1月6日上午，蔚来汽车（下称"蔚来"）第100万台量产车在安徽合肥蔚来先进制造新桥二工厂下线。 （文章来源：国际金融报） 蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在群访环节中对于市场关注的刚刚过去的2025年四季度是否实现盈利， 回应称自己对四季度盈利有信心。他说，从公司运营口径来看，三季度虽然亏损27亿元，但四季度多交 付了4万多辆全新ES8，单季毛利率可达20%以上，对应毛利额有显著增长，且公司费用控制保持良好水 平，结合"毛利减费用"的基本逻辑，盈利具备扎实基础。不过其强调，最终财务数据仍需等待审计确 认。 ...

文｜新能源观 2025年前9个月，我国新能源汽车产销量便双双突破千万辆，再次迎来了一个历史性的转折点。 图/2025年1-9月新能源车产销双超1100万辆 几乎是在同一个时间节点，昔日"卖一辆亏一辆"的新造车品牌们，或扭亏为盈或亏损大幅收窄，并向盈利发起猛攻。 近期，头部新造车品牌披露的三季报显示，除了率先实现盈利的理想汽车出现了短期承压、由盈转亏的情况，其他几位头部玩家的财报都相对亮眼。 其中，零跑汽车在2025年上半年成功扭亏为盈后，三季度持续盈利；小米汽车在三季度斩获了首季盈利；小鹏和蔚来虽然仍处于亏损当中，但亏损大幅收 窄，并多次明确2025年四季度为盈利冲刺节点。 从"烧钱换市场"到"价值创造"的跨越，新造车品牌们似乎正在告别持续亏损的阵痛期。而这背后，是技术自研与产品布局的双重突破。 1. 新造车头部企业摆脱"越卖越亏"魔咒？ "一季度每卖一辆车亏损4.9万元，二季度每卖一辆车亏损6.39万元""平均每卖一辆车亏超8万元""每个季度亏损约50亿元"……昔日，"卖一辆亏一辆，卖得越 多亏得越多"被看成是新造车品牌们最大的标签之一。 然而，随着新能源汽车产销规模的不断突破，以及市场渗透率的进一步提升， ...

Core Insights - The delivery rankings of new car manufacturers have undergone significant changes in November, with a reshuffling of positions following the "golden September and silver October" period [1] Group 1: Delivery Rankings - Hongmeng Zhixing topped the delivery chart with 81,864 units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 90% and a month-on-month increase of 20% [2][3] - Leap Motor maintained its position as the "single brand champion" with 70,327 units delivered, marking its second consecutive month above 70,000 [4] - Xiaomi entered the top three with over 40,000 units, while BYD's Fangchengbao emerged as a dark horse with 37,405 units [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In the second tier, brands like Xiaopeng (36,728 units) and NIO (36,275 units) are in close competition, with Ideal (33,181 units) and Deep Blue (33,060 units) also in the mix [5][21] - Zeekr accelerated its growth with 28,843 units, while Lantu broke the 20,000 mark for the first time [6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Challenges - Despite high delivery numbers, companies like Leap Motor face challenges in profitability, with a net profit of 150 million yuan in Q3, down 8% from the previous quarter [12][13] - Xiaomi's automotive division reported a 700 million yuan operating profit in Q3, making it the fastest to achieve profitability among new forces, yet its stock price has been under pressure due to negative publicity [14][15] - NIO's stock fell 20% in November after lowering its Q4 delivery guidance, indicating challenges in meeting profitability targets [24][30] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Xiaopeng is transitioning to a dual strategy of pure electric and range-extended vehicles, with plans to launch three new range-extended models in Q1 next year [19][20] - NIO is focusing on high-end models to improve overall gross margins, while also facing pressure to enhance profitability [22][26] - Ideal is adjusting its organizational structure and technology to address ongoing challenges, with a focus on ramping up production of its new electric model [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - The delivery rankings of new car manufacturers have undergone significant changes in November, with a reshuffling of positions following the "golden September and silver October" period, highlighting the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market [4][6]. Group 1: Delivery Rankings - Hongmeng Zhixing topped the delivery chart with 81,864 vehicles delivered, a year-on-year increase of 90% and a month-on-month increase of 20%, becoming the "alliance leader" among new forces [5][10]. - Leap Motor maintained its position as the "single brand champion" with 70,327 vehicles delivered, indicating a strong competitive dynamic between the top two players [6][17]. - Xiaomi entered the third position with over 40,000 vehicles delivered, while BYD's Fangchengbao emerged as a dark horse with 37,405 vehicles, intensifying competition in the 30,000 to 40,000 vehicle range [7][19]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second tier of manufacturers is characterized by fierce competition, with brands like Xiaopeng and NIO facing challenges in maintaining their delivery volumes amid strategic adjustments and market pressures [24][26]. - NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of 76.3%, but faced stock price declines due to lowered fourth-quarter delivery guidance [28][29]. - Li Auto's deliveries reached 33,181 vehicles, showing signs of recovery, but the company still faces challenges in scaling production and maintaining profitability [32]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - Xiaomi's automotive division reported a significant operating profit of 700 million yuan in Q3, making it the fastest profitable new force, despite facing negative market sentiment due to various controversies [20][21]. - Leap Motor's stock price fell by 9% in November, raising concerns about its ability to balance scale and profitability, especially in competitive price segments [17][18]. - The overall market sentiment reflects a growing scrutiny on profitability and sustainability, with companies needing to demonstrate not just sales growth but also healthy financial performance to meet investor expectations [36][37].

Core Insights - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun emphasized a pragmatic approach in the recent launch of the 500,000th car, focusing on safety and delivery while accelerating production [2][3] - Xiaomi's automotive division has achieved profitability, a significant turnaround from a projected loss of 60,000 yuan per vehicle in 2024 [3][10] Financial Performance - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter exceeding 100 billion yuan [3][5] - Adjusted net profit reached 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year, setting a historical record [3][5] - The automotive business generated 29 billion yuan in revenue for Q3, a staggering 199.2% increase year-on-year, with electric vehicle revenue alone at 28.3 billion yuan, up 197.9% from the previous year [3][5][16] Production Milestones - Xiaomi achieved the milestone of producing 500,000 vehicles in just 602 days, the fastest record for any global new energy vehicle company [9][10] - The average net profit per vehicle sold is 6,434 yuan, indicating a shift from initial investment to profitability [9][10] Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi's automotive division is now recognized for its established R&D, manufacturing, sales, delivery, and service systems, which are crucial for meeting market demand [9][10] - The company plans to invest 200 billion yuan in R&D over the next five years, focusing on AI and smart manufacturing integration [9][10] Competitive Landscape - Compared to competitors like NIO and Xpeng, which have not yet achieved profitability, Xiaomi's rapid success highlights its effective business model [11][14] - Xiaomi's automotive gross margin remains competitive, with a slight decrease to 25.5% in Q3, still among the highest in the industry [18][19]

Core Insights - NIO reported significant growth in Q3 2025, with vehicle deliveries and revenue increasing both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, alongside improved profitability and a record guidance for Q4 [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO delivered 87,071 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [1] - The company achieved revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net loss narrowed to 3.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.2% from 5.06 billion yuan in the same quarter of 2024 and a 30.3% reduction from 4.99 billion yuan in Q2 2025 [1] - Gross margin improved to 13.9%, the highest in nearly three years, with vehicle gross margin reaching 14.7%, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Q4 Guidance - NIO expects Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to range between 120,000 and 125,000 units, with total revenue projected between 32.76 billion and 34.04 billion yuan, both representing historical highs [2] Long-term Strategy - The company aims for profitability in 2026, focusing on the high-end electric vehicle market with plans to launch multiple new models in 2026 [3] - NIO anticipates that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the high-end market (over 300,000 yuan) will continue to grow, having increased from 12% last year to 18% in Q3 2025 [3] - The company plans to leverage high-margin models to boost overall gross margin, targeting a gross margin of 20% by 2026 [3] Market Impact and Policy Response - The recent reduction in vehicle replacement subsidies has impacted lower-priced models, but NIO has committed to policy support for existing orders [3] - The upcoming half reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax is expected to have a limited impact on NIO due to the BaaS battery rental model [4]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's founder and CEO, Li Bin, emphasizes the importance of balancing long-term goals with short-term operational objectives to ensure the company's stability and responsibility towards users [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - In September, NIO delivered approximately 34,700 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 64% [7]. - The breakdown of deliveries includes about 13,700 vehicles from the NIO brand, 15,200 from the Ladao brand, and 5,775 from the Firefly brand, with Ladao consistently outperforming NIO [7]. - Recent data indicates that NIO's weekly deliveries surpassed 10,600 vehicles in the third week of October, suggesting a monthly delivery capacity exceeding 40,000 vehicles [7]. Group 2: Production Capacity - NIO is systematically increasing its production capacity, with the monthly capacity for the L90 model rising from approximately 10,000 units in August and September to 15,000 units starting in October [7]. - The new ES8 model's production capacity will also gradually increase to 15,000 units, allowing for a significant reduction in user delivery wait times [7]. - By the fourth quarter, the total production capacity across NIO's three brands is expected to approach 56,000 units, with average monthly sales projected to rise from 35,000 units in the third quarter to 50,000 units [7]. Group 3: Financial Goals - Li Bin reiterated the necessity of achieving profitability in the fourth quarter as a measure of the team's operational efficiency and capability [7].

Core Viewpoint - NIO aims to achieve profitability in Q4, which is seen as a testament to the operational efficiency and management capabilities of the team [1][17] Sales Performance - NIO's overall sales exceeded 30,000 units in August and further increased to 34,749 units in September, marking a year-on-year growth of 64% [3] - In the third week of October, NIO's weekly deliveries surpassed 10,600 units, indicating a monthly delivery capacity that could exceed 40,000 units [4] - The successful launch and delivery of the ET9 and the new ES8 have created a strong demand and solid inventory, contributing to the sales growth [4][6] Production Capacity - NIO is systematically increasing production capacity, with the monthly capacity for the ET9 set to rise from 10,000 to 15,000 units starting in October, while the new ES8 will also gradually increase to 15,000 units [6] - The total production capacity across NIO's three brands is expected to approach 56,000 units, with average monthly sales projected to rise from 35,000 in Q3 to 50,000 in Q4 [6] Product Strategy - NIO's pricing strategy has been restructured, with the ET9 priced below 300,000 yuan, breaking market expectations for large three-row electric SUVs [9] - The new ES8 targets the 400,000 yuan price range, enhancing market competitiveness while maintaining a strong product lineup [9] - NIO's focus on large electric SUVs addresses consumer demand for spacious and comfortable vehicles, with the ET9 and ES8 offering significant advantages in passenger and cargo space [10] Technological Advancements - NIO's extensive investment in technology over the past decade, exceeding 60 billion yuan, has resulted in nearly 10,000 patents, enhancing the competitiveness of its products [12] - The company's charging and battery swap network has become a core advantage, with over 8,303 charging and battery swap stations established nationwide [12] Organizational Efficiency - NIO has optimized its organizational structure and project management, significantly improving product development and delivery efficiency [13] - The company's long-term commitment to core principles, combined with short-term market adaptability, has positioned it for success [13] Market Positioning - NIO is redefining the "high-end new energy" market landscape, with the ET9 and new ES8 serving as pivotal products in this transition [17] - The company is seen as a pioneer in the large three-row pure electric SUV segment, addressing a previously unmet consumer demand [16]

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) market is shifting focus towards profitability, with major players setting clear targets for achieving positive earnings by the end of 2025, moving away from reliance on subsidies and external investments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Profitability Targets - NIO's founder, Li Bin, stated that the company must achieve quarterly profitability by Q4 2025, relying solely on operational capabilities [1]. - XPeng's founder, He Xiaopeng, also indicated that XPeng aims for profitability by Q4 2025 [2]. - Xiaomi's founder, Lei Jun, mentioned that losses in Xiaomi's automotive business are narrowing, with expectations to achieve profitability between Q3 and Q4 of this year [3]. Group 2: Current Financial Performance - Li Auto achieved a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in Q2, while Leap Motor reported a net profit of 160 million yuan [6]. - Li Auto's revenue for Q2 was 30.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, with R&D and marketing expenses also declining [9]. - Leap Motor is in an expansion phase, with significant increases in marketing and R&D expenses, yet still maintaining profitability [8]. Group 3: Strategies for Profitability - Xiaomi is focusing on increasing revenue while also investing more, with automotive revenue reaching 20.6 billion yuan, more than double the previous year's figure [16]. - XPeng's revenue grew by 125.3% year-on-year, with a focus on smart technology investments while maintaining efficient R&D spending [21]. - NIO is implementing cost-cutting measures, with a significant reduction in sales and management expenses, aiming to narrow losses to 4.9 billion yuan in Q2 [25]. Group 4: Market Positioning and Challenges - Li Auto is facing challenges with declining sales and revenue, with a projected Q3 sales guidance of only 90,000 to 95,000 units, down from 111,000 in Q2 [11]. - NIO's strategy involves maintaining a pure electric model while facing challenges in scaling its battery swap stations, which require a significant vehicle ownership base to become profitable [40]. - Leap Motor and XPeng are working to diversify their brand identities beyond just "cost-performance" to enhance their market positioning [32]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The EV market is entering a mature phase, with companies focusing on transitioning to profitable operations while navigating technological advancements such as L3 autonomous driving [48]. - The success of new product launches will be critical, as failures could significantly impact a company's market position and viability [48].

Core Viewpoint - NIO Inc. plans to issue 181.8 million Class A ordinary shares, including American Depositary Shares (ADS), to fund research and development of core technologies for smart electric vehicles, expand battery swapping and charging networks, and strengthen its balance sheet for long-term growth [2]. Financial Performance - In Q2, NIO reported revenue of 19.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9% [2]. - Cash reserves increased to 27.2 billion yuan, with R&D expenditure reaching 3.01 billion yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin was 10.0%, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement, while the gross margin for other sales turned positive at 8.2%, marking a historical high [2]. Vehicle Deliveries - In August, NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, achieving a historical high [2]. - Breakdown of deliveries includes 10,525 vehicles from the NIO brand, 16,434 from the Ladao brand, and 4,346 from the Firefly brand [2]. Strategic Goals - NIO's CEO emphasized the necessity of achieving profitability in Q4, citing the launch of nine new products and the completion of the sales service network and battery swap station construction as critical factors [3].