当前时点如何看商业航天？20251124 商业航天产业的中长期发展框架是什么？ 从中长期来看，商业航天产业的发展可以分为两个主要阶段：基建投入期和应 用爆发期。在基建投入期，投资者应关注资本开支的爆发性和持续性，希望在 资本开支增速最高时进行投资并在适当时机退出。卫星互联网行业也遵循这一 逻辑，其收入增长主要来源于下游资本扩张。 应用爆发期则是新兴技术落地带 来的收入增长。我们预计 2027 年或 2028 年将是业绩兑现的高峰期和拐点。 从需求角度看，2030 年 6G 发牌照将推动通信基础设施的新一轮迭代，加上基 站使用寿命通常为 10 年左右，到 2030 年前后需要更新换代，这将推动卫星 网络在偏远地区取代地面网络。预计 27、28 年前后会迎来一个产业拐点。 从 成本供给角度看，商业航天与传统航天最大的不同在于其盈利模式，因此成本 控制尤为重要。目前国内外发射成本差距较大，如 SpaceX 的 Falcon 9 火箭 具备可回收能力，大幅降低了成本。国内预计将在今年（2025 年）年底前进 通信领域看好灿勤科技的陶瓷滤波器（已产生收入），以及海格通信在 应用端市场的广泛布局和芯片领域的独特优势，海格 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending a focus on high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors [4]. Core Insights - The aerospace industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with SpaceX targeting 170 orbital launches in 2025, a 27% increase from 2024 [1][18]. - The U.S. is establishing a significant AI data center in the UAE, marking a shift towards global standard output in the AI data center industry [13]. - The industrial robotics sector is expected to maintain a steady installation level of 541,302 units in 2023, with a projected increase in demand driven by re-industrialization and AI data center developments [32][36]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The U.S. stock market shows a steady upward trend, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching significant highs [7][12]. Infrastructure - **Data Centers**: The U.S. and UAE are collaborating on a 5GW AI super data center, involving major tech companies like OpenAI and Nvidia [13][14]. - **Energy Construction**: The U.S. is facing challenges with competitive transmission bidding and has seen a significant increase in solar and wind energy curtailments [16][17]. Aerospace - The aerospace sector is marked by increased launch frequencies and advancements in military drone technology, with notable developments from SpaceX and China's aerospace initiatives [18][19]. Defense - The defense industry is witnessing enhanced cooperation among NATO allies and significant investments in autonomous weapon systems and military technology [29][30]. Robotics - The industrial robotics market is projected to see continued growth, with a focus on automotive and electronics sectors, despite a slight decline in installations in 2023 [32][36]. Industrial Equipment - The price indices for various industrial equipment categories, including motors and generators, show stable trends with some fluctuations, indicating a resilient manufacturing sector [33][41].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending a focus on high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors [4]. Core Insights - The aerospace industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with SpaceX targeting 170 orbital launches in 2025, a 27% increase from 2024 [1][18]. - The industrial robotics sector is expected to maintain a global installation level of 541,302 units in 2024, with a projected increase in demand driven by the re-industrialization trend and AI data center developments [32][36]. - The energy sector is facing challenges with the cancellation of $3.7 billion in carbon capture and decarbonization incentives by the U.S. Department of Energy, impacting several companies [16][17]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The U.S. stock market shows a steady upward trend, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching significant highs [7][8]. Infrastructure - **Data Centers**: The U.S. is collaborating with the UAE to build a 5GW AI super data center, marking a shift towards global standard output in AI infrastructure [13][14]. - **Energy Construction**: The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) faces regulatory challenges that could impact competitive transmission bidding [16]. Industrial Equipment - **Industrial Equipment Price Index**: The price index for electric motors and generators in the U.S. shows a 20% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand [2][33]. Global Energy - **U.S. Electricity Market**: The average retail price of electricity in March 2025 was $0.13/kWh, reflecting a 0.38% increase [4]. Aerospace - The aerospace sector is marked by significant advancements, including the launch of China's Tianwen-2 Mars probe and the development of new drone technologies [18][29]. Defense - The defense industry is seeing increased collaboration among NATO allies, with a focus on advanced technologies such as AI and unmanned systems [29][30]. Robotics - The industrial robotics market is projected to grow, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer for industrial robots [32][36].