Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core View - With signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the EUA price has slightly declined. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [1] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.51 euro/ton (-1.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.35. On June 16, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324,550 tons, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euro/ton, and the auction revenue was 24,1820,000 euro [1][2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.34 euro/ton (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 29,700 lots (0.00 change). The spot settlement price dropped 0.79% to 75 euro/ton, and the spot trading volume increased 0.70% to 2,962 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.86 dollars/TEU [1][3] Bullish Factors - The EU is ready to accept a conditional 10% unified US tariff. There are differences in the market regarding the systematic impact of corrosion problems on the relatively new French Civaux 2 nuclear power plant [1] Bearish Factors - Austria calls for re - evaluating the EU's ban on Russian fossil fuel imports under the condition of peace in Ukraine. The US says it will postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and negotiate, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. Russia is slowly restarting the TurkStream pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe [1]

欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第97期) 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 ☆ 欲获取更多碳交易研究产品, 请咨询对口销售。 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 联系电话:021-33037830 国泰君安期货 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 苦给您造成不便, 教请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资并。本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产 叙。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分冈赛。 发布日期:2025-06-10 继续 ...

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Quotes Briefing (Issue No. 91, 2025) [1] Report Date - 2025-05-30 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - TTF dropped significantly, and EUA followed weakly [2] - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Primary Market**: The auction price and bid coverage ratio are not available [2] - **Secondary Market**: EUA futures settled at 70.94 euros/ton (-1.57%), with a trading volume of 24,700 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - Short-term outlook is neutral to bullish, while the medium-term shows an oscillation range between €67 and €75 [2] Core Logic - **Likely Positive Factors**: German Economy Minister urges the EU Commission to approve electricity subsidies for German energy-intensive enterprises [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Thursday is a public holiday in most EU countries, potentially leading to weak buyer demand; The US Federal Appellate Court temporarily halted the ruling to enforce a tariff administrative order [2][3] Charts - **Chart 1**: EU Emission Allowance (EUA) latest auction market information, including auction volume, price, CBAM certificate price, bid coverage ratio, and auction revenue [4] - **Chart 2**: EUA auction price trend - Seasonal chart [4] - **Chart 3**: EUA auction bid coverage ratio - Seasonal chart [4] - **Chart 4**: EU Emission Allowance (EUA) market information - Futures and spot, including futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, spot settlement price, trading volume, shipping carbon cost, and freight ratio [5] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis [5] - **Chart 6**: December contract open interest - Seasonal chart [5]