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30.8亿美元!新一轮QDII投资额度获批,睿远、财通资管新入局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-30 14:16
截至6月30日,共有191家金融机构获得QDII额度,其中银行机构合计41家,额度总计282.4亿美元;基 金/证券类机构合计78家,额度总计942.9亿美元;保险机构合计48家,额度总计393.23亿美元;信托类 机构合计24家,额度总计90.16亿美元。 本轮新批复30.8亿美元额度的机构涵盖银行、保险、信托、证券、基金等五类82家,其中,基金公司共 有44家,券商及券商资管有16家。 图片来源:界面图库 智通财经记者 | 杜萌 时隔一年多,新一批合格境内机构投资者(以下简称"QDII")投资额度获批。 6月30日,国家外汇管理局(以下简称"外汇局")披露最新一期QDII投资额度审批情况表显示,截至 2025年6月末,银行类、证券类、保险类、信托类等机构累计批准额度为1708.69亿美元,较去年5月9日 的1677.89亿美元增加30.8亿美元。 实际上,此次QDII额度扩容此前已有"预告"。6月18日,中国人民银行副行长、外汇局局长朱鹤新在 2025陆家嘴论坛上发表主题演讲时就提到,近期将新发放一批QDII投资额度,有序满足境内主体境外 投资合理需求。 中银理财、工银理财、交银理财、建信理财、光大理财、 ...
投顾周刊:多只纯债基金净值创历史新高
Wind万得· 2025-06-28 22:19
1. 债基悄然"收复失地",多只纯债基金净值创历史新高。 伴随近期央行"呵护为主"的信号,债市利率普遍下 行,债券基金强势回归。近日,近九成短期纯债基金、超四成中长期纯债基金净值悄然创下历史新高,十余 只中长债产品年内回报率已超3%。部分债券基金采取了"拉长久期"的投资策略,反映出市场对央行重启买债 的乐观及货币政策维持适度宽松的后市预期。不过,受访基金经理认为,债市能否全面转牛,仍需等待政策 落地及更强的信号催化。 最近 一周(2025年6月23日至6月27日),全球主要股市均录得上涨。中国市场方面,中证500表现最为强 势,累计涨幅达3.98%,深证成指、恒生指数累计涨幅均超3%,分别为3.73%、3.2%,上证指数累计涨幅 为1.91%;美国市场方面,道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数涨幅分别为3.82%、4.25%、 3.44%;亚洲市场方面,日经225走势强劲,累计涨幅达4.55%;欧洲市场方面,德国DAX指数累计上涨 2.92%。 2. A+H热潮持续:港股折价收窄,对冲基金热衷套利策略。 今年以来,港股热潮引人注目,除了新上市的公 司,A+H两地上市更屡见不鲜。国内外投行机构也预计,这 ...
从全球流动性的新变化看市场
HTSC· 2025-06-25 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].
中美AI叙事和背后的算力逻辑
雪球· 2025-04-04 03:16
长按即可参与 作者: 门捷列夫学徒 来源:雪球 自DS出现以后,我看网上没有很好的一篇文章去总结目前中美ai叙事的差异以及背后的算力需 求。简单来说: China Ai叙事:DS开源带来的LLM平权以及由此延伸的各种ds蒸馏小模型端侧(包括一体机)、 边缘侧的ai应用落地,大有全面开花之势。 China算力:H20和国产Asic就行,甚至端侧还有更简单的方案。当然杰文森悖论还是适用的,大 厂加大数据中心投入。 北美Ai叙事:继续大力出奇迹通往AGI,各种多模态高阶模型推出,万亿参数大模型继续走起。 北美算力:高端NV卡仍然供不应求,GPUs are melting。。。 芯片来跑。 所以各位小伙伴期待的国内版文生图可能就要等等了,哪怕推出了估计也会卡得要死。主要是还 是卡不行。 其实你看tx的微信就是聊天,所以llm对于他们暂时就够用。而zj因为是视频起家,肯定对于高端 卡的需求是更大的。前面没说的是Ai视频生成更需要500+tflops和48G显存,更需要NV的高端 卡。 这也是为什么我们直到现在都没看到国内的 csp 推出多模态的Ai应用 。 现在的gap在于:显然北美这条路出成果没这么快,而国内ai叙事 ...
中金 | 美债季报:第二个流动性拐点
中金点睛· 2025-03-31 23:46
点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 今年一月中旬以来债务上限限制美债供给,美元流动性迎来第一个拐点, 准备金规模抬升,10年期利率从4.8%回落至4.2%附近,基本验证了我们在《 美 国债务上限的解决路径与资产含义 》的判断。叠加特朗普政策的不确定性对经济带来的冲击,加速了利率下行。短期内,关税问题带来的避险情绪在短 期内仍可能刺激利率继续下行,但往前看,美国经济整体韧性仍在,高频数据显示购房需求整体平稳,新增职位触底反弹,失业情况也并未出现明显抬 升。我们预计,在4.2"对等关税"落地后,政策的不确定性有望减弱,叠加我们估计减税政策可能于年中前推出,以及去监管政策的推进,对于经济的悲 观情绪或在二季度触底。 我们估计,在5-6月债务上限有望解决,这之后三季度美债净融资量或达到1.4万亿美元,进而迎来第二个流动性拐点,结束一月以来流动性改善的趋势, 转为收紧。 实际上,流动性收紧的风险已促使美联储提前大幅减缓缩表。 美债需求整体仍偏弱,供需失衡和通胀的韧性将支撑利率走高,我们预计10年期美债利率可能在债务上限问题解决后升至4.8%。为了压低利率曲线,特 朗普政府可能首先通过金融去监管的方式进行干预,例如 ...
全球资本流向大变局:从“拜登大循环”到“特朗普大重置”
华尔街见闻· 2025-03-24 11:37
最近的全球市场,用"风起云涌"来形容都显得保守了。各种"几十年一遇"的巨变接连上演,从特朗普在乌克兰问题上的立场转变,到马斯克大闹华盛顿,以 及德国"不惜一切"的决心。 如何理解这一切?今天我们来深度剖析这场大变局背后的核心逻辑,并且试着给出预测:接下去还会发生什么? 从"拜登大循环"到"特朗普大重置" 我们先从中金最近一篇精彩的研报说起。 在这篇题为《特朗普"大重置":债务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值》的报告里,中金宏观研究团队首先解释了过去几年全球资本流动最重要的逻辑—"拜登大循 环": 在2020年疫情后,拜登政府启动了天量财政刺激、配合AI和产业政策推动的科技狂潮,美国实现了高增长、高利率、和股市繁荣,吸引海 外资金持续流入美国,支撑美元趋势升值。从途径和效果上来看,拜登政府实际上复现了"里根大循环",并将美股和美元的估值拉升到了 历史高位。 但"拜登大循环"有两个致命的缺陷: 一个是金融市场的巨大风险:高债务。这在"里根大循环"里就曾演绎过一遍,天量财政刺激推动经济高增长和美元升值,往往带来贸易赤字的恶化,叠加财 政赤字短期难以收敛,双赤字问题终将引发投资者关注甚至担忧。当美国双赤字超过某一阈值一定时间 ...
中金 | 特朗普“大重置”:债务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值
中金点睛· 2025-03-20 23:24
中金研究 无论脱虚向实,还是化解债务,在没有生产率大幅改善的情况下,我们判断其政策路径的交集大概率指向全球资金再平衡、通胀压力、美元贬值、金 融抑制。 点击小程序查看报告原文 "特朗普有意制造衰退"[1]、"特朗普不顾股市"[2]、"美国经济可能经历排毒期(detox period)"[3]......迥异于特朗普1.0的新闻头条近期不断冲击着本就脆 弱的美股市场。叠加特朗普2.0难以自洽的多重政策目标,令投资者莫衷一是。 我们提出一个尝试理解特朗普最终目标和政策路径的框架---"大重置"。我们认为特朗普面临二战以来亟需解决的两大根本问题:悬殊的贫富差距;史高的 政府债务压力。在该框架中,我们预计特朗普试图通过重置资本结构,即调整产业资本和金融资本的关系,期望实现脱虚向实、再工业化,并最终缩小贫 富分化。同时,在没有生产力重大提升的情况下,我们认为特朗普可能试图通过通胀贬值、必要时候金融抑制来重置债务负担,最终化解债务风险。 特朗普高位接盘"拜登大循环" 无论脱虚向实,还是化解债务,在没有生产率大幅改善的情况下,我们判断其政策路径的交集大概率指向全球资金再平衡、通胀压力、美元贬值、金融抑 制。脱虚向实,意味着 ...
集体飙涨!18万人爆仓
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-03 02:22
| BTC | 92887 | +7.76% | | --- | --- | --- | | $536.7亿 +6.5% | | | | ETH | 2466 | +11.3% | | $205.8亿 +7.9% | | | | SOL 三 | 173.2 | +20.1% | | $48亿 +14.2% | | | | XRP | 2.819 | +28.1% | | $41.6亿 +40.1% | | | | DOGE | 0.2315 | +12.4% | | $20亿 +12.1% | | | | ADA | 1.074 | +63.6% | | $11亿 +104.3% | | | | BNB | 619.8 | +1.74% | | $7.1亿 +1.9% | | | | LTC | 197 | | 3月3日,比特币等加密货币突然暴涨。截至9点4 3分,比特币涨超7 . 7%,以太坊涨逾11%,艾达币(ADA)更是涨超6 3%。 | $6.1亿 +5.1% | 161.4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SUI | 3.132 | +10.9% | | $5.9亿 +6.8% ...