Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PTA prices declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. At the end of the year, terminal demand weakened, loom operating rates steadily declined, and polyester load dropped to the lowest point of the year. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans, and the supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. Crude oil weakened, leading to the decline of PTA [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of PTA has slightly weakened. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans. Around the Spring Festival, the terminal will have holidays, and polyester load will drop to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. From the cost side, the Zhonghua Quanzhou PX plant restarted at the end of January, and there are no maintenance plans in February. With high PX profits, it is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will operate at a high level in February. Currently, oil prices are generally at a high level, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. If geopolitical risks do not expand further, oil prices have a downward pressure, and the cost side may drag down PTA. Geopolitical risks should be monitored in February [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, PTA declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, down 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined, and polyester load dropped to the annual low. In February, PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, with significant inventory build - up. Crude oil weakened, causing PTA to fall [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to watch include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | PTA - related Index | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,270.00 | 5,400.00 | - 130.00 | - 2.41% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 142.87 | 139.28 | 3.59 | 2.58% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 81.71 | 85.52 | - 3.81 | - 4.46% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 42.41 | 51.20 | - 8.79 | - 17.17% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 316 | 357 | - 41.00 | - 11.48% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 5,050 | 5,120 | - 70.00 | - 1.37% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, and MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [8][9][10]. PX Supply - There are figures presenting PX production in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market - There is a figure showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are figures showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [22][26]. PTA Consumption - There are figures showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament and staple fiber, and loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][32]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [38].

Market Overview - On December 24, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a slight weakening of the spot basis. The December contract was traded at a discount of 19, with prices ranging from 4975 to 5060 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 221 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601, TA2603, and TA2605 were 315, 292, and 327 yuan/ton respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of December 19, the production load of the 1.25 million ton PTA unit operated by INEOS was reduced, with a potential shutdown in the future, resulting in a PTA load of 73.2%, a decrease of 0.5% [1] - Demand: As of December 19, the polyester load slightly decreased to 91.1%, down by 0.1%. On December 24, the price of polyester filament adjusted locally, with overall production and sales remaining weak. Recent raw material price increases exceeded expectations, leading to increased downstream replenishment last Thursday and Friday, resulting in a slight increase in production and sales. However, the rapid reduction in downstream production loads indicates that it will take time to digest social inventory, which may shift inventory pressure back to factories in the near future [1] Market Outlook - With the significant rise in raw material PX prices, PTA and polyester product prices have also increased. Currently, there is not much supply-demand pressure on PTA, as maintenance of PTA units was concentrated in November and December, and polyester operating rates remain high due to domestic and international demand support. Additionally, the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to increase PTA export prospects, leading to a tighter supply-demand pattern in November and December, with PTA processing fees recovering [1] - In terms of absolute prices, PTA is expected to face maintenance of units in the first quarter under low processing fees, while seasonal reductions in polyester production before and after the Spring Festival may lead to inventory accumulation expectations for PTA in the first quarter. Furthermore, some major polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, limiting the upward momentum for PTA prices. The strategy suggests a cautious view on current prices following the rise in PX, with recommendations to reduce positions on highs and a mid-term bullish outlook [1]

库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，本周PTA工厂库存在3.76天，较上周-0.1天，较去年同期-0.06 天；聚酯工厂PTA原料库存在7.6天，较上周+0.4天，较去年同期-0.3天。 后市来看，新湖期货表示，短期PTA供应收缩幅度并不大，加之需求季节性回落，逐步进入季节性累库 周期。不过当时市场交易PTA长期供需格局好转叠加PX偏强运行，PTA跟随成本偏强为主。 12月23日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，PTA期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约报 5050.00元/吨，涨幅1.73%。 供应方面，国信期货指出，PTA存量检修较多，短期供应偏紧去库，本周YS宁波计划重启，市场供应 预期回升。 需求端，中辉期货分析称，下游需求尚可但预期走弱，其中聚酯开工维持高位，但织造开工负荷持续下 行，订单延续走弱态势。 ...

Market Overview - On November 24, PTA futures experienced a rise followed by a decline, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market. The spot basis strengthened, and some polyester factories made offers. Mainstream suppliers provided forward cargoes, with trading in the range of 4590 to 4665 for the 01 contract [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 212 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 244 yuan/ton and 253 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - As of November 21, PTA operating rates were reduced to 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. In contrast, polyester operating rates increased to around 91.3%, an increase of 1% [3] - On November 24, the price of polyester yarn saw a slight increase, although overall sales remained weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, resulting in a rise in exports of FDY fine denier yarn. Current factory inventories are low, but downstream sales have declined, leading to stable prices for polyester yarn. Future attention will be on downstream sales and the status of India's BIS certification [3] Price Outlook - With two PTA units in East China undergoing maintenance and the expected delay in domestic demand support for polyester, coupled with the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA exports are expected to increase. This indicates a significant recovery in PTA supply and demand expectations, with a phase of basis recovery for PTA [4] - The supply-demand outlook for PTA is expected to be tight from November to December, but overall, it is anticipated to be loose from December to the first quarter. Absolute prices for PTA are currently supported by oil demand and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, although the overall support from oil prices is limited, restricting the rebound potential for PTA [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term high-level fluctuation for TA, with the possibility of a phase of low-level positive spread [4]

Supply and Demand - PTA supply is tightening as Jia Tong's 3 million tons capacity resumes and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million tons unit increases load, leading to a PTA load increase to 76.9% (+4.4%) [3] - Demand is also rising with the opening of a long filament unit and a bottle chip unit, pushing polyester comprehensive load to 95.3% (+1.1%) [3] - The operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are improving, with texturing, weaving, and dyeing loads at 80% (+3%), 68% (+3%), and 77% (+4%) respectively [3] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to remain tight in the short term due to concentrated maintenance of PTA units and high polyester operating rates [4] - However, with PTA units set to restart in late May and unclear future maintenance plans, there are concerns about potential weakening in supply-demand dynamics as downstream polyester products face losses [4] - Strategies suggest that TA09 may face short-term pullback pressure, but supply-demand remains strong, indicating high-level fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].

Market Overview - On April 28, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis strengthened before retreating, with trading mainly conducted by traders and some mainstream suppliers quoting prices. The main port for May saw transactions at a premium of 80 to 140 for contract 09, with some higher transactions at a premium of 150, and prices negotiated in the range of 4555 to 4620 [1] Cost Analysis - As of April 28, the PTA spot processing fee was around 462 yuan per ton, while the processing fees for TA2505 and TA2509 contracts were 429 yuan per ton and 357 yuan per ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Baicheng had a production capacity of 2.5 million tons, Yisheng Dahuaz had 3.75 million tons, and Taiwan Chemical restarted 1.2 million tons, while Jiatuo had 3 million tons under maintenance. PTA operating rates adjusted to 78.9%, an increase of 3.5% [3] - Demand: Last week, the overall polyester operating rate slightly decreased to 93.6%, a drop of 0.2%. The bottle chip production increased, while short fiber facilities restarted, and long filament facilities underwent maintenance and localized reductions. On April 28, the price of polyester yarn rose, but overall sales remained average. The slight increase in raw material prices and the low prices of polyester yarn stimulated some downstream speculation, leading to increased volume on the last two trading days. However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and polyester yarn profits have significantly declined, especially for FDY, which is now at a loss. Crude oil prices remain relatively firm, with WTI fluctuating between 60 and 65 dollars, indicating a short-term oscillating trend for yarn prices. Polyester factories are currently focused on maintaining prices, and any price increases will require demand support [3] Market Outlook - In May, there are many planned maintenance activities for PTA facilities, and the short-term pressure on downstream polyester inventory has eased. It is expected that polyester will maintain high operating rates in the short term, and the PTA supply-demand balance will continue to be tight. Additionally, some suppliers are reducing May contract supplies, and with the upcoming Labor Day holiday, the demand for stocking by polyester factories is expected to increase, leading to a faster decline in PTA inventory and a strong short-term PTA basis. The supply-demand dynamics for PTA are expected to strengthen, and both PX and PTA valuations are relatively low, providing strong support for PTA prices. Recently, PTA has shown relative strength compared to oil prices, with the price spread between PTA and crude oil widening. However, negative feedback from the demand side and limited oil price drivers may suppress the rebound potential of PTA. The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach before the holiday or short-term rolling low-long operations; TA9-1 is viewed as a short-term positive spread, while a mid-term negative spread is anticipated; PTA is positioned positively within the industry chain [4]