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永安期货燃料油早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:51
Group 1: Report's Core View - Singapore 380cst high - sulfur cracking oscillated this week, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently had wide - range oscillations. The FU internal and external near - month also oscillated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level compared to the same period. The month spread was weakly sorted. The LU internal and external price rebounded slightly to 8 - 9 US dollars/ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. With logistics reshaping and the support of Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has completed the repair. Recently, refinery feedstock procurement has supported the 380 cracking level, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the domestic FU will have an oscillating and bullish outlook in the short - term. This week, the LU disk was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas was in line with expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal and external spread can be expanded on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [5]. Group 2: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/09/17 | 2025/09/18 | 2025/09/19 | 2025/09/22 | 2025/09/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 384.75 | 383.35 | 382.97 | 386.97 | 397.95 | 10.98 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 441.33 | 434.21 | 427.48 | 427.29 | 435.42 | 8.13 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.96 | - 6.64 | - 5.82 | - 4.97 | - 4.64 | 0.33 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 679.88 | 677.55 | 668.48 | 664.85 | 681.15 | 16.30 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 238.55 | - 243.34 | - 241.00 | - 237.56 | - 245.73 | - 8.17 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 24.97 | 25.18 | 24.80 | 24.40 | 25.56 | 1.16 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 56.58 | 50.86 | 44.51 | 40.32 | 37.47 | - 2.85 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/09/17 | 2025/09/18 | 2025/09/19 | 2025/09/22 | 2025/09/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 397.55 | 396.06 | 390.12 | 393.02 | 394.24 | 1.22 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 407.42 | 407.26 | 400.69 | 403.27 | 402.50 | - 0.77 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 475.76 | 472.28 | 465.21 | 465.33 | 463.11 | - 2.22 | | Singapore GO M1 | 89.51 | 88.34 | 87.81 | 87.43 | 86.66 | - 0.77 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.03 | - 4.97 | - 5.13 | - 4.47 | - 3.74 | 0.73 | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | - 186.61 | - 181.44 | - 184.58 | - 181.65 | - 178.17 | 3.48 | | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - FOB 380cst | 397.68 | 397.47 | 390.94 | 393.48 | 395.20 | 1.72 | | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - FOB VLSFO | 477.54 | 472.07 | 464.79 | 463.33 | 461.15 | - 2.18 | | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - 380 basis | - 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.40 | | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - High - sulfur internal - external spread | 7.6 | 7.5 | - | 6.0 | 9.7 | 3.7 | | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - Low - sulfur internal - external spread | 9.3 | 9.7 | - | 9.7 | 9.9 | 0.2 | [3][9] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/09/17 | 2025/09/18 | 2025/09/19 | 2025/09/22 | 2025/09/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2831 | 2798 | 2796 | 2784 | 2759 | - 25 | | FU 05 | 2787 | 2754 | 2754 | 2743 | 2718 | - 25 | | FU 09 | 2722 | 2698 | 2699 | 2697 | 2673 | - 24 | | FU 01 - 05 | 44 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 0 | | FU 05 - 09 | 65 | 56 | 55 | 46 | 45 | - 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 109 | - 100 | - 97 | - 87 | - 86 | 1 | [3] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/09/17 | 2025/09/18 | 2025/09/19 | 2025/09/22 | 2025/09/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3432 | 3385 | 3362 | 3351 | 3325 | - 26 | | LU 05 | 3405 | 3368 | 3337 | 3342 | 3302 | - 40 | | LU 09 | 3350 | 3322 | 3308 | 3306 | 3286 | - 20 | | LU 01 - 05 | 27 | 17 | 25 | 9 | 23 | 14 | | LU 05 - 09 | 55 | 46 | 29 | 36 | 16 | - 20 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 82 | - 63 | - 54 | - 45 | - 39 | 6 | [4]