【现货方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 供应：截止11月21日，PTA负荷下调至71%（-4.7%）。 需求：截至11月21日，聚酯负荷有所提升至91.3%附近（+1%）。11月24日，涤丝价格重心局部上调， 产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外销放量，价格上涨。目 前工厂库存较低但下游销量有所下滑，涤丝价格以稳定为主。后期继续关注下游销量和印度BIS认证情 况。 【行情展望】 随着华东2套PTA装置检修落地，且聚酯开工在内需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口有望增加，PTA供需预期明显修复，PTA基差阶段性修复。平衡表来看，11-12月PTA供需预期 偏紧；不过12月至1季度PTA供需预期整体偏宽松。绝对价格来看，近 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation. The spot basis strengthened slightly, with limited offers from polyester factories. Transactions for November were reported at a discount of 70-72 for January contracts, with some lower at 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4580-4645 [1] - For December, transactions were noted at a discount of 65 for early December and 55-58 for late December, while November warehouse receipts were traded around 50 [1] Profitability - As of November 18, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 186 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 237 yuan/ton and 262 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of November 14, PTA operating rates were at 75.7%, a decrease of 0.7%. A 2.5 million ton PTA facility in East China was scheduled for maintenance for about a week, and another 2.2 million ton PTA unit in Ningbo was planned for maintenance on November 20 [3] - Demand: By November 14, several bottle chip and filament facilities were under maintenance, leading to a decrease in polyester operating rates to approximately 90.3%, down by 1%. On November 18, the price of polyester filament showed minor adjustments, with overall sales being weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India has led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, boosting exports of FDY fine denier yarn and resulting in price increases. Current factory inventories are low, and as the peak season comes to an end, short-term prices are expected to remain stable with limited downside [3] Market Outlook - This week, with two PTA facilities in East China undergoing maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply-demand balance for PTA in November is tight, but expectations for December and the first quarter of next year lean towards a more relaxed supply-demand situation, limiting upward pressure on the basis. Absolute prices are currently supported by demand for adjusted oil and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, although recent speculative trading in oil has cooled down, and the actual impact of the BIS certification cancellation on exports remains to be seen. Coupled with limited overall support from oil prices, the rebound potential for PTA remains constrained. The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the 4500-4800 range in the short term, with a rolling reverse spread approach [4]