Market Overview - The trading data for December 2025 shows significant fluctuations in prices and volumes, with a total trading volume of 5.08 million tons and a total trading value of 2290 million yuan [1][2]. Price Trends - The closing prices for the last three days of December 2025 were 1.28 yuan/ton, 3.07 yuan/ton, and 0.73 yuan/ton, indicating a notable increase on December 30 before a drop on December 31 [1][2]. - The highest price recorded was 3.07 yuan/ton on December 30, while the lowest was 0.73 yuan/ton on December 31 [1]. Regional Performance - In terms of regional trading volumes, Hubei recorded 4.31 million tons, Guangdong 9.95 million tons, and Fujian 10 million tons, indicating strong activity in these areas [3]. - The trading value in Guangdong was 6.28 billion yuan, while Hubei and Shenzhen had values of 3.07 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively [3]. Summary of Trading Activity - The total trading volume across all regions was 2290 million yuan, with a significant contribution from Hubei and Guangdong [2][3]. - The average trading price varied, with notable prices of 4.00 euros/ton on December 29 and 5.50 euros/ton on December 30 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual emergence of compliance pressure and the basic release of mandatory circulation quotas, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [3] - Since late October, affected by non - market factors, power generation groups have started to jointly support prices, leading to increased carbon price fluctuations [3] - The increase in the basic carry - over quota of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries to 100,000 tons is positive for carbon prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **CEA**: Quotas rose across the board, with a more than 38% decline in trading volume. There were 1.146 million tons in the listing and 0.909 million tons in the bulk trading [3] - **CCER**: The listing agreement trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the average trading price was 72.00 yuan/ton, with a 1.53% change [3][8] Price and Volume Details - **CEA Price and Change**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 67.65 yuan/ton, 67.06 yuan/ton, 66.96 yuan/ton, 65.01 yuan/ton, and 67.63 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 10.00%, 7.83%, 8.21%, 6.16%, and 9.08% [6] - **CEA Trading Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 5,000 tons, 17,000 tons, 53,800 tons, 368,300 tons, and 1.6109 million tons respectively [6] - **CCER Trading Information**: The average trading price was 72.00 yuan/ton, with a 1.53% change. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, the trading amount was 1.441 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 4.5797 million tons [8] Strategy - The signal strength for the day is 2 (0 means empty position, ±1 means slightly bullish/bearish, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected to occur around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6]. - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. Starting from September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - CEA24 single - item auction was sold at the reserve price with a 95% unsold rate due to price - raising behavior yesterday [4]. - For CEA, the main targets declined to varying degrees, with 36.4 tons listed and 89.7 tons in bulk transactions [4]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 0.24 tons, and the average transaction price was 80.97 yuan/ton, a 1.21% change [4]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Data | CEA Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.00 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 69.72 | - 0.83% | - 0.28 | N/A | 1.05 | 1.05 | | CEA23 | 69.11 | - 0.59% | - 0.61 | 66.48 | 62.33 | 15.19 | | CEA24 | 69.42 | - 0.52% | 0.31 | 69.34 | 63.28 | 20.20 | [8] CCER Data - The average transaction price of CCER was 80.97 yuan/ton, with a 1.21% change, a trading volume of 0.24 tons, and a turnover of 19.11 million yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 250.40 tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core View - With signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the EUA price has slightly declined. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [1] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.51 euro/ton (-1.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.35. On June 16, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324,550 tons, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euro/ton, and the auction revenue was 24,1820,000 euro [1][2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.34 euro/ton (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 29,700 lots (0.00 change). The spot settlement price dropped 0.79% to 75 euro/ton, and the spot trading volume increased 0.70% to 2,962 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.86 dollars/TEU [1][3] Bullish Factors - The EU is ready to accept a conditional 10% unified US tariff. There are differences in the market regarding the systematic impact of corrosion problems on the relatively new French Civaux 2 nuclear power plant [1] Bearish Factors - Austria calls for re - evaluating the EU's ban on Russian fossil fuel imports under the condition of peace in Ukraine. The US says it will postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and negotiate, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. Russia is slowly restarting the TurkStream pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe [1]