【供需方面】 供应：截止12月19日，英力士125万吨PTA装置降负运行，后期可能停车，PTA负荷至73.2%(-0.5%)。 【现货方面】 12月24日，PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走弱。12月货在01贴水19附近商谈 成交，价格商谈区间在4975~5060。1月货在05贴水73~77成交。主流现货基差在01-19。 【利润方面】 12月24日，PTA现货加工费至221元/吨附近，TA2601盘面加工费315元/吨，TA2603盘面加工费292元/ 吨，TA2605盘面加工费327元/吨。 【行情展望】 随着原料PX大涨，PTA及聚酯产品价格有所跟涨。当前PTA供需压力不大，11-12月PTA装置检修较集 中，且聚酯开工在内外需支撑负荷持续高位，叠加印度BIS认证取消后，PTA出口预期增加，11-12月 PTA供需格局偏紧，PTA加工费有所修复。绝对价格来看，1季度PTA在低加工费下仍有装置存检修预 期，而下游聚酯春节前后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度仍存累库预期，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降 负，PTA继续上涨驱动有限。策略上，PTA跟随PX大涨后谨慎看待当前价格，不排除聚酯端实质性 ...

库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，本周PTA工厂库存在3.76天，较上周-0.1天，较去年同期-0.06 天；聚酯工厂PTA原料库存在7.6天，较上周+0.4天，较去年同期-0.3天。 后市来看，新湖期货表示，短期PTA供应收缩幅度并不大，加之需求季节性回落，逐步进入季节性累库 周期。不过当时市场交易PTA长期供需格局好转叠加PX偏强运行，PTA跟随成本偏强为主。 12月23日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，PTA期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约报 5050.00元/吨，涨幅1.73%。 供应方面，国信期货指出，PTA存量检修较多，短期供应偏紧去库，本周YS宁波计划重启，市场供应 预期回升。 需求端，中辉期货分析称，下游需求尚可但预期走弱，其中聚酯开工维持高位，但织造开工负荷持续下 行，订单延续走弱态势。 ...

【现货方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 供应：截止11月21日，PTA负荷下调至71%（-4.7%）。 需求：截至11月21日，聚酯负荷有所提升至91.3%附近（+1%）。11月24日，涤丝价格重心局部上调， 产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外销放量，价格上涨。目 前工厂库存较低但下游销量有所下滑，涤丝价格以稳定为主。后期继续关注下游销量和印度BIS认证情 况。 【行情展望】 随着华东2套PTA装置检修落地，且聚酯开工在内需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口有望增加，PTA供需预期明显修复，PTA基差阶段性修复。平衡表来看，11-12月PTA供需预期 偏紧；不过12月至1季度PTA供需预期整体偏宽松。绝对价格来看，近 ...

Supply and Demand - PTA supply is tightening as Jia Tong's 3 million tons capacity resumes and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million tons unit increases load, leading to a PTA load increase to 76.9% (+4.4%) [3] - Demand is also rising with the opening of a long filament unit and a bottle chip unit, pushing polyester comprehensive load to 95.3% (+1.1%) [3] - The operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are improving, with texturing, weaving, and dyeing loads at 80% (+3%), 68% (+3%), and 77% (+4%) respectively [3] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to remain tight in the short term due to concentrated maintenance of PTA units and high polyester operating rates [4] - However, with PTA units set to restart in late May and unclear future maintenance plans, there are concerns about potential weakening in supply-demand dynamics as downstream polyester products face losses [4] - Strategies suggest that TA09 may face short-term pullback pressure, but supply-demand remains strong, indicating high-level fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].

Market Overview - On April 28, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis strengthened before retreating, with trading mainly conducted by traders and some mainstream suppliers quoting prices. The main port for May saw transactions at a premium of 80 to 140 for contract 09, with some higher transactions at a premium of 150, and prices negotiated in the range of 4555 to 4620 [1] Cost Analysis - As of April 28, the PTA spot processing fee was around 462 yuan per ton, while the processing fees for TA2505 and TA2509 contracts were 429 yuan per ton and 357 yuan per ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Baicheng had a production capacity of 2.5 million tons, Yisheng Dahuaz had 3.75 million tons, and Taiwan Chemical restarted 1.2 million tons, while Jiatuo had 3 million tons under maintenance. PTA operating rates adjusted to 78.9%, an increase of 3.5% [3] - Demand: Last week, the overall polyester operating rate slightly decreased to 93.6%, a drop of 0.2%. The bottle chip production increased, while short fiber facilities restarted, and long filament facilities underwent maintenance and localized reductions. On April 28, the price of polyester yarn rose, but overall sales remained average. The slight increase in raw material prices and the low prices of polyester yarn stimulated some downstream speculation, leading to increased volume on the last two trading days. However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and polyester yarn profits have significantly declined, especially for FDY, which is now at a loss. Crude oil prices remain relatively firm, with WTI fluctuating between 60 and 65 dollars, indicating a short-term oscillating trend for yarn prices. Polyester factories are currently focused on maintaining prices, and any price increases will require demand support [3] Market Outlook - In May, there are many planned maintenance activities for PTA facilities, and the short-term pressure on downstream polyester inventory has eased. It is expected that polyester will maintain high operating rates in the short term, and the PTA supply-demand balance will continue to be tight. Additionally, some suppliers are reducing May contract supplies, and with the upcoming Labor Day holiday, the demand for stocking by polyester factories is expected to increase, leading to a faster decline in PTA inventory and a strong short-term PTA basis. The supply-demand dynamics for PTA are expected to strengthen, and both PX and PTA valuations are relatively low, providing strong support for PTA prices. Recently, PTA has shown relative strength compared to oil prices, with the price spread between PTA and crude oil widening. However, negative feedback from the demand side and limited oil price drivers may suppress the rebound potential of PTA. The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach before the holiday or short-term rolling low-long operations; TA9-1 is viewed as a short-term positive spread, while a mid-term negative spread is anticipated; PTA is positioned positively within the industry chain [4]