8][14] - The article highlights the risks faced by Taiwanese financial institutions due to their heavy reliance on U.S. dollar assets and the lack of hedging against currency fluctuations, leading to significant losses amid the recent appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar [17][19] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar's situation is unique, as it is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the recent appreciation has led to concerns about maintaining this peg [20][21] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened by selling over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars to stabilize the currency, resulting in increased U.S. dollar reserves [21][22] - The article warns of potential asset bubbles in Hong Kong due to the influx of capital, which could pose risks if the market experiences a sudden withdrawal of funds [23] Group 4 - The Chinese yuan's stability is emphasized, with the article noting that it has only appreciated by less than 2% despite a 9% depreciation of the U.S. dollar since January [23][24] - Regulatory interventions are expected if the yuan's exchange rate fluctuates significantly, with historical patterns indicating intervention at certain thresholds [25][26] - The article concludes that while a stronger yuan could attract capital inflows, it is also a bargaining chip for the U.S. in trade negotiations, suggesting that the yuan's appreciation is not straightforward [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Cape Town is addressing the challenges of differentiated growth, inflation pressures, and debt restructuring, with significant implications for global economic stability [3]. Group 1: Meeting Background and Strategic Significance - The G20 represents 85% of global GDP and 80% of trade, making its policy coordination crucial for global economic stability [3]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the G20 has taken actions such as crisis response, coordinated monetary policies, and debt relief initiatives to mitigate systemic risks [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Landscape Analysis - The global economy is experiencing a "three-speed" growth pattern, with widening growth disparities among developed economies, emerging markets, and vulnerable countries [4]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2024 show varied rates: - Developed economies: - USA: 2.8% driven by service sector resilience and AI investments [4] - Eurozone: 0.4% influenced by falling energy prices [4] - Japan: 1.2% due to yen depreciation boosting exports [4] - Emerging markets: - India: 5.6% supported by infrastructure investment and digital payments [4] - Brazil: 1.4% with iron ore export recovery [4] - Southeast Asia: 4.1% from the shift in electronic manufacturing [4] - Vulnerable economies: - Sub-Saharan Africa: 3.0% driven by mineral development investments [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - Major central banks are exhibiting divergent policy stances, leading to increased market volatility [5]. - The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.5% while accelerating balance sheet reduction, impacting global liquidity [6]. - The European Central Bank has initiated a rate cut cycle while engaging in quantitative tightening [6]. - Japan has exited negative interest rates, raising its policy rate to 0.1% [6]. Group 4: Key Issues and Potential Breakthroughs - The meeting will focus on global trade rule restructuring, particularly regarding digital taxes and supply chain security [6]. - There are ongoing disputes over digital service taxes, with the EU proposing a 7% global minimum tax on large tech firms [6]. - The potential for a multilateral agreement on mineral supply chain security is being discussed, given China's dominance in rare earth processing [6]. Group 5: Debt Restructuring Mechanisms - The meeting may lead to innovative approaches to debt restructuring, addressing the rising debt-to-GDP ratios in various countries [7]. - The U.S. has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 132%, Japan at 263%, and Italy at 152% [6]. Group 6: Market Impact Projections - If consensus on currency intervention is reached, the U.S. dollar index may decline from 104 to 100, enhancing arbitrage opportunities for emerging market currencies [13]. - A successful sovereign debt restructuring could lead to a rebound in bond prices for defaulting nations [13]. - The establishment of a unified green finance standard could direct over $500 billion annually towards renewable energy infrastructure [13].