｜2026年2月27日 星期五｜ 中信证券研报认为，展望未来3—5年，保险公司总体上将继续受益于严监管、反内卷的竞争环境，老七 家市场份额有望继续集中；在低利率环境下，储蓄存款向保险公司迁移，是银行、保险公司、客户共赢 的结果，这一趋势有望长期持续，并形成耐心资本、大力支持股市债市和实体经济发展。展望2026年一 季报和中报，在2025年低基数基础上，保单销售、投资收益、利润增长均具有较高确定性，近期AI叙 事调整带来右侧投资窗口，建议重点关注新业务价值增速快、盈利和派息稳定、估值较低的头部公司。 免责声明：本内容与数据仅供参考，不构成交易建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 NO.1中金公司：2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产主线 每日经济新闻 中金公司研报称，2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产的主线。2025年是国际货币秩序重构加速之 年，2026年该趋势仍将延续，这些趋势支持中国股票和黄金延续牛市，并有利于中国股票跑赢美股。 NO.2中信建投：国产白蛋白批签发占比提升，新产品研发持续推进 中信建投研报称，2025年，国内血制品行业中白蛋白、静丙、纤原批签发保持稳健，其中国产白蛋白签 发批次占 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the recent strong non-farm payrolls and weak CPI data have caused significant disturbances in asset prices, leading to fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The combination of these data suggests that the weaker CPI has somewhat alleviated the hawkish pressure from the strong non-farm data. The firm believes that the Fed may struggle to provide clear signals for easing in the short term, and asset prices will continue to oscillate around the dynamics of growth resilience and inflation stickiness. A significant change in policy space is likely to occur after the leadership transition in May, with potential adjustments under Warsh's leadership possibly opening up more room for rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][23]. CPI Summary - In January, the CPI was reported at 2.4% year-on-year, lower than expectations and previous values, marking a three-month decline. The core CPI remained at 2.5%, in line with expectations but below the previous value. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the 12-month average, while the core CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the 12-month average of 0.2% [2][3]. - Key components of the CPI showed a decline in food prices from 3.1% to 2.9% year-on-year, and energy prices fell from 2.3% to -0.1%. Core goods and services also exhibited slight decreases in inflation rates, indicating persistent service inflation pressures [2][3]. Non-Farm Payroll Summary - The January non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below expectations and the previous rate of 4.4%, reaching a new low since September 2025. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, higher than anticipated [6][11]. - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, which contributed nearly 80% of the new jobs. Other sectors like professional services and construction showed modest improvements, while information and finance sectors continued to decline [11][16]. Asset Price Movements - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock indices and bond yields initially rose before declining, with gold prices experiencing similar fluctuations. After the CPI release, stock indices showed mixed results, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, and gold prices increased [18][20]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts fluctuated, with a decrease in anticipated cuts following the non-farm data, but a slight increase after the CPI release. The implied number of rate cuts for 2026 decreased from 2.4 to 2.12 after the non-farm data, while it rose from 2.36 to 2.53 after the CPI data [20][23]. Future Outlook - The combination of strong non-farm data and sticky service inflation suggests that while employment remains resilient, inflation pressures persist. The Fed is unlikely to signal clear easing in the short term, and asset prices will continue to be influenced by these dynamics. A potential shift in policy may occur after the leadership change in May, with the possibility of more significant rate cuts in the latter half of the year [23][24].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In January, the US manufacturing and services PMI exceeded expectations, indicating overall robust growth overseas [1] - In contrast, China's manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory, with both supply and demand components weakening compared to seasonal levels [1][10] - The price index has risen further, reflecting a rapid increase in upstream raw material prices, which is expected to suppress manufacturing supply and demand in the short term [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - Market risk appetite has declined, leading to weaker performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while bonds saw a slight increase [1][11] - The bond market experienced volatility, with the long end performing stronger due to a rebound logic and hedging demand, despite overall bond market gains falling short of expectations [1][10] - In the equity market, there is a potential for stabilization in risk appetite as volatility is digested, with a focus on high-yield assets and long-duration assets for value allocation [1][11] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The A-share market sentiment has weakened due to fluctuations in overseas markets, but there is potential for recovery in cyclical sectors and consumption as selling pressure from state-owned entities eases [11] - Small-cap and growth sectors may present good opportunities, with improved cost-effectiveness in growth stocks and a favorable calendar effect for small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival [11][12] - The Hong Kong market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity, but its fundamentals remain weak, with the improvement of price levels by 2026 being crucial [12] Group 4: Commodity Insights - Recent geopolitical tensions have driven up gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand, although a subsequent drop occurred due to overheating in trading and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve [3][12] - Oil prices have been influenced by threats against Iran and cold weather, but significant improvements in the oil supply-demand fundamentals are still under observation [12]

用中国定价和海外定价的同类资产，在过去一段时间内的相关性来衡量全球大类资产的协同性，2023年 以来再度冲高 全球大类资产的共振性的逻辑背后是康波萧条期尾声，乌克兰危机、全球贸易摩擦等宏大语境下，人工 智能浪潮带来AI叙事和美元公信力不足驱动追逐避险资产的"科技股+贵金属"双重组合，特别是商品和 股票的相关性同时新高，债券背后的中美货币周期也在由背离走向同步演绎，全球资产一致性的背景下 通过跨资产分散风险和降低波动率也变得尤为困难。 2020年一季度的全资产同向波动则是极端风险厌恶下美元流动性危机的直接体现 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2023年全球大类资产相关性再度冲高，逻辑源于康波萧条期 尾声、地缘风险及AI叙事下"科技股+贵金属"组合走强，叠加中美货币周期趋于同步，分散风险难度增 加。过去20年类似高相关仅出现两次：2013年缩减恐慌引发流动性拐点预期，2020年新冠疫情导致美元 流动性危机。 国信证券主要观点如下： 过去20年间全球大类资产曾经有两次到过当前的高相关区间 第一次是2013年中，第二次是2020年一季度全球新冠疫情暴发带来的美元现金为王。2013年中的资产高 相关源于美联储政 ...

有色金属ETF基金紧密跟踪中证细分有色金属产业主题指数，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、 洛阳钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、赤峰黄金，前十大权重股合计占比51.85%。 2月3日，金属概念午后爆发， 截至14:19，有色金属ETF基金(516650)盘中走强涨5.71%，持仓股湖南黄金涨停，中稀有色上涨8.77%，盛和资源上涨7.23%， 国城矿业，中国稀土等个股跟涨。有色金属ETF基金盘中换手23.26%，成交50.03亿元，市场交投活跃。 相关分析指出，随着市场从极端情绪中逐步平复，金属板块或将进入逻辑重塑阶段。贵金属方面，央行购金和黄金ETF持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄 金价格的重要因素。基本金属方面，近期市场将持续消化宏观修正压力，但AI叙事依旧，供给扰动频出，在全球铜矿缺口有望扩大的背景下，价格下方有 支撑。铝（轻量化）、锡（"算力金属"）、碳酸锂（储能与动力电池）等品种，将持续受益于绿色产业与科技浪潮的持续渗透。 （以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 有色金属ETF基金(5 ...

2月3日，有色板块持续回暖，湖南黄金冲击涨停，盛和资源、云南锗业、北方稀土、中国稀土等涨超 4%，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）涨超2%。 上周，贵金属出现历史性行情，受交易拥挤、新任美联储主席和美股科技股下跌压制，贵金属整体出现 暴跌，尤其是前期涨幅过高的白银，单日最大跌幅超过30%，黄金最大跌幅超过10%。今日盘中，金银 现货价格反弹，截至发稿，伦敦银现涨超5%，伦敦金现涨超3%。 中邮证券指出，短期来看，由于获利盘出清导致价格可能会出现剧烈震荡，不排除进一步下跌可能性， 但伦敦金可以在4800-4900盎司之间寻找低位筹码。长期来看，去美元化的进程不会转向，此次调整不 是贵金属行情的结束，耐心等待价格转向的时点。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）所跟踪的有色矿业指数是一只高度聚焦于有色金属产业链最上游——矿产 资源开采环节的指数，当有色金属价格（如铜价、金价、锂价）上涨时，上游矿产公司的利润会直接、 快速地提升，因此有色矿业指数表现出更强的价格弹性，贝塔值更高，在商品牛市或通胀环境中进攻性 十足。 数据来源:Wind_截至2026.1.30。 了 指数介绍 主流有色主题指数历史行情 388%- 3 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Hunan Gold and Northern Rare Earth seeing significant gains, while the non-ferrous mining ETF is also up over 2% [1] - Precious metals faced a historic downturn due to trading congestion and external pressures, with silver and gold experiencing maximum daily declines of over 30% and 10% respectively [1][14] - Short-term volatility is expected in precious metal prices due to profit-taking, but long-term trends indicate that the de-dollarization process will continue, suggesting that the current adjustment is not the end of the precious metal rally [1][18] Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a strong performance over the past year, with a return of 146.48% and a maximum drawdown of -13.76% [3] - The index focuses on the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, with copper, gold, and aluminum making up over 58% of its composition [5] - Historical performance indicates that the non-ferrous mining index has a cumulative increase of 353.53% over the past decade, with an annualized return of 16.83% [10][12] Group 3 - The market outlook for 2026 suggests that central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings will continue to support gold prices, while copper prices are expected to find support amid supply disruptions [19] - The aluminum market is facing downward pressure due to seasonal factors and a decline in processing activity, with a reported drop of 1.5 percentage points in aluminum processing [19]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term logic of US dollar credit remains unchanged, but the underlying capital flows, asset preference shifts, and leveraged trading have never ceased. The frequent occurrence of global black swan events has led to a reduction in risk appetite, while rising inflationary pressures in the US have tightened interest rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resonance of these factors at some point [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is not fundamentally caused by the nomination of Kevin Warsh but is more of a coincidental catalyst that triggered emotional volatility. The core driving force behind the decline is large-scale profit-taking following significant price increases, leading to a chain reaction of deleveraging [5]. - Historically, significant price increases in gold (20%-30%) typically require about six months to digest, but the current cycle has been compressed to a monthly level. The rapid price increases have led to a situation where the market must undergo a severe correction to alleviate overbought pressures [5][6]. - The volatility in gold and silver prices exhibits clear "MEME" characteristics, with pricing no longer solely dependent on "de-dollarization" but driven by liquidity and AI narratives. The demand for hedging has caused gold prices to move in tandem with US stocks, while silver has seen even greater volatility due to its dual role as a financial asset and an industrial demand driven by AI [6]. Group 2: AI and Economic Interactions - The current market's upward momentum is primarily driven by the strength of the AI trend, with both US stocks and precious metals benefiting from this narrative. In contrast, cryptocurrencies have shown weakness due to their disconnection from the AI narrative and competition for resources with the AI industry [8]. - The extreme demand for electricity and computing power from the AI industry has directly impacted cryptocurrency mining costs, leading traditional mining companies to pivot towards investments in computing power centers, thereby increasing the operational costs of cryptocurrencies [8]. - Regardless of who becomes the Federal Reserve Chair, gold and silver may experience significant declines due to previous rapid price increases and the requirement for exchanges to raise reserve requirements, leading to profit-taking and deleveraging [8][9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Political Influences - Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair does not alter the dovish policy expectations. The market's insensitivity to his nomination is reflected in the stable interest rate cut expectations and the performance of long-term US Treasury bonds [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts will depend more on economic performance and political will rather than the change in leadership. Warsh's focus on inflation risks and previous opposition to quantitative easing may not align with current economic realities [9][12]. - The current liquidity levels in the dollar market are slightly above adequate levels, and excessive balance sheet reduction could lead to a repeat of the 2019 repo crisis, which the Federal Reserve aims to avoid [12]. Group 4: Fiscal Risks and Economic Outlook - Fiscal risks are emerging as significant instability factors, with political conflicts over immigration regulations complicating budget coordination, potentially leading to government shutdowns. This political maneuvering could create liquidity risks that are more damaging than monetary policy changes [16]. - Rising electricity prices driven by AI demand and significant price increases in key components like storage chips are beginning to affect consumer electronics and durable goods, posing new challenges to purchasing power and potentially reigniting inflation risks [16][17]. - The sustainability of the AI narrative relies on continuous monetary and fiscal support to counteract rising costs and the absence of a significant economic downturn. The profitability of AI-related sectors remains high, but many companies are resorting to layoffs as a cost-control measure, exacerbating economic disparities [17][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have rebounded, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices showing a slight increase [1][2] - Gold ETFs, including Shanghai Gold ETF, have risen over 3%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 10% [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a sustained upward momentum for gold prices, forecasting that gold could reach $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and investors [4] Group 2 - Citigroup has significantly lowered its long-term gold price expectations, warning that in a bear market scenario, gold prices could drop to $3000 per ounce [4][5] - Factors supporting current high gold prices, such as geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, are expected to diminish later this year, leading to a potential decline in gold prices starting in 2026 [5] - The new Federal Reserve chair's policies and the decline in tech stocks are putting pressure on precious metal prices, while central bank gold purchases and ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices in the long term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major indices rising over 2%, driven by a "technology + dividend" strategy through the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) saw an intraday increase of 2.54%, currently up 2.33%, indicating a strong market momentum [1] - Leading stocks include Pop Mart with over 6% gain, China Petroleum over 5%, and several others like China National Offshore Oil, Li Auto, and SMIC rising over 4% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analyst Zhang Yidong suggests that the current phase of the Hong Kong stock market may lead to a long-term bull market, with technology remaining a key focus [2] - Fund manager Cao Xucheng notes that while the Hong Kong market may disappoint in Q4 2025, it could perform well in 2026 due to potential capital inflow from A-shares [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the Hong Kong market will benefit from domestic "14th Five-Year Plan" initiatives and external economic policies promoting fiscal and monetary easing [2] - The presence of a complete AI industry chain in Hong Kong, along with the influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, is expected to enhance market liquidity and drive valuation recovery [2] Group 4: ETF Strategy - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF employs a "technology + dividend" strategy, featuring a mix of high-growth tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent, alongside stable dividend-paying stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An [3] - This ETF supports "T+0" intraday trading, making it a flexible tool for long-term investment in the Hong Kong market [3] Group 5: Index Composition - The index composition of the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF is slightly more technology-focused compared to the Hang Seng Index, which may explain its superior performance over the past five years [4]