2026 年 1 月 2 日，特斯拉四季度交付数据出炉，结果如市场预期的那样 "惨淡"。受美国 IRA 法案 7500 美元补贴退坡、中国购置税退坡及 "以旧换新" 红 利耗尽的双重挤压，其 Q4 交付量仅 41.8 万辆，环比下滑 16%；2025 年全年交付 164 万辆，同比下滑 8.6%，迎来连续第二个财年销量萎缩。 与疲软基本面形成鲜明反差的是特斯拉股价的狂飙突进。自 Robotaxi Day 活动及 FSD V13 版本向公众推送后，公司股价便开启与销量 "大脱钩" 模式，Q4 交付数据发布前夕更逼近 500 美元关口，创下历史新高。 海豚君认为，特斯拉 "销量下滑但估值攀升" 的核心的是定价锚点从 "汽车制造" 切换至 "AI 叙事"。三季报后补贴退坡致硬件业务承压，但股价逆势上 涨，本质是市场再交易 Robotaxi 的落地与变现预期。 过去半年，特斯拉 Robotaxi 业务完成了从 "概念验证" 到 "商业落地" 的关键跨越： 2025 年 6 月，该服务在德州奥斯汀正式上线并快速拓展至加州； 同年 12 月，马斯克证实奥斯汀测试车队已正式移除安全员，这一里程碑事件标志着 Robotaxi ...

FSD (Full Self-Driving) Technology - Karpathy, former Tesla AI director, experienced near-perfect FSD V13 performance on HW4 Model X, highlighting significant improvements in handling complex scenarios [1][2][3] - Tesla is using "Software 2.0," an end-to-end AI model, which relies heavily on HW4 hardware and high-resolution cameras, potentially offering a superior FSD experience compared to HW3 [3] - Tesla has started FSD testing in South Korea [1] Market & Sales Performance - Tesla Model Y and Model 3 remain the world's best-selling EVs, but face increasing competition from BYD's diverse model lineup [4] - Model Y achieved sales of 140,904 units in September, while Model 3 sold 67,374 units [4] - BYD's top 9 models collectively outsold Tesla's Model Y and 3 in September, with approximately 286,000 units compared to Tesla's 208,278 units [4] Industry & Competitive Landscape - Ford CEO acknowledged being "shocked" by Tesla's engineering efficiency, particularly noting that Ford's electric Mustang Mach-E has 1.6 kilometers more wiring than Tesla's Model 3 [4] - JD Power data indicates that 24.2% of US active car shoppers are "very likely" to consider an EV, the highest point of the year [4] - Approximately 60% of potential buyers are "somewhat likely" to switch to EVs in the next 12 months [4] Tesla's Strategy - Tesla is opening its Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs, integrating it with Google Maps, and aiming to set industry standards [4] - Tesla's Supercharger director is working to integrate real-time wait time predictions and dynamic route planning into Google Maps, features already available on Tesla's own navigation system since 2017 [4]