Supply and Demand - PTA supply is tightening as Jia Tong's 3 million tons capacity resumes and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million tons unit increases load, leading to a PTA load increase to 76.9% (+4.4%) [3] - Demand is also rising with the opening of a long filament unit and a bottle chip unit, pushing polyester comprehensive load to 95.3% (+1.1%) [3] - The operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are improving, with texturing, weaving, and dyeing loads at 80% (+3%), 68% (+3%), and 77% (+4%) respectively [3] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to remain tight in the short term due to concentrated maintenance of PTA units and high polyester operating rates [4] - However, with PTA units set to restart in late May and unclear future maintenance plans, there are concerns about potential weakening in supply-demand dynamics as downstream polyester products face losses [4] - Strategies suggest that TA09 may face short-term pullback pressure, but supply-demand remains strong, indicating high-level fluctuations [4]

供应：上周百宏250万吨，逸盛大化375万吨，台化120万吨重启，嘉通300万吨检修，PTA负荷调整至 78.9%（+3.5%）。 需求：上周聚酯综合负荷小幅回落至93.6%（-0.2%），其中瓶片提负，短纤装置重启，长丝有装置检修 和局部降负。4月28日，涤丝价格重心上涨，产销整体一般。原料价格小幅抬升以及涤丝的低价刺激了 下游进行小幅的投机，上周五、六均有所放量，目前涤丝工厂去库明显，但目前下游需求依然不足。涤 丝利润下滑严重，尤其是FDY已全面亏损。原油目前相对坚挺，WTI在60-65美元震荡，丝价短期内还 是震荡的走势。聚酯工厂近期还是以挺价为主，涨价依旧需要需求带动。 【行情展望】 5月PTA装置检修计划较多，且短期下游聚酯库存压力有所缓解，预计聚酯维持高开工短期尚可维持， PTA供需延续偏紧格局。叠加部分供应商缩减5月合约供应，以及随着五一假期临近，聚酯工厂备货需 求提升，PTA库存加速向下转移，短期PTA基差偏强。PTA供需驱动转强，叠加PX和PTA估值均偏低， PTA价格支撑偏强。近期PTA走势较油价相对坚挺，PTA和原油价差有所走扩，不过需求端负反馈以及 油价驱动有限或压制PTA反弹空间。策 ...